Jose Serra throws Chavez’ hat (or spat?) into the Brazilian Presidential race

July 26, 2010

(If those pictures had been taken here, we would have scenery like this)

When Brazilian Presidential candidate Jose Serra decided to make Hugo Chavez a campaign issue, coming out and saying that even the trees in the Amazon jungle knows that the FARC seeks refuge in Venezuela, he may have begun the end of this chapter for Hugo. Because Serra is still ahead in the polls and neither Lula nor candidate Dilma Rousseff want this to become a campaign issue, like it did in Mexico and Colombia.In fact, this is not the first time Serra invokes Chavez or Iran to note the sympathy of Lula’s PT party.

Thus, I can imagine today Hugo Chavez is getting calls from Lula asking to quickly restore relations with Colombia and do something to show there is no FARC in Venezuela. And even without the calls, the thought that Brazil may go to the other side and become another country to antagonize, should be sufficient to give Hugo nightmares.

And it makes you wonder about Uribe’s intentions when he began his accusations. While people have given the whole Uribe-Santos rift or not rift a lot of thought, I ahve not written about it, because I know these guys can be simply Machiavellic and there can be no simple interpretation to what has happened. To me, Uribe and Santos had a plan, much like they did when they “welcomed” Hugo into rescuing Ingrid Betancourt. Once he wad drawn in, they played him like a fiddle and we all know how bad Hugo ended up looking in that affair.

I mean, as I write, Santos is in Argentina of all places, perhaps pushing his version of Trapping Hugo V2.0.

The same is happening here, whether the Brazilian elections are part of it or not. In the end, the video by Spanish reporters shows Venezuelan military telling them how many guerrilla camps are there and where they are and it is not just two camps, it’s like “here, here, here, here and here too”. So, Serra is right, even the trees and the soldiers in the Llanos know there are FARC guerrillas in Venezuela.

Thus, I predict that events will accelerate in the next few days to bring the whole Venezuelan invasion circus to an end, so that Rousseff can extricate herself from this issue before Serra milks it to death.And Chavez will be left with no issue and still losing popularity and not having his last Uribe jump in the polls.

Oh yeah! And Cardinal Urosa will be going tomorrow to the National Assembly. Will Chavez feel surrounded for once?

6 Responses to “Jose Serra throws Chavez’ hat (or spat?) into the Brazilian Presidential race”

  1. Roger Says:

    FARC bases in Brazil are common knowledge http://www.brazzilmag.com/component/content/article/86-may-2010/12188-brazil-says-farc-guerrillas-have-base-in-brazilian-territory.html The end of Lulaisimo seems to be near!
    Reports state that there are between 1500 and 2000 FARC and 87 odd bases in Venezuela. That is a big number considering that Colombia has 5000 or so and places like Irak and Afganistan don’t have much more and all are consuming Billions in military response. Sending a Venezuelan force of 1000 will do what? In the past 50 or so years much larger forces have gone out after insurgents or whatever with no results. Hell, they could not even catch Teodoro Petkoff probably also known as El Geeko!
    This is mad… Allowing insurgents to operate is counter to any government for they actually operate their own government laws, taxes and all. In short they usurp the power of the state and worse international law. Does not matter whether their commies or taliban the results are the same. Ever notice this kind of trouble is in drug and oil countries like Irak, Colombia and Afganistan?

  2. Gringo Says:

    My reaction to the Spanish video : soon the Venezuelan army will be smaller by a soldier or two, if not already. Not good to embarrass the boss, even if one is telling the truth. Captions in Spanish: can’t understand the provinciales. :) I have occasionally seen movies from Jamaica with English captions.

    It does not make Thugo glad to hear Spanish TV say that it may not be an issue of the FAV letting the FARC stay, but that the FAV may not capable of rooting out the FARC.

    Agreed that Santos and Uribe are very skilled chess masters. What they did to free Ingrid Betancourt was masterful. We on the sidelines are most likely not going to figure their moves out ahead of their next move.

    Would Lula throw Thugo under the bus to increase the chances of his candidate winning the election? Does a bear defecate in the woods?

  3. Nit the Picker Says:

    “Because Serra is still ahead in the polls”

    Do you have a link for that? The newest poll I could find on the web ( http://www.stabroeknews.com/2010/world/07/24/brazil%E2%80%99s-rousseff-widens-lead-in-election-poll/ ) has Serra down by almost double digits.

  4. Roy Says:

    Yes indeed… The political winds are changing.

    OT: A friend of mine noticed something interesting in listening to Oppo candidate speeches. They NEVER use Chavez’s name. They refer to him as “The President of the Republic” or similar, but NEVER refer to him by name. I will be watching this to confirm. If it is true, it represents a new higher level of leadership, strategy and discipline than we have seen in the past.


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