Archive for September 11th, 2006

Establishing limits on the size of crowds in Avenida Bolivar

September 11, 2006


Everytime
there is a rally in Avenida Bolivar, we hear how many hundreds of thousand people
were there. Let’s put an end to vague numbers, let’s calculate how many buses
it takes to fill Avenida Bolivar or how many people can be packed there. As a
side result, we can put limits on last Saturday’s Chavista rally.


Using
Google Earth, I determined the length of Avenida Bolivar to be 1,255
meters. To determine this number, I used the “ruler” tool in Google Earth as
shown in the image below by the yellow
line



This
probably overestimates the size of the crowd as a stage is setup for those
addressing the crowd, which takes up some 20-40 meters depending on the type
of stage used.

After
that, I used the same tool to measure the width of Avenida Bolivar as shown
here:



This came
out to be 27.5 meters.

Thus, all
of Avenida Bolivar has 34,512 squared meters.

The
question is then, how many people you can get into a square meter. This is
usually the debatable point when estimating crowds. A very desnsely packed
crowd has 6 people per squared meter. A loosely packed crowd where people are
at a comfortable distance from each other has 1.0 person per square meter. Freites
in Venezuela
has counted 2 people per square meter in rallies and 1.5 in recent marches, but
the correct technique is to actually take an aerial picture and count. But of
course, flybys are not allowed during rallies and marches by the Government.

We tested
this at work today and six people per square meter is certainly invasive and
extremely difficult to put up with for more than a few minutes. We decided that
1.5 to 2.0 would be a more adequate number. Note what this says, Avenida
Bolivar, jam packed cuold hold no more 207,000 people, so forget all those
presidctions fo 300,000 or even 1.5 million like what was made for last
Saturday.

Now, a
more reasonable number if the whole avenue is filled and not too packed would
be 69,000 people.

I then
measured the length of Avenida Bolivar as filled by last Saturday’s march in
Google Earth:

This came
out to 851 meters in length, which gave an area of 23,400 squared meters.

Now, from
the traffic cameras
pictures
, we know that the density was low in a large part of the area, so
that a density fo 2 would be too high and one probably too low, so that 1.5
seems fair and that is equivalent to some 35,000-36,000 people. From my earlier
collage of Chavista buses, we can say there are 12 windows per bus, times four
across it is about 48 people, 50 with the last row in each bus, so that 720
buses would be sufficient if nobody from Caracas goes.

Just for
completeness, here is an
analysis
which correlates the same pictures I used directly with the
traffic pictures

Just keep in mind this same analysis would apply to any static rally on Avenida Bolivar, whether pro or against Chavez, so there has to be consistency in future discussions.

(While I don’t have equivalent pictures of San Cristobal, I am told they filled 11 blocks of Ave. Bolivar for Rosales’ rally on Saturday, which is 18 meters wide. Eleven blocks is 880 meters, thus the length was comaprable but it was not as wide. However, San Cristobal is not Caracas. In the absence of pictures I will not say much more)

Fascist is, Fascist does

September 11, 2006


Somehow,
outright fascism is now all right with Chavistas, no more doublespeak, no more
gray areas, to wit:

Libertador Mayor Bernal
says
the workers in his office will not be pressured into voting for Chavez.
Why? Let’s hear his own words:

“These
actions will be unnecessary because the workers of the Mayors office of
Libertador are committed in a personal way with the revolutionary process, we
all know of the election there was at the referendum, in which side each of us is
located, that was public and evident. Don’t you remember that famous
list
that we decided to bury?

Can
fascist, illegal and discriminatory behavior be clearer than this? But there
was more…

–Besides
the ability to be reelected forever, Hugo Chavez announces
that he does not want multiple ideas; he wants a single party, a unified party,
a unique party. (This was quickly accepted by his party and the
Communist party is ready
to sacrifice itself) “A single party to represent the Republic! Let’s turn Venezuela into an
impregnable fortress, nobody or nothing should be able to come here and alter
the course of the revolution”

I wonder
what all the other parties that still support Chavez think of this narrow
thinking and a way for Chavez to control and manipulate them. I guess from now
on, they will have to be absolutely servile to the autocrat. No dissention, no
competition, no discussion.

Do I hear
death to democracy and long live fascism from the crowd? Heil Hugo or Heil Huguito?
Whatever happened to “sovereignty resides on the people”? Will it now be “sovereignty
resides on the party”?

–The
Secretary General of Accion Democratica, Henry Ramos Allup, a politician I do
not like very much, has been a leader of the abstention movement, saying that
conditions are not conducive to a fair election. In fact, he is slowly becoming
isolated because of this position after the Rosales candidacy has basically
unified the opposition.

Last week
the General Prosecutor’s office served Ramos Allup with a notice to go and
testify in a “case”. Today he found out
that he is being investigated for “defending” a crime. You see Ramos Allup
defended the escape from jail by union leader Carlos Ortega, arguing that Ortega
could not get a fair trial in Venezuela,
because the judicial system is controlled by Chavismo.

Thus anyone that expresses dissent can be jailed in Venezuela, you could jail half of Venezuela, including the Chavistas that defend
the purchase of Argentinean bonds that are simply the most corrupt racket in the
country’ history or mandatory loans by commercial banks, that are enriching
many Chavistas, after all, they are defending the existence of “crimes”

In the
end, this is simply a fascist way to get rid of your political enemies, Ramos
Allup simply has to get in line behind Uson, General Martinez, Ortega, 18,000
oil workers, the victims of Tascon’s list, Sumate leaders, Henrique Capriles,
Leopoldo Lopez, Brewer Carias and still counting…

Anyone reading this, who thinks he or she is a democrat, and still defends this
fascist Government should have their brain examined…

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