Archive for September 18th, 2004

My favorite orchid?

September 18, 2004


Above, a thriving Cattleya Intermedia from Brazil with about a dozen blooms and another dozen buds. It not only blooms and blooms and grows and grows, but look at how spectaculart the flower on the right is!



This is Cattleya Loddigesi Tony Boss from Brazil. Is this my favorite orchid? If it is not, it must be a very close call. I am always in awe as to how delicate and well shaped it is. The plant seems to be ready to die on me every year, but always comes back. Not easy to grow, but wonderful blooms, it is supposed to be the best Loddigesi there is, glad I have one!

On the news: From Ministries to plane crashes and fraud

September 18, 2004

-Chavez creates more Ministries. In 1998 when Chavez won his first election, he criticized the size of the State, reducing the number of Ministries from 21 to 15 by merging Interior with Justice, Health with Social Development, Education, Culture and Sports, Transport and Urban Development and Agriculture with Industry and Commerce. Since then, he has created six, including Housing (needed), Foodstuffs (what about Agriculture?), Social Economy (as opposed to what?), Culture, Higher Education Special Zones.


-Another Mirage crashed one more in a long series of Mirages and F16’s that have served as incredibly neat toys for the military, but unfortunately too many have crashed. At $15,000 per hour in fuel, maybe it’s for the better, the fewer there are the less they will spend. There are 13 left…Maybe it is time to buy more to defend ourselves from whatever! So glad the three submarines have not sunk beyond their established parameters (thanks Ed!)!


 



 


-The Prosecutor devoted to political vendettas Danilo Anderson is investigating the people that went to the Presidential Palace on April 12th. to see if they are charged with rebellion. So, the Generals were exonerated from rebellion by the Supreme Court so that now they will go after the civilians. I certainly hope they call General Lucas Rincon, the highest ranking General in the military to testify as to why he said Chavez had resigned on April 11th. Rincon was in Chavez’ Cabinet until August 18th. and remains the most mysterious link as to the supposed “coup” in April 2004, since it was his appearance that evening that led to all of the events in the next three days.


 


-Venezuela will sell US$ 1.5 billion in US dollar denominated bonds abroad in the next two weeks. Apparently $44 per barrel is insufficient to finance the revolution. Since Chavez said prices are on their way to $100 per barrel, the revolution should be safe.


 


-The People’s Ombudsman came out to request that the Bank Superintendence eliminate the SICRIT. This is the database that banks share to establish credit for people. The Ombudsman says this is a violation of their rights. Watch out TRW! Watch out consumers, you will no longer be able to get credit if this is approved!


 


-Still waiting to give my opinion on the latest Carter Center report. I will wait for Hausmann and Rigobon to give their oopinion. So far, it seems to me to be so silly, I don’t dare say more than that. They proved the votes and their signatures had a high correlation. Seems obvious to me, but….They also showed the random number generator works. The one in Excel in my PC does too, but that has nothing to say about what happened on the CNE computer. Better shut up and don’t start talking like a Venezuelan expert: Find ten Venezuelans, preferably men, ask them a question, eight out of ten will be experts on the subject)

On the news: From Ministries to plane crashes and fraud

September 18, 2004

-Chavez creates more Ministries. In 1998 when Chavez won his first election, he criticized the size of the State, reducing the number of Ministries from 21 to 15 by merging Interior with Justice, Health with Social Development, Education, Culture and Sports, Transport and Urban Development and Agriculture with Industry and Commerce. Since then, he has created six, including Housing (needed), Foodstuffs (what about Agriculture?), Social Economy (as opposed to what?), Culture, Higher Education Special Zones.


-Another Mirage crashed one more in a long series of Mirages and F16’s that have served as incredibly neat toys for the military, but unfortunately too many have crashed. At $15,000 per hour in fuel, maybe it’s for the better, the fewer there are the less they will spend. There are 13 left…Maybe it is time to buy more to defend ourselves from whatever! So glad the three submarines have not sunk beyond their established parameters (thanks Ed!)!


 



 


-The Prosecutor devoted to political vendettas Danilo Anderson is investigating the people that went to the Presidential Palace on April 12th. to see if they are charged with rebellion. So, the Generals were exonerated from rebellion by the Supreme Court so that now they will go after the civilians. I certainly hope they call General Lucas Rincon, the highest ranking General in the military to testify as to why he said Chavez had resigned on April 11th. Rincon was in Chavez’ Cabinet until August 18th. and remains the most mysterious link as to the supposed “coup” in April 2004, since it was his appearance that evening that led to all of the events in the next three days.


 


-Venezuela will sell US$ 1.5 billion in US dollar denominated bonds abroad in the next two weeks. Apparently $44 per barrel is insufficient to finance the revolution. Since Chavez said prices are on their way to $100 per barrel, the revolution should be safe.


 


-The People’s Ombudsman came out to request that the Bank Superintendence eliminate the SICRIT. This is the database that banks share to establish credit for people. The Ombudsman says this is a violation of their rights. Watch out TRW! Watch out consumers, you will no longer be able to get credit if this is approved!


 


-Still waiting to give my opinion on the latest Carter Center report. I will wait for Hausmann and Rigobon to give their oopinion. So far, it seems to me to be so silly, I don’t dare say more than that. They proved the votes and their signatures had a high correlation. Seems obvious to me, but….They also showed the random number generator works. The one in Excel in my PC does too, but that has nothing to say about what happened on the CNE computer. Better shut up and don’t start talking like a Venezuelan expert: Find ten Venezuelans, preferably men, ask them a question, eight out of ten will be experts on the subject)

Pedestrian application of Benford’s Law to Exit polls

September 18, 2004

I have been in computer hell ever since my laptop decided two weeks ago not to charge properly. Then I got a new charger and it’s the connector in the motherboard, so it may die again. Apparently the only solution may be to get a new motherboard from the States. When I finally got it to work it gave me an error, called Microsoft who said reinstall Windows, I did. Unfortunately, after installing Windows I could not get the Wireless network to even give me the right menu. Called Dell and had my first experience with a call center in India, very efficient, polite and knowledgeable and I am back on the air for the time being with my laptop.


Lots to post, for now, someone in the comments asked/said how come Benford’s Law had not been applied to the Exit polls, so I did it. Now, understand that all I did was plot the fraction ocurrenecs for a first digit for the exit polls for both the Si’s and the No’s and got the following histogram:


 



 


This seems to be textbook Benford’s Law for the data from the 325 centers polled by Proyecto Venezuela. I don’t know if mathematicians do other tests to evaluate how “good” or “bad” it fits with Benford’s law. If anyone knows, let me know.

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