Archive for October 12th, 2003

Four critical weeks

October 12, 2003

 



I am now convinced that the next four weeks will be critical in defining the country’s and Chavez’ future. While it will be difficult for the opposition, given the regulations approved, to obtain the four million signatures it wants, the Government feels quite threatened by it. Simply put, if the “Reafirmazo” (re-signing in Spanish) is widely successful and a number of signatures close to the number required to recall Chavez is gathered, the event itself might turn out to be the recall referendum, making the real event three months later simply moot. Chavez will simply become a lame-duck President. The world will know he no longer has the popularity or the mandate that he claims to have. Any attempt between that day and the actual recall date to stop the vote will be seen both here and abroad as a totally undemocratic act. In fact, the new regulations, by making it difficult to gather all of the required signatures,in some sense will also make it more difficult to question the results of the Reafirmazo. Delaying tactics simply become much harder to implement, given the deatiled regulations isued by the CNE. Each signature will be accompanied by the fingerprint of the person; each form will have a code, so that their origin and source will be known. This will make any delaying tactic by the Chavez administration much more difficult to implement. Thus, either the Reafirmazo is stopped or the Chavez administration will lose most of its ability to govern, even before the actual recall referendum takes place.


            The Chavez administration, with his actions, may be showing signs that it knows the signing of the forms may become a trap and it has now becomen more significant that the recall itself. Its actions in the last two weeks indicate a change in strategy. Obviously a more radical course is being developed, both locally and internationally. The once all-important international opinion seems to be less critical. The Chavez administration has not only told the US not to meddle in the internal affairs of the country, but it told the same to the OAS. The difference is clear; Venezuela has signed the OAS treaties that regulate human rights in the Americas. The Venezuelan Constitution explicitly says that such treaties are binding. Thus, the Chavez administration is beginning to play a dangerous game by acting this way and threatening not to obey the OAS’ orders on human rights. But this is likely the game Chavez wants to play. By appealing to nationalism, stirring the opposition into rash action and creating local incidents, the administration may want to generate reactions that will “force it” to postpone the Reafirmazo arguing that the conditions to carry it out at this time are not present at this time. If this happens, it is difficult to even guess where the country is headed……

Four critical weeks

October 12, 2003

 



I am now convinced that the next four weeks will be critical in defining the country’s and Chavez’ future. While it will be difficult for the opposition, given the regulations approved, to obtain the four million signatures it wants, the Government feels quite threatened by it. Simply put, if the “Reafirmazo” (re-signing in Spanish) is widely successful and a number of signatures close to the number required to recall Chavez is gathered, the event itself might turn out to be the recall referendum, making the real event three months later simply moot. Chavez will simply become a lame-duck President. The world will know he no longer has the popularity or the mandate that he claims to have. Any attempt between that day and the actual recall date to stop the vote will be seen both here and abroad as a totally undemocratic act. In fact, the new regulations, by making it difficult to gather all of the required signatures,in some sense will also make it more difficult to question the results of the Reafirmazo. Delaying tactics simply become much harder to implement, given the deatiled regulations isued by the CNE. Each signature will be accompanied by the fingerprint of the person; each form will have a code, so that their origin and source will be known. This will make any delaying tactic by the Chavez administration much more difficult to implement. Thus, either the Reafirmazo is stopped or the Chavez administration will lose most of its ability to govern, even before the actual recall referendum takes place.


            The Chavez administration, with his actions, may be showing signs that it knows the signing of the forms may become a trap and it has now becomen more significant that the recall itself. Its actions in the last two weeks indicate a change in strategy. Obviously a more radical course is being developed, both locally and internationally. The once all-important international opinion seems to be less critical. The Chavez administration has not only told the US not to meddle in the internal affairs of the country, but it told the same to the OAS. The difference is clear; Venezuela has signed the OAS treaties that regulate human rights in the Americas. The Venezuelan Constitution explicitly says that such treaties are binding. Thus, the Chavez administration is beginning to play a dangerous game by acting this way and threatening not to obey the OAS’ orders on human rights. But this is likely the game Chavez wants to play. By appealing to nationalism, stirring the opposition into rash action and creating local incidents, the administration may want to generate reactions that will “force it” to postpone the Reafirmazo arguing that the conditions to carry it out at this time are not present at this time. If this happens, it is difficult to even guess where the country is headed……

The contrasts of underdevelopment

October 12, 2003


JG sends in this picture taken in Coro. Under the sign Medical Department, prices are given for Polar Beer, normal and Ice……These are the contrasts of underdevelopment

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