Just to be clear, the wager is that Chavez will not be president beyond 2013.

I hope there is a low fat version of the reina pepiada!

Has anyone heard of any organized betting pool on Chavez? Kinda like an over/under on his rule.

Miguel, if so (perhaps in London), it might make a good topic for you to periodically follow. The U.S. military and intelligence agencies (sometimes these are oxymorons, but many times not) have used these types of things with some success.

Earnings at PDVSA down 67%

http://www.eluniversal.com/2009/11/19/petro_ava_ganancias-de-pdvsa-c_19A3079651.shtml

THe last time the subject came up, I told you that my belief is that his hold on power will not be forever, and that by 2012 he would be gone (well, 2013). You bet me an arepa, and I accept that bet and raise you a batido de lechosa.

I still think you are going to owe me that batido, plus I insist on a Reina Pepiada.

Seriously though, Venezuela is not Cuba, nor is Chavez Fidel. Having the guns on one’s side helps, but as was shown on 11-A, all it takes is one miscalculation for the guns to switch sides.

You may be more aware of the machinations inside than some, but never discount the people in the street.

Nice to read a decent blog. I gotta say, getting rid of Chavez through a riot will be hard, because he is extremely good at manipulating situations, and absolutely ruthless when putting blame on anybody but himself. Unless there is a complete breakdown of economy, electricity etc (which of course could happen as early as mid 2010), a riot won’t get him out.

As far as I know there have been a couple of military uprisings the last two years, but none of them got anywhere, which might actually be for the better.

So the only thing left is an presidential electionvictory, which would have to be massive (70%) to overcome CNE cheating.

In the short term the most important step for the opposition (and the whole country) will be to get a big representation in the National Assembly because it makes it a lot harder for Chavez to blatantly fake democracy. Today the AN is 90% cheerleaders. Having even 40% opposition would be huge, because the tyrannic nature of the chavismo would blatantly expose itself. They have shown themselves to not be able to handle dissidency elegantly. This would in turn affect popularity and hinder and expose fascist discourse and action in general, which again slows down the communist train (as clearly shown by the aftermaths of electoral victories of the opposition in regional elections).

Why are elections, albeit difficult, the main hope? Because the big majority of Venezuelans aren’t used to caring for their society in a significant manner. It’s absolutely horrendous to see that almost nobody organizes or does political activism while the country is going to pieces. I could talk for a long time about how incompetent and selfish opposition leaders are, but for now it’s enough to state that none of them have been able to significantly thrive on the huge discontent with infrastructure and crime disasters. No mass movement against Chavez is in sight. Only mass discontent and anger.

Another positive factor would be Fidel going away (not that I usually want to wish death on anybody) because most likely Raul would open up a lot to a Chinese model and the whole communist paradigm would loose a lot of prestige in Venezuela. After all, Chavez is primarily feeding his supporters dreams, and if the main dream is discredited it is a big issue.