Best kept secret in Caracas? Chavez has PC?

June 23, 2011

Seems to the best kept secret in Caracas, Chavez has prostate cancer, his prostate was removed and prognosis is not so hot. The news and the uncertainty is spreading like wildfire, even the Wall Street Journal is running with it.

The story is, at least consistent with the way it has played out.

133 Responses to “Best kept secret in Caracas? Chavez has PC?”

  1. m_astera Says:

    From the WSJ piece:

    “Speculation coming from Cuba and Venezuela has focused on the possibility that Mr. Chávez has prostrate cancer, and has had his prostrate removed.”

    Does this mean he can’t lie down ever again?

  2. moctavio Says:

    Thats exactly what it means, starts with eu, ends with nuch

  3. ElsaLario Says:

    Jeez, is that what they call poetic justice? How bitchy will the autocrat get?

  4. Hedgie Says:

    Time to go long Venny, may be volatile, but no Chavez, we go up 400 bps at least.

  5. moctavio Says:

    Gringo: All I know is contained here:
    La tan anunciada operación de rodilla no fue tal. Fue una extirpación radical de próstata. La vanidad (hombría) de HCh los llevo a inventar lo de la rodilla.
    Resultado de biopsia post-op fue malo. Se planificó viaje a Cuba para hacer PET scan en el CEMIC (querían evitar traslado en Caracas a uno de los dos centros privados que tienen PET scans operativos) y determinar si había metástasis.
    Para distraer la atención de la enfermedad, y contra la opinión de los médicos, se programó viajes relampago a Quito y Brasilia.
    Llegando a Cuba la subió la fiebre y lo llevaron directo a CEMIC. Al llegar detectaron una infección inguinal severa post operatoria.
    A los pocos días queda controlada la infección, pero los resultados del PET scan son poco alentadores al verse actividad celular anormal en los huesos.
    Se determina que hay que tratar con radioterapia y se fijan sesiones diarias por 25 días, descanso de 10 días y otras 25 sesiones.
    Hay mucha preocupación medica por el tema oseo y no se decide aun como tratarlo. Especialistas de Alemania, Rusia y España han visitado el CEMIC.
    Hay mucha discusión sobre como anunciar todo esto, pero están preparando contingencia. La caída del pelo no se puede solventar en el caso de Chávez con peluca y su estado anímico ha sido terrible; es fatalista y cree que esto se lo “hizo” alguien. No recomiendan que tome sus medicinas para la depresión mientras esta en radioterapia.
    Hay posiciones encontradas sobre el secretismo: parte de la familia dice que la gente no es “pendeja” y sabe que algo esta MUY mal; la otra parte de la familia considera que si se sabe que esto es mucho mas grave o el presidente podría estar incapacitado por meses se desataría una guerra dentro del chavismo que ningún miembro de la familia sobrevivirá.

  6. Gringo Says:

    Miguel Octavio, thanks for the detailed – and immediate- reply. Wherever you are these days, you still have a finger on the pulse of Caracas.

    ( On the thread, “A Tmeline of Chavez’ Mysterious Illness,” where Miguel Octavio had posted some comments about the prostate cancer, I had posted: the following:
    After reading the above thread on the WSJ article on “prostrate cancer,” which said such rumors were floating around Cuba and Caracas, I was going to ask Miguel Octavio if he had heard of any such rumors/ gossip circulating. No need to ask him after reading the above .[comments from Miguel Octavio on that thread] )

    I can understand why there has been silence on this. While there are Chavistas throughout the institutions, and Chavez has modified or created institutions to maintain his power, his power is not institutional but personal. Chavez IS the “revolution/robolucion.” His partners in crime have the collective charisma of a shipping container of rotted PUDREVAL food. Their leadership ability consists in leading a suitcase of dollar bills to an intended destination.

    It is going to get interesting, very interesting.

    I think there may be some impending bargains on land in Barinas.

  7. Roy Says:

    While this scenario does seem to fit the facts, it is still just rumors and we should be cautious about neglecting other interpretations. However, if true, the next weeks and months could get very… interesting.

