Archive for May 31st, 2006

Another sweet deal for the financial system: The Revolution marches on!

May 31, 2006


You have
to wonder about this Government and the financial system. So much ideology,
attacks on the oligarchs and the rich, but the Venezuelan banking system has
made money hand over fist ever since the ignorant Colonel became President. I have
outlined in these pages how the Venezuelan financial system has benefited from
so many Government operations and gifts that simply make no sense. Yes, they are stuck with
absurd amounts of Government paper, but they keep making money as the boats
sinks.

The latest
measure this week was for the Central Bank
to increase the amount of foreign currency the banks may have from 15% of their
equity to 30%. So, in the midst of exchange controls, now all of a sudden banks
can increase their net dollar position by a factor of two!. Not even in the horrible times of the
IVth. Republic did this limit go above 15%, but now the revolutionaries double
it! Your everyday Venezuelan can’t protect himself or herself from devaluation,
but banks are allowed to increase their protection. What gives?

The
ostensible explanation given by Government officials is that this will allow
the Government to reduce the excess monetary liquidity without having the
Central Bank, which is already in the red and in deep trouble, issue more CD’s.
Well, as we say in the vernacular, this
explanation is simply “mierda de toro”.

You see,
banks have no access to CADIVI or exchange-controlled dollars, thus, if they want
to purchase dollars, they have to go to the parallel market or the Argentinean
bond market, controlled by the Government. In either of these, the Bolivars they pay for the dollars don’t
get sterilized or disappear from the money supply, but they simply go back into
the system. This only happens when you go through the Central Bank. In the swap
market the Bolivars go to whoever is selling the dollars. In the case of the Argentinean
bonds, they go to Fonden which in this way gets bolivars, since it only got
dollars when it was funded from the “excess” reserves taken away from the Central
Bank. The only reason Fonden wants to have Bolivars is to spend them, so the
Bolivars go back into the monetary liquidity very fast.

Thus, the
only likely mechanism for the banks to go from 15% to 30% of their equity in
foreign currency is to buy Argentinean bonds or buy Venezuelan Government bonds
directly from the Government whenever it offers one of those Bs/US$ sweet
deals.

And that
is probably where the explanation lays. In the last few weeks emerging bond
markets have been jittery and both Argentinean and Venezuelan Government bonds
have been very volatile. By “sweetening” the deal for the banks, they will be
more amenable to take the risk of acquiring foreign currency to protect their
equity via these bonds. Thus, the Government with this new measure has simply
guaranteed that they can place the US$ 600 million in Argentinean bonds it
still has in stock or any new Bs./US$ bond they may want to issue in the near
future.

Thus, the revolution
ain’t got any principles my friends and is willing to let the oligarchic capitalists
make a bundle if it fits their goals. The average Venezuelan can go screw his
or herself and remain unprotected from any devaluation, which of course will
make them poorer, but Chavez and the politicians simply don’t care. Politics above all!

Tale of the two realities of Venezuela

May 31, 2006

A friend pointed out these two contradictory headlines next to each other in today’s page A6 of El Nacional, that show the two realities Venezuelans are living under Chavez, mainly due to his own personal ambitions. On the left, the pro-Chavez Governor of Apure state complains that there are 750 Kms. of his state where there is no protection. Right next to it, our esteemed Minister of Defense Maniglia proudly announces that Venezuela is sending both military personnel and equipment to Bolivia.

As my mother says: Charity begins at home. I guess the corolary is: Not in an autocracy

Drei wanderer gegen Chavez

May 31, 2006


The above was the headline
of Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung in its coverage of the walk by Alek Boyd and
Patricia Wegenenast y Mohamad Merhi from Koblenz
to Brussels calling for clean elections in Venezuela. You
can follow the progress of the walk in
this site
expressly created for the walk. The description of the blog says
it all “For a pluralistic Venezuela,
with citizens free to elect their expectations for a better future”. For German
speakers you can also follow it in Patricia’s
blog
or the German version of Una Venezuela, Ein Venezuela. They will arrive in
Brussels
tomorrow where they will meet with European Union officials.

Please drop by and give them your moral support for this important
effort to raise awareness about our problems. As you will see in the pictures,
it is not easy walking 40 Kms. a day.

Thanks to Alek, Patricia and Mohamad for their effort!

Big News

May 31, 2006

Chavez may visit Venezuela today!

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