Archive for August 24th, 2004

On mathematical studies of the recall results part I

August 24, 2004

-In the comments below there are two simulations by ele and Gustavo, both of which claim that they get results of their simulations which agree with the results for the recall vote.


-I have received a Monte Carlo study by some Professors at UCV which reaches a different conclusion. Using data from 2135 centers, they use as the probability of participating the results of the CNE and the probability of voting ďSiĒ the vote for each center based on the results of the 15th. They do 100 simulations using a binomial distribution and reach the following conclusion:


 


i)                    The probability of 236 centers having duplicate ďSiĒ votes, as in the results, is less than 1%.


ii)                   The probability of having 6 centers having triplicate ďSiĒ votes is less than 25%


iii)                 The probability of having one center having four machines with the same vote is less than 5%.


 


-A study of the results for the Actas per Center, when compared to the exit polls shows a low probability for the exit poll sample coming from the population of the actas.


 


More on all of these as I have more information or I am allowed to say more.

No change at (in)Justice

August 24, 2004

An important change took place this week in Venezuela which should not go unnoticed. President Hugo Chavez changed his old Minister of the Interior and Justice Lucas Rincon (below left), famous for saying on the evening of April 11th. 2002 “The President was asked to resign and he accepted it” earning him the nickname Pinocchio, for Jesse Chacon who particiapted in the murders of innocent civilians on Nov. 27th. 1992 during the failed coup (below right)



A friend has now corrected me, telling me that despite claims in newspapers, teh guy below is not Jesse Chacon and above is the picture he sent of Chacon that same day after the takeover of Canal Ocho. he was there but did not pose for the icture below over the civilian guard at the TV station. I stand corrected.


No change at (in)Justice

August 24, 2004

An important change took place this week in Venezuela which should not go unnoticed. President Hugo Chavez changed his old Minister of the Interior and Justice Lucas Rincon (below left), famous for saying on the evening of April 11th. 2002 “The President was asked to resign and he accepted it” earning him the nickname Pinocchio, for Jesse Chacon who particiapted in the murders of innocent civilians on Nov. 27th. 1992 during the failed coup (below right)



A friend has now corrected me, telling me that despite claims in newspapers, teh guy below is not Jesse Chacon and above is the picture he sent of Chacon that same day after the takeover of Canal Ocho. he was there but did not pose for the icture below over the civilian guard at the TV station. I stand corrected.


One way dialogues

August 24, 2004

These imaginary dialogues could have been part of the comments section of this blog:


-January 2004, Juan Chavista and Pepe Opposition meet to have coffee:


 


JuanCh: You see, I knew there was fraud, Chavez is saying it.


PepeOpp: Come on Juan, just because Chavez says it does not make it true.


JuanCh: But you have to admit the signatures have the same calligraphy so it needs to be investigated.


PepeOpp: But the international observers saw the person gathering the signatures writing the names


JuanCh: Didnít you see the four cases ChŠvez showed on Sunday.


PepeOpp: That does not prove anything; itís only a small sample.


JuanCh: Letís do an audit of all the signatures


PepeOpp: Thatís ridiculous and a waste of time.


JuanCh: It isnít a waste of time, if it clears the air.


PepeOpp: But a sample will tell you the truth.


JuanCh: But Rodriguez said a sample was not valid.


PepeOpp: What does Rodriguez knows about statistics, he is a psychiatrist.


JuanCh: You guys just have to be patient, whatís the rush?


PepeOpp: The rush is this is going to take forever and thatís not good for the country.


JuanCh: Why donít you accept the truth, there was fraud and you did not get the signatures.


 


-August 2004, Juan Chavista and Pepe Opposition meet to have an arepa:


 


PepeOpp: You see, I knew there was fraud, the CD is saying it.


JuanCh: Come on Pepe, just because the CD says it does not make it true.


PepeOpp: But you have to admit the results are funny, so it needs to be investigated.


JuanCh: But the international observers saw the lines of Chavistas and said the results match.


PepeOpp: Didnít you see the coincidences and the exit polls the CD showed.


JuanCh:  does not prove anything, itís only a small sample and who believes in exit polls.


PepeOpp: Letís do an audit of all the votes


JuanCh: Itís ridiculous and a waste of time.


PepeOpp: It isnít a waste of time, if it clears the air.


JuanCh: But a sample will tell you the truth.


PepeOpp: How do you know where the fraud took place and if the boxes were changed?


PepeOpp: You guys just have to be patient, whatís the rush?


JuanCh: The rush is this is going to take forever and thatís not good for the country.


PepeOpp: Why donít you accept the truth, there was fraud and the ďSiĒ won.

One way dialogues

August 24, 2004

These imaginary dialogues could have been part of the comments section of this blog:


-January 2004, Juan Chavista and Pepe Opposition meet to have coffee:


 


JuanCh: You see, I knew there was fraud, Chavez is saying it.


PepeOpp: Come on Juan, just because Chavez says it does not make it true.


JuanCh: But you have to admit the signatures have the same calligraphy so it needs to be investigated.


PepeOpp: But the international observers saw the person gathering the signatures writing the names


JuanCh: Didnít you see the four cases ChŠvez showed on Sunday.


PepeOpp: That does not prove anything; itís only a small sample.


JuanCh: Letís do an audit of all the signatures


PepeOpp: Thatís ridiculous and a waste of time.


JuanCh: It isnít a waste of time, if it clears the air.


PepeOpp: But a sample will tell you the truth.


JuanCh: But Rodriguez said a sample was not valid.


PepeOpp: What does Rodriguez knows about statistics, he is a psychiatrist.


JuanCh: You guys just have to be patient, whatís the rush?


PepeOpp: The rush is this is going to take forever and thatís not good for the country.


JuanCh: Why donít you accept the truth, there was fraud and you did not get the signatures.


 


-August 2004, Juan Chavista and Pepe Opposition meet to have an arepa:


 


PepeOpp: You see, I knew there was fraud, the CD is saying it.


JuanCh: Come on Pepe, just because the CD says it does not make it true.


PepeOpp: But you have to admit the results are funny, so it needs to be investigated.


JuanCh: But the international observers saw the lines of Chavistas and said the results match.


PepeOpp: Didnít you see the coincidences and the exit polls the CD showed.


JuanCh:  does not prove anything, itís only a small sample and who believes in exit polls.


PepeOpp: Letís do an audit of all the votes


JuanCh: Itís ridiculous and a waste of time.


PepeOpp: It isnít a waste of time, if it clears the air.


JuanCh: But a sample will tell you the truth.


PepeOpp: How do you know where the fraud took place and if the boxes were changed?


PepeOpp: You guys just have to be patient, whatís the rush?


JuanCh: The rush is this is going to take forever and thatís not good for the country.


PepeOpp: Why donít you accept the truth, there was fraud and the ďSiĒ won.

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