  8. BILL DIXON Says:

    WELL ALL SOUNDS WONDERFUL GOOD THINGS HAPPEN TO THE RIGHT PEOPLE. HOPE YOU GET WHAT YOU NEEDED AND DESERVE LONG LIFE PRESIDENT BUSH…..

  9. Mike Says:

    Not that the story per se is not believable, but once Pca is diagnosed (Typically DRE & biopsy), the NEXT step is a PET / CAT scan to determine if it has spread, typically to bones in the case of Pca.

    If it has, a radical prostatectomy – conventional, laproscopic or robotic (Davinci) – is of NO benefit, since the cancer has spread and is stage 4 (terminal). The treatments in this case are radiation and hormonal (to block testosterone to control / stop further spreading – the marker being PSA). Many different forms of the latter 2 exist (I doubt in Cuba however) and sururvival can still be years, as Pca typically is very slow growing (but not always).

    However, any of these scenarios does not explain his silence, unless he is so depressed that he can’t bring himself to face his destiny, or something else went wrong somewhere (stroke?), or they have him sedated for some reason. And of course we don’t know if in fact he has Pca.

    Btw, none of these treatments causes hair loss. Quimotherapy, which may cause hair loss, is only used if everything else fails to treat Pca, because it is not clear if it provides even minimal benefits.

    • LD Says:

      I’m with you Mike, it is not a perfect explanation. If HCh had wanted, he needs only to take a plane and go to Cuba for the scan. It could go unnoticed if he wants.
      I can only think of a late discovery of PC, leading to initial treatment (hormonal suppresion and subcapsular orchiectomy) in Venezuela and a possible immune-therapy in Cuba (they have some interesting treatments -don’t subestimate them-).
      But It remains highly speculative.

      • LD Says:

        But (thinking and remembering), *if* he had a PC and it was discovered late, they would do a prostatectomy anyway if the metastasis are not ubiquituos (at least here in Germany) and try the hormonal-(beginning bevor the operation) and radiotherapy. With some luck it could work. The immuno-therapy of the cubans maybe another one, but apparently is experimental yet.
        The swelled face makes me think of the hormonal treatment, but it could have other causes.
        Maybe it is right, maybe not and he comes laughing in 10 days, we would see…

  10. OldSouth Says:

    Well, he did want to be president for life…

    Be careful what you wish for, as is often said in these parts.

    • loroferoz Says:

      Took the words out of my mouth. This kind of wishes should be answered with irony.

      Screwing your countrymen for life, alright! A short life (and no screwing of the other kind) it will be then.

      I also cannot feel sorry for him, if it’s true.

  11. LD Says:

    The silence could be simple a total control of information, not a health issue, to block any cues. But it is a risky decision for someone like him.

  12. m_astera Says:

    If this prostate problem has been ongoing for a while, it explains how he could stand in front of the cameras talking for six hours or more without taking a piss break.

    Also worth noting: Not many last long after fifty radiation sessions in sixty days.

  13. m_astera Says:

    I wonder how much cash etc is going to be leaving Venezuela on private jets and yachts in the next few weeks.

  14. island canuck Says:

    The better question is:
    What does this mean for our future? 6 months? 1 year? the elections?

    Is this a good thing or a bad thing?
    Will it mean more chaos?
    Or is this the first step to a possible recovery?

  15. maria gonzalez Says:

    Well the post-operation infection after prostate cancer can be very bad. My uncle 76 year-old, was operated two years ago, he is diabetic so he got a fungus infection that keep him in the hospital for 12 days after the operation with very high fiber. Also the doctors needed several days to culture the fungus to administrate the correct antibiotic. If the infection manifested during the trip, probably they needed several days to know what infection. My uncle recovery was slow and he was depressed for a while. He was chemically castrated, but his is a more mellow individual now… So if Chavez survive this, he may have a change in personality after the testosterone level is decreased. However, Chavez is very young for PC and the younger you are the worse are the consequences.

  16. Glenn Says:

    Can you be a caudillo sin testerone? How ironic, if true.

  17. John Barnard Says:

    I think my head will explode if Chavez leaves this world before Castro.

