Venezuelan pollsters were unusually cagey in this election and they were right to be. Given the uncertainties in the undecided voters, the phantom Ni-Ni’s, as well as the hard to predict abstention and the lack of detailed polls in each district, it was somewhat daring to try to predict the outcome.
But as they were cagey in public, in private it was a different matter spewing out theories and predictions, most of which were simply wrong. They should have kept quiet.
So, without further ado, here is why I paid attention to Daniel and Quico more closely than most pollsters. In fact, in a report I write about Venezuela I used their analysis to predict 65 Deputies for the oppo and 50% of the vote. Better than if I had used most of the “experts” below :
Constant Fail!: Seijas. Chavez’ pollster was telling us Chavismo would get 62% of the vote with a 3% error. Sorry Seijas, you are getting tiring, please try to narrow that error. For that matter, why not do a real poll, not one Chavez wants to read.You seem to be always wrong. Was it 65% or 62% in the 2007 referendum? Fail!
New and repeat Fail: GS XXI: Merentes used to run it and have 20% errors. Now it is Jesse Chacon’s time. The former Minister of Science predicted 110 Deputies and a majority for Chavez. Not bad, less than 15% error, in a military and militaristic world that must be acceptable, in the case of polling and statistics: Fail!
What’s wrong with you: Big Fail!: Datanalisis. If you know that it is hard to predict, why try? But you did. With a huge number of undecided you somehow decided love for Chavismo would prevail and turned a 28% for Chavez to 26% for the opposition poll with 40% undecided into a Chavez victory. Sorry, it just did not work, even if you tried to fix it via Twitter once you knew the oppo had won: Fail!
Not bad, given your imprecision: I always find Schemel of Hinterlaces somewhat vaporous, but he got it mostly right this time around when he predicted an opposition victory with a 34 to 32% advantage. Not bad, you have been wrong before, but you get a gold star this time.
Best in category: Consultores XXI. Time and time again, they get it right (Except the 2004 recall vote where they were calling for a small victory by Chavismo, funny no?). They said 62% for Chavismo in 1998 and 2000, but even Chavistas don’t listen to them. But they did it again, This analysis of the effect of abstention nailed it on the head and that was a key factor:
But it is clear Daniel and Quico/Juan, without the resources and just good old fashioned thinking, do a much better job.