Archive for December 7th, 2007

Second bulletin finally in after five days, with 94% of the vote in, No still way ahead

December 7, 2007
It seems that it is now truly official,
after five days, the 300 million dollar system, the drums (for communications), the donkeys (for transportation)
and the abacuses (or abaci, for computing with digits) managed to count an additional 6% of the
vote and with 94% of the vote counted the result is that on the first
block of questions the results is:

NO 4.521.494 (50.65%)
SI 4.404.626 (49.34%)

For a 1.31% difference and on block B:

NO 4.539.707 (51.01%)
SI 4.360.014 (48.99%)

For a difference of 2.02%

Nobody
was able to vote on the transient articles, so I guess they are as
approved as they would have been if block A and B had been approved, or any
combination of the two with one approved and the other not approved.

Abstention so far is 43.85%

As
with so many things in this country, it is not a matter of machines,
money or technology, it is simply management, expertise and dedication. That is
why we now fly in milk from other countries to compensate
for shortages, apparently continue to export suitcases full of cash, this
time to Bolivia and you can bet the opposition will go on vacation next
week, expecting their newly found political gains to still be here when they come back in
mid-January.

A serious critique of the defeat by a pro-Chavez theorist

December 7, 2007

Christmas is
creeping on us and the barrage of parties began in earnest this week,
tonight was my companies so I will not have time to post very long.
 
If there is one document everyone should read is this one
by German born Heinz Dieterich who lives in Mexico, one of the
“theorist” of the revolution, who is extremely lucid in his analysis
from the political aspects to the economic aspects. Perhaps it helps to
be removed from it all to view things so lucidly. For those that don’t
speak Spanish, some highlights:
 
On the reasons for the defeat:
 
¨The National Assembly
 
The
main cause of the defeat in Venezuela is the vertical system for the
conduction of the Bolivarian process. This is evident in its three
formal instances, in which the president has no counterweight
whatsoever: the Parliament, the Cabinet and the party. The Parliament
is essentially a resonance box of the presidential will where the
Deputies, controlled by the three “foremen” say yes to everything that
is proposed even if it is unworkable. The responsibility of this lies
in considerable part on the oficialists deputies who don’t want to lose
their perks.¨
 
“The warning signs: The ides of March

The
product that they pretended to sell to the people, the constitutional
reform was deficient. In fact, so deficient that it only managed to
convince one fourth of the electorate. It had absurd tactical clauses
such as increasing the presidential term from six to seven years,
unviable economic elements like the six hour workday and structural
proposals, like refounding the State on communal councils whose
implementation presupposed the existence of a revolutionary
dictatorship in Venezuela which the conditions are not given for.
 
Finally,
Ditereich writes the most lucid description of the country’s economic
conditions that I Have seen coming from of the pro-Chavez side:
 
¨Officialdom
has turned into taboo macroeconomic debate. Nevertheless, any economist
(note the any!) can infer from the functional equilibria necessary for
a market economy, that a problem s going to blow up. Inflation, already
around 18%, will receive a new surge of additional injection for the
purchasing power (liquidity) by the end of the year and will require
afterwards a considerable cool down period, which the opposition will
take advantage of. Administrative prices (defined by the State) and
price regulations for basic foodstuffs, foreign currency and the
internal consumption of energy, increasingly distort more everyday the
relationships between supply and demand and make the economy
uncontrollable, causing black markets, corruption, bureaucracy and
scarcity.

Unfortunately, Dieterich´s conclusions call for doing things that go against Chavez´personality, a bad omen for the future of the autocrat

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