Archive for December 5th, 2007

Did the military pressure Chavez to accept the No win and did they make a deal with him to soften the blow?

December 5, 2007

1)    Chavez talks on Sunday about his dilemma

2)    Chavez says he knew the No had won early on Sunday

3)    Chavez
says today that on Sunday night he ordered military movements on the
Zulia and Sucre Governorships, because they had plans to destabilize

4)    Diario
Vea had a headline ready saying the Si had won. That’s fine, you may
want to be ready early, but as seen in the video below, the front page
of Vea also had percentages for the Si victory.

5)   Eighty hours after the polls closed on Sunday, the CNE has not been capable of producing a second bulletin with the results from the referendum

6) The shit hit the F.A.N. (totally stolen from Escualidus Arrechus in Caracas Chronicles) today when Chavez showed up at the press conference of the military high command

7)    The Mayor of Libertador District, Freddy Bernal, the same one that on April 11th.
2002 was taped calling for the Circulos Bolivarianos to come down and
fight the peaceful march that was ambushed and two dozen people died
and hundreds were injured, was taped Sunday night saying :

 
“Intelligence
says Rosales and Baduel are going to Plaza Bolivar due to the results
of the election, we can’t allow this ti happen as this has been a
bastion of the revolution….but the worst part is Bernal says “These are
instruction fro the fundamental leader….and await instructions, the
leader himslef via this network will tell us the actions to take…

www.Tu.tv

 
And today we are supposed to believe that the military did not pressure Chavez on Sunday?

Yeah, sure

Chavez calls the opposition’s victory excrement, announces plan to not follow popular will

December 5, 2007

Eerie show today, when the military
high command was holding a press conference to deny there had been
pressures on the President to accept Sunday’s results, when the autocrat
himself showed up. The video is right here (sound not great!):

Chávez y la victoria de mierda de la oposición
Uploaded by frankib

Among the lowlights:

–On Sunday, he ordered
military mobilizations towards the Governorships of Sucre and Zulia in case
the respective Governors decided to destabilize.(Note that he claimed last Sunday to have known he had lost since early Sunday evening)

–He
was also ready to take over the media and shut down TV
stations.

–He said four times the opposition victory was “shit” and his defeat
“dignified”. (I guess he means shit for him, or I am interpreting it
wrong?). By the way, saying that word is against his own muzzle law, which bans the use of such language on TV and radio.But autocrats are above the law.

–He also said that had the votes all been counted (???) the
Si may have won, but he did not want a victory like that. (Preparing us for
turning around the numbers on the A block?)

–He accused General Baduel of boycotting his militias

–At the end, he starts saying goodbye and the stops and turns around and says that he will pass an Organic Law to create the militias and the rambles about Sunday and how he had everyone monitored even from the air and how he had everyone infiltrated.

–Chavez had said earlier that the King of Spain had sent congratulations to the people of Venezuela and that was a first step in improving relations. He also said the Spanish Prince would be carrying a persoanl message for him from the King who told him to shut up and Chavez has asked for an apology. The Spanish Royal House has denied both the congratulations and the message from the King.

All in all, a very worrisome spectacle by the Venezuelan President, full of hate, absolute disdain for Sunday’s results and even the suggestion that he may do something about it. It was a message that will not gain him supporters or sympathy, it was a message that may only create fear in the Venezuelan population and ratify to those that did not go and vote and those that voted, why it was they wanted his proposal rejected.

The people have spoken and said No, how will Chavez press his revolution forward?

December 5, 2007

The “people”
have spoken and they have said NO. By voting No, whether the margin was meager or not, the
“people” the same ones that the President and the Assembly have always
said “are” the revolution and want the revolution, have said No to the reform. And
recall that according to the Supreme Court, sovereignty resides on the
people. They are even above the Constitution.

But
clearly, this outcome was nowhere in the plans of Chavismo. They
stuffed their Constitutional reform proposal with items, which had and
had not their rightful place in the Constitution and never considered
the possible consequences of a defeat. And now they have one.

Chavismo
has never been a strong one for respecting or even thinking too much
about respecting the Rule of Law, but strictly speaking, nothing,
absolutely nothing of what was contained in the Constitutional reform
proposal can be approved by other means at this time. It would be simply illegal.
The “people” said No on all of it and only the same “people” should be
able to change their minds on all of it. No Guiarara Repano name change
should be possible, no shortened work day or even social security fund approved,
unless the “people” explicitly approve it in a referendum.

Unfortunately,
it will not be easy to have the people express a new opinion. The President and the
National Assembly cannot make another proposal on these subjects during
their respective terms and it is a long five years away for a new
Presidential term, and Chavez can’t be reelected and the National
Assembly should be in place for two more years, before a new one that could make
a new proposal will be in place.

Of course, the Government or
the opposition could have a group of 20% of voters make a different
proposal with those ideas palatable to the electorate and have it
passed if it was not too politically contentious.

Then,
there is the idea of a Constituent Assembly, which I find simply to be
too uphill for Chavismo today. Think about all that would be required for it:
A referendum to approve holding an Assembly, an election to choose the
members of the Assembly, months of discussions in a Constituent
Assembly that may actually be fairly even and finally the approval of
the new Constitution. It would take all of 2008 to accomplish this and
meanwhile the economy (see previous post) may really get complicated
for the Government and its popularity. The “people” are going to be very restless if
things don’t improve by then, thus it is very difficult for me to
envision a Chavista dominated Constituent process that will end well.

Of
course, Chavismo has never been too respectful of form and process. It
could approve part of what was rejected on Sunday via decrees supported
by the Enabling Bill as suggested by Deputy Iris Varela today.
The Chavez dominated Supreme Court will likely back it. But unless the
range of what is approved this way is limited to the subjects that are
acceptable to the opposition, it may carry a huge political cost.

The
simplest way may simply be for Chavez to push his “revolution” the same
way it has been doing it in the last few years, by pushing the bounds
of legality. The Central Bank is really not independent, private
property has not been respected by the Chavez Government and even
the structures of organizations have been changed by Chavez without regards
for the laws, so what else would be different?

Ironically,
it was Chavismo’s refusal to truly split the questions in blocks that
leads to this quandary today. If the social benefit questions in the
Constitutional proposal had been voted as a separate block, they would
have likely been approved by the people.

But
of course, at the end of the day, this was all about Chavez’ indefinite
reelection and that is the main difficulty for the autocrat. There are
no easy roads that will take him there at this time and he no longer
can think beyond 2012. Which I am sure is what he is pondering and
wondering about at this time.

Note Added: It turns out that last night as I was writing this post, Chavez said in La Hojilla that he may go the route of having a “popular reform proposal” in which 20% of the population gather signatures with their proposal, as suggested above as one of the possibilities. To suceed, this would have to be limited to certain issues, but you can be sure it will include Chavez’ indefinite reelection.

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