Why I affirm that abstention in the manual vote was abnormally low

August 29, 2004

Many people have questioned (one even called me a liar in the comments!) or simply asked why I say that the voting centers with manual count had a very low abstention, which in my opinion can not be explained. This is derived from noting that abstention went down from 39% to 32%, when the manual count was included in the totals and this represented less than 1.1 million additional votes. But lets calculate it with more precision:


The CNE has not given a breakdown of the manual count, but my calculation is as follows, using numbers from memory:


 


The first day, the CNE announced the results of the electronic vote (with some manual centers) saying that the No had won with a number that I remember (it has been erased from the web site of the CNE) to be 4.9+ million votes with the SI getting 3.5+ million votes or so. Adding them gives a number of 8.5 million or so.


 


If my memory serves me right (It does not change the essence of the calculation) in this first report the CNE said abstention was very close to 39%. This means that the first report was 8.5 million out of a possible of 13.93 million votes


 


That left a possible 1.1 million additional voters, all of which came from centers with manual vote,  to reach the total number of 14.04 million. The CNE now reports that of those 1.1 million 1.05 million voted, and there are still some centers to be included, thus abstention was extremely low in the manual count, less than 4% and dropping as more Actas are taken into account.


 


This result simply does not make sense from many points of view, but that is what the CNE has published. It should also be investigated.

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