  18. Mike Says:

    Interesting, LD, your comment re operating even if metastasis is present. Here (US), they will not operate if lymph nodes are positive, much less if there are mestastases. Also, here, laproscopic / robotic prostatectomies are a 2 day affair: surgery on day 1, stay overnight and leave around noon next day, so if they have this technology in Cuba, it could also have been done in secret. Traditional “open” surgery has a recovery time of 4 – 6 weeks and high risk of large blood loss, infection and others.

    There are so many variants in terms of procedures, progression and stage as well as timeline just for Pca and of course as you said, he may reappear Alfred E. Newman style: “what, me worry?” and unleash an extra dose of rage on the people of Venezuela. But maybe, just maybe there is a group of military leaders with a conscience who close the door on him for violating the constitution. Just dreaming….

    • LD Says:

      I have to correct myself, it was too early in the morning ;) , no, if there are metastases the prostatectomy is no more viable. Some (bone-) metastases could be operated to stabilise the bones, but it has no curative effect anymore. Then it is all to the hormonal- and radiotherapy, later chemotherapy but the game is over then.
      (As my father has PC -but he is in the late 80s- I read a lot, but I’m not an expert)

  19. Daveed Says:

    “prostrate cancer”, not “prostate cancer”?
    “former tank commander-turned president” not “former paratrooper commander-turned president”?

    This apparent sloppiness undermines Mr. De Cordobas’ credibility.

  20. BertieA Says:

    PC usually takes a very very long time to develop and kill you. Most of the time the patients will die of something else. This is not what the medical industry wants you to hear or what most readers of this blog want to hear, but it is the fact…

    • LD Says:

      But it comes to the case, if *you* have a quickly developing PC *your* chances are bad. Independently of all the statistics.

      • LD Says:

        And yes, nearly all men die with some cancer cells in his prostata, but only a portion of us get a quickly developing PC.

    • Mike Says:

      You are correct BertieA.

      Statistically, 1 in 6 men will be diagnosed with prostate cancer but only 3 % die from it. The believe is that actually an even much higher rate of men will develop prostate cancer (at advanced age), but many never know about having it, or won’t be treated (other than watchfull waiting), because there is no benefit in terms of life expectancy.

      Just read that Venezuela is now governed by Twitter from Cuba. Of course nobody knows who actually writes the Twits. There is no doubt in my mind that HC is incapacitated and unable to speak for unknown reasons, but certainly not directly related to Pca.

  21. ErneX Says:

    I wish the guy a long life, in a prison cell.

  22. Carolina Says:

    I’m having nightmares thinking that if all this is true, and he had his prostate removed and maybe other things, and he survives….we’ll have to keep listening to his 4 hour long speeches now with a very high pitch voice!!!!! OH NO!!

  23. Miguel Octavio Says:

    If you look at the tweets, they say sent from blacberry, i dont believe there is a blacberry network in Cuba

    • Olibaron Says:

      Hahahahaha! Wel you cannot say that he does not deserve this..

    • Ricardo Says:

      The BlaclBeryy Twitter app will work with an available Wi-Fi connection to the internet.

      • LGL Says:

        Of course. But if you’re going to go through all that trouble to have it set up in a hospital room, you might as well bring in a laptop for the same amount of effort, which would then beg the question of why didn’t he just video chat via Sype or just pick up the phone.

        I know this guy who died a year ago. His girlfriend uses his FB account to keep his memory “alive”. Even chats using his screen name. Very creepy

  24. Bruni Says:

    John, I don’t know if this PC thing is true or not but I do know that in terms of longevity, the genetic odds are against Chávez. Fidel is catalán, so he has longevity genes, which the typical venezuelan from the plains do not necessarily have.

