Comments on: Thinking aloud: Do the electricty restrictions in shopping centers make any sense?

By: Ben Sek

Ben Sek — Sun, 28 Mar 2010 09:29:31 +0000

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By: moctavio

moctavio — Thu, 14 Jan 2010 01:15:13 +0000

Veneconomia article: Guri near collapse. Date: 2003

http://bit.ly/88hlh6

Whose fault is it?

By: Isa

Isa — Sat, 09 Jan 2010 02:51:06 +0000

Arturito, how come you did not quote us from this wonderful report from your Startfor friends:

Political Consequences?

An improvement in the weather, a change in the time zone, electricity quotas
and thousands of energy efficient light bulbs may effectively stabilize the
situation in the medium term. However, the long-term prospects of the
sector’s survival are dim without a massive influx of rejuvenating capital.
But Venezuela has enough money woes even in light of high oil prices, and a
steady source of reliably managed cash may not be available.

With no comprehensive solution in sight, energy scarcity may be something
Venezuela will have to get used to. A political response opposing the
government is possible, but the opposition remains disunited and hamstrung,
so its ability to use the electricity crisis as a platform to challenge
Chavez is likely limited. In the long term, however, the electricity
situation will contribute to the decline in the Venezuelan economy that
started in 2009 and shows no signs of slowing. As the economy declines, so
does the Chavez government’s ability to meet its populist spending promises,
which is a very serious long term threat to the regime.

By: moses

moses — Sat, 09 Jan 2010 02:41:34 +0000

Miguel:

No, thank you for listening ! I was lucky to get hold of an Opsis link that allowed me to download their monthly reports. I remembered the name and looked with Google ….

By: moctavio

moctavio — Fri, 08 Jan 2010 03:36:27 +0000

Yes, I finally got it when I read the Corpoelec presentation which had a better title for the graph. I ahve now summarized that presentation and other info in a new post on the whole problem. Thanks for your hlep!!

By: moses

moses — Fri, 08 Jan 2010 02:29:41 +0000

Miguel:

Regarding your question of 6-Jan 10:23 pm, about the graphs in the Opsis website (November 2009 PDF archives, page 33) the graph at the left is the water level (cota) from 2003 to 2009, and yes, on May 2003 the level was down to 245 meters. In November 2009 it was around 263 mts..

The graph at the right is the flow (Cubic meters per second) of the Caroni river for each month, from the periods of 1950 to 2009. You have minimums per month, averages and maximums. In red current year 2009. You can see that the lowest flow is from January to May and that the 2009-2010 trend is very close to the historic minimums.

So it it not just the case of the current water level, but of the downward trend which is very worrisome….

By: daniel duquenal

daniel duquenal — Fri, 08 Jan 2010 01:40:32 +0000

gringo

if it is not el niño it will be la niña, and then la sobrina and later la nieta, and if necessary tu abuela but it will never be chavez fault. but that is OK, for once it seems that even chavistas know even if they pretend to be full of forgiveness.

By: daniel duquenal

daniel duquenal — Fri, 08 Jan 2010 01:38:36 +0000

arturo

forgive me but i cannot see how you replying to my comment would put you off topic since my comment to you is on topic.

the real reason why you do not want to answer is that you run out of excuses for chavez, and so try to find a way to bail out of this thread.

“ils sont trop verts, dit-il, et bon pour des goujats”

By: Gringo (far from Caracas)

Gringo (far from Caracas) — Thu, 07 Jan 2010 19:24:12 +0000

Regarding what is the problem at Guri- low water level from El Niño etc., many commenters here have pointed out that the current water level at Guri is not abnormally low, and in fact is higher than for 2003 and most of 2004. Last October, Caracas Gringo posted A Black Swan Called Guri? I recommend that those who have not yet read the entire article to do so.
It matters because officials at the Guri hydropower plant/dam operated by Corpoelec subsidiary Edelca report that turbine unit No.2 – which is currently shut down for maintenance – vibrates abnormally when in operation.
The Edelca officials also report that the concrete spillway that funnels water into turbine unit No. 2 has suffered structural damage (“perforations”) about 93 meters above the turbine unit, which make it increasingly difficult to control the volume/flow of water running through the power generation turbine.
However, turbine unit No.2 is only one of seven turbine units currently out of service at Guri, which has 20 turbine units with a combined power generation capacity of 10,000 MW. The other turbine units offline at present include Nos. 5, 6, 8, 10, 12 and 16.
Regional newspaper Correo del Caroni reports that turbine unit No.8 is almost ready to be restarted.
But Edelca officials at Guri complain that Corpoelec’s insistence that the repairs be accelerated is creating a dangerously unsafe situation in the turbine hall.
One attempt to restart turbine unit No. 8 earlier in October had to be suspended when the turbine’s rotation speed red-lined.
Turbine unit No. 16 has unspecified operational/technical problems which Edelca officials decline to disclose, even off the record. But a union official at Guri tells Caracas Gringo that turbine unit No. 16 is also, like turbine unit No. 2, a prime candidate for a catastrophic failure.
The other inoperative turbine units – Nos. 5, 6, 10 and 12 – are in the process of being maintained/repaired and soon will be restarted, according to Edelca and Corpoelec managers.
But union officials at Guri warn that these inoperative units also have unspecified problems which technicians are having problems repairing.
The issue is not El Niño but that Venezuela is run by an out of control problem child who wants to run everything but lacks the competence to do so.

By: moctavio

moctavio — Thu, 07 Jan 2010 18:37:07 +0000

Thanks, I did not know Tal Cual was back, I will tranlate it.