Comments on: Venezuelan GDP numbers terrible, even if you don’t believe them

By: Hemska venezuelanska BNP-siffror, tro det eller ej « omvenezuela

Hemska venezuelanska BNP-siffror, tro det eller ej « omvenezuela — Mon, 23 May 2011 09:42:33 +0000

[...] På engelska. [...]

By: Venezuela: Turning off the lights of transparency | Setty's notebook

Venezuela: Turning off the lights of transparency | Setty's notebook — Wed, 29 Dec 2010 23:50:55 +0000

[...] a country where critics make sport of questioning official statistics, it was a pleasure to have credible numbers provided by what appeared to be [...]

By: Alexander Guerrero

Alexander Guerrero — Mon, 31 May 2010 11:21:26 +0000

There are reports –unofficial- from insiders at VCentral Bank that the real GDP “numbers” considered at VCB Board was between 7 and 6% negative growth.
Indeed my own -adjusted by two factors, devaluation and electrical system collapse- – estimations at the beginning of 2010, following the powerful impact of a hiperdevaluation of 100%, “forced” contraction in government expending and the collapse of public electrical system (75% of all electricity supply in our country) showed to be even larger (-12% in terms of real GDP). Consider that all of it signals and occurs in the middle of the twin’s deficits, a balance of payment crisis and fiscal crises. Therefore, the economy measured in terms of GDP will contract much more than expected.
On top of that you have to consider that private sector (de)capitalization process was running very fast during 2009, and in a great respect, that process was the consequence of many years of government strong and non-sense intervention, not only markets, but legal restrictions in labour laws, tax regulations, and other “socialists” regulations. Private sector disinvestment was caused not only by the more publicity factors like currency overvaluation and government capturing of a large parts of imports, but due to a big deal of restrictions already incorporated in many laws which run the economy just from the approval of the new constitution in the year 2000.
A look at the structure of trade -Venezuelan imports from 2003- will discover the degree of (de)capitalization and disinvestment of private sector. We observe that intermediate, capital, and raw materials imports were growing (at smaller rates of GDP) and even decreasing. Data on imports of consumer and final goods were growing rates larger of GDP growth in these years.
In the last two years 2009 and 2010, we are witness of a government expropriation razzia of private business and today this “policy” is reaching one of the most important and larger private sector business economics –POLAR.
Taking all of those factors into account, and I modeled them, a negative growth of 5% might look unbelievable. I continue to forecast even a bleaker outlook for the remaining 2010 year, in spite of NA elections, which take place in September 26th.

By: Speed Gibson

Speed Gibson — Sat, 29 May 2010 18:52:28 +0000

daniel asks “when will this idiot get out of here”

the answer is when you people grow some balls and do something about it instead of waiting for The Messiah Obama to do it for you…..

you people need your Bunker Hill moment…..get one with it already

By: Kevin

Kevin — Fri, 28 May 2010 22:17:59 +0000

Miguel,

Bloomberg has a headline today, “Venezuela to Ban Brokerages From Bolivar Debt Sales.” Also according to information on Bloomberg (not a story just listed as information on bond auctions) there have been several apparently failed bond auctions in the last few days.

I’m wondering if the GBV is losing the ability to do debt financing. If they lose that, they will have to resort directly to the printing press. THAT is the final step to hyperinflation.

By: Franklin Carvajal

Franklin Carvajal — Fri, 28 May 2010 00:17:39 +0000

Hey,
Guess who is going to create the backbone of the new foreign exchange system: El Imperio!!! You guys are just too funny…

http://el-nacional.com/www/site/p_contenido.php?q=nodo/138886/Economía/Bloomberg-hará-plataforma-para-sistema-de-bandas

By: LD

LD — Thu, 27 May 2010 17:49:45 +0000

The BCV speaks of preliminary data. Guess what? I’m convinced that the action against the permuta-market is a smoke screen too. It’s always the same, bad data get released “tarde, mal y nunca” . Looks a lot like Goebbels…
“De acuerdo con estimaciones preliminares, el Producto Interno Bruto (PIB) a precios constantes experimentó en el primer trimestre de 2010 una disminución de 5,8%, respecto a similar período del año anterior.”
http://www.bcv.org.ve/c4/notasprensa.asp?Codigo=8562&Operacion=2&Sec=False

By: Mitzy

Mitzy — Thu, 27 May 2010 16:56:19 +0000

Interesting Washington Post’s article on Venezuelan economics and HC self-destruction:

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/postpartisan/2010/05/hugo_chavezs_implosion_continu.html

Less than pretty options at the end…

By: Fred

Fred — Thu, 27 May 2010 15:28:17 +0000

O.T. I can’t recall how many times I’ve seen/heard that Venezuela is preparing/prepared to counteract an invasion from the Empire …..

I just saw this and couldn’t help laughing:

Grupo armado irrumpió en Fuerte Tiuna para llevarse 465 mil Bs.F.

http://www.noticias24.com/actualidad/noticia/156985/

By: moctavio

moctavio — Thu, 27 May 2010 14:35:39 +0000

I agree Carlos, Sivensa reported a drop by volume of all of its products between 20% and 35% in 1Q10 due to low demand and rationing, this is a very real company that did not shut down completely nor did it send workers home.