Archive for July 10th, 2004

A little bit of everything, including a Phalenopsis Cornu Cervi

July 10, 2004

 


 



Toe left: Phalenopsis Cornu Cervi a Phal species.I got a flask at the Worl Orchid conference two years ago and have given away quite a fewplants to frends. This is the first to flower. On the right is a hybrid Phal. no name



This is Blc. Ronald Hauserman, an amazing hybrid, you can’t help but be awed everytime it flowers by its colors, size and almost cardboard consitency. Got it at Kawamoto Orchids, Honolulu, HI.


 



These are the same Laelia Purpurata Striata species from Brazil. Note the veins in the sepals. Love it!


 



Another Laelia Purpurata, this one is called Delicata, certainly deserves that name.

A little bit of everything, including a Phalenopsis Cornu Cervi

July 10, 2004

 


 



Toe left: Phalenopsis Cornu Cervi a Phal species.I got a flask at the Worl Orchid conference two years ago and have given away quite a fewplants to frends. This is the first to flower. On the right is a hybrid Phal. no name



This is Blc. Ronald Hauserman, an amazing hybrid, you can’t help but be awed everytime it flowers by its colors, size and almost cardboard consitency. Got it at Kawamoto Orchids, Honolulu, HI.


 



These are the same Laelia Purpurata Striata species from Brazil. Note the veins in the sepals. Love it!


 



Another Laelia Purpurata, this one is called Delicata, certainly deserves that name.

The spookiness of 2021……days?

July 10, 2004

Chavez always says that he will leave in 2021, which has no basis in our Constitution. Everyone thinks is 2021 the year, but could it be days? Well, he began his first term on Feb. 2nd. 1999. If he is revoked on August 15th. he will have been in power for exactly 2021 days. Spooky, no?

A real poll

July 10, 2004

Interpret it in anyway you want and however way you want. This week the first round of election to select the new Rector (President) of the Universidad del Zulia (LUZ) was held. There were three candidates, one pro-Government, two anti-Government. The two anti-Government candidates won with 77% of the vote.


It is true that the University does not have the cross section of the population and is not exactly representative; however, this represents a shift of some 28% of the votes from pro-Chavez candidates to anti-Chavez candidates.


 


Both Professors and students vote in elections for President of public universities in Venezuela. Abstention was low among Professors (30%) and high among students (60%).Universidad de El Zulia had been traditionally controlled by Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) party, a left leaning political part which supported Chavez in the 1998 and 2001 elections, but has since split form Chavez and is one of the main opposition parties.  With this vote elections in the three largest universities in the country UCV, LUZ and ULA have been won by opposition candidates. Public Universities in Venezuela are anything but right wing or oligarchic, so try to explain this to a pro-Chavez left winger from abroad.

Chavez can run if recalled according to upcoming decisions as leaked by a good source

July 10, 2004

No sooner had I written about whether Chavez could or not run that the President of the Venezuelan Supreme Court Ivan Rincon says today in an interview in El Nacional page A-2 (by subscription) that a decision is already written by the Constitutional Hall which allows Chavez to run., Rincon says that there is nothing that explicitly forbids Chavez from running in the Constitution so it is a very simple case. Thus, the President of the Court leaks the decision even before it is approved.


Well, this is the bizarre logic of this bizarre country. The Constitution explicitly says in Art. 233 that the election after the recall of the mandate will be to elect a “new” President to complete the term of the revoked President. Well, that word “new” to me is pretty clear, Chavez would obviously not be a “new” President to complete his won mandate. But what can I say, what do I know anyway? Clearly, the Court will do what Chavez wants. Except that Chavez can be defeated twice and he will be.


 


I also find another aspect of Rincon’s interview disturbing. This must be the only country in the world where decisions by the Supreme Court are known, announced and in some cases, distributed via the Internet days and weeks before the decisions are made. You would think that these guys would at least attempt to maintain an image of propriety, but I guess their ethics and principles have deteriorated so much that they do not even think there may be something wrong with what they are doing.


 


For completeness, since I am talking about the Venezuelan Supreme Court, this week the Court pensioned off three of its members, all anti-Chavez and they were replaced by all pro-Chavez Justices who were alternates of the Court. In this manner and with a single stroke, the Government now has a majority in the Court and all of the Halls but the Civil Hall, the less political one. This simple act, makes the new Supreme Court bill unnecessary, so don’t be surprised if all of a sudden the Constitutional Hall rules that the bill as approved by the National Assembly is unconstitutional. Amazing that they did not think of this clever subterfuge earlier. I am sure that whoever thought of it will be handsomely rewarded.

Aug. 15th.: Just another step?

July 10, 2004

I have been saying that people have built up their expectations too high about the meaning of the recall referendum on Aug. 15th. Some think August 15th. is a magic date: We vote, wait for the outcome, game over either way and that’s it. Well, it is and it isn’t.


If Chavez wins, for those like me that do not like Chavez and what he stands for, it means he will have two more years to control more and more of the state and do more damage to the economy. But if he loses, it will only be another step in a long road to get rid of him, but it may not be the final step. This point was proven yesterday; when Chavez himself said in Argentina that if he loses on Aug. 15th. he will run again thirty days later to replace himself and complete his term.


 


To me Chavez revealed his strategy in this statement. He will risk the recall because he thinks he can win or lose by so little that he could beat any candidate or candidates in an election thirty days later. Maybe he can. I actually believe his strategy will be to finance a third candidate that may distract 8-10% of the opposition vote, allowing him to win.  The only question is whether he can find such a figure, whether the opposition voters will be confused or not, and finally, and more importantly, whether Chavez will lose or not by less than 8-10% in the recall vote.


 


There is still confusion as to whether Chavez can or not run again if he is recalled. Some lawyers say the decision on June 15th. is not clear enough. I guess that is why I am not a lawyer, because it seems fairly clear to me.


 


Let’s examine it:


 


First the decision contains Art. 233 of the Constitution with the part that the recall is an absolute absence emphasized in black letters. Immediately after quoting Art. 233, it says:


 


“According to the regulation thus transcribed, the recall of the mandate given to the President of the Republic, according to the mechanism contemplated in Art. 72 of the Constitution would generate the absolute absence of the official, which will be filled according to….”


 


Then it looks at the mechanisms and concludes (I will insert in Spanish and English so that there are no nuances in the translation):


 


“Visto lo anterior, esta Sala observa que la revocatoria popular del mandato del Presidente de la República, de conformidad con los artículos 72 y 233 de la Constitución de la República Bolivariana de Venezuela, acarrea su falta absoluta en el cargo y, por ende, su separación definitiva del mismo por el período correspondiente.”


 


Which I would translate as:


 


“Given the above, this Hall observes that the popular recall of the mandate of the President of the Republic, according to articles 72 and 233 of the Constitution of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, implies the absolute absence in the position and thus, the definitive separation of the official for the corresponding period”


 


After this, the decision does clarify that Chavez may run in 2006 and is not explicitly restricted from doing so like Deputies to the National Assembly.


 


I would appreciate any “legal eagle” readers that can clarify where the confusion is still present since to me the phrase “definitive separation of the official for the corresponding period” seems quiet definitive, no?


 


In the end, this will not be cleared up before the recall and the response by the Coordinadora Democratica by Pompeyo Marquez is the correct one. Marquez simply replied that if Chavez runs, he would have to be defeated twice. That’s good, don’t make an issue of whether he can or not run, let the Court decide whenever it does and just tell him he will be defeated. If the SI vote wins in August 15th. by a nice margin, it will probably be temerary for Chavez to risk running again so soon after a bad defeat.

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