Archive for July 2nd, 2007

Bad June inflation numbers

July 2, 2007

Miguel is the economy guy. There is an important number out today and it
needs reporting even if Miguel is baking in Palermo.

The good news for the consumer is that as of Sunday the VAT is 9%, down 2%.
One of the lowest in Latin America. I think it is crazy but the government
of Chavez will do anything to control inflation, even compromising its
revenue source
.

But the good news comes with an expiration date: today the BCV announced an
inflation of 1.8% for June, 0.2% above what experts anticipated.

In other words, the Venezuelan consumer is paying about 0.2% less on July 2
grocery bill than it paid in June 2. Somewhere some chavista is preparing
some celebratory poster or TV ad to come out. You can count on that, almost
as much as a positive inflation number at the end of July, VAT going down
notwithstanding.

Note: the June inflation is about the inflation rate FOR A FULL YEAR in some
other countries or South America.

Spinoza

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