    • Kepler Says:

      Bruni, do you have some evidence on the Llanero’s life span?
      Just curious

      • Correfoc Says:

        que raro Kepler, buscando pruebas, de lo que todo el mundo dice, por que EL habra hecho un estudio, y comprobo que tal y que se yo.
        por que eres tan pesado pana?
        Correfoc

  25. Olibaron Says:

    Looks like his party is in panic. The tweet makes the suspicion of PC even greater

  26. Glenn Says:

    I’ve have never believed that Chavez actually physically typed anything in tweeter so no surprise it’s from a Blackberry. He has his minions you know. At the same time, it should be easy to validate if Blackberry works from Cuba. Ask Babalublog


  27. [...] rumors are flying, and now even the news services are mentioning that Hugo Chavez’s extended absence from [...]

  28. RWG Says:

    Did Hugo Chavez pass his governing powers to Raul Castro and Fidel Castro? Was this covered in the Enabling Laws passed in 2010? Is this the final push for the Castros to take over Venezuela? You never know.

  29. Dr. Faustus Says:

    How to prove that it is indeed prostate cancer….

    For those of you familiar with Monty Python’s ‘History of the World,’…
    In order to protect the honor of the Vestal Virgins of Rome all eunuchs attending to the women were required to stand at attention whilst a scantily clad belly dancer performed in front of them. Any reaction, ahem, would quickly determine the imposter or imposters. Now, on July 5th, if we could find a buxom, bikini- wearing Venezuelan Godess to perform in front of all those South American dignitaries and,….and if……….oh never mind.

    • island canuck Says:

      I very much doubt he will be here on July 5 but it’s an interesting idea :-)

    • Mike Says:

      Dr. Faustus and others:

      While your story is certainly funny, it is however not true that men with Pca will automatically have ED and incontinence problems. It’s a complex subject, but just as a quicky (no pun intended), there are nerve sparing surgery techniques that leave approx. 90% of men “functioning” rather well afterwards. And if they don’t, there are many solutions nowadays that let them carry on with their “manhood”.

      However, knowing Chavez’s macho personality, he would not be satisfied (no pun intended) with alternative solutions, should he need them. I’d predict that he would be further enraged by the “why me” question.

      Also, for all that believe or hope that he will die of Pca say in 2011, it won’t happen. Maybe of something else, but not of Pca (if in fact he has it).

      Sorry.

    • Steven Says:

      “History of the World” wasn’t from Monty Python, it was a Mel Brooks film.

  30. mediocriollo Says:

    If this is true this is worst case for Chavez and Chavismo that shows that he is merely mortal! They need him be assasinated to keep up the anti imperialism rubbish. I cannot imagine if he does die that they (PSUV/chavistas) will ever admit that it was to cancer or whatever. Look for the poison/conspiracy theories.

    • Gerrardo Gordon Says:

      Chavez created a Ministry of Conspiracies to keep track of all supposed attempts on his life. The Ministry ran out of space the first week and has a three back log. Surely one of these conspiracies with fit with PC.

  31. Per Kurowski Says:

    In times like these there is no way of really ascertaining whether the news are true or whether it has been seeded, by any side of the spectrum, in order to make a point now… or make a point later. I guess we will just have to wait and see. But indeed it is the problem and tension that results from the government not being totally transparent and forthright about what is happening.

  32. GWEH Says:

    This means Smartmatic is out of the election business. They have run their course and doubtful those old and new machines will ever see another presidential election in Venezuela. They may run Phillipines one more time as they dump their Phillipines machines at a price that cannot be refused.

    I think Chavez is history and look forward to the future!

  33. Pol47 Says:

    Every citizen of Venezuela should pray that Chavez die quickly and set the country free from his rule.

    May the god above smile down on the people of Venezuela.

  34. tleon Says:

    If Chavez goes, does this mean the Castro brothers will need to find someone else to have anal sex with or just swap off on each other?

  35. Dr. Faustus Says:

    Thanks for that excellent medical clarification. I was just having some fun with it. But I agree, psychologically, Hugo’s “why me” question must be devastating. Let’s not forget that this is a very simple man with a very simple mind whose climb-up the government ladder broke all the laws of the Peter Principle. Those whom the Gods wish to destroy, ……

  36. Julio Says:

    Bruni,

    Fidel’s father was just a gallego. There are many questions about his mother, whoever and whatever she was, including her possible origins in the Canary Islands. His fellow countryman Franco lasted quite a few years.

    • syd Says:

      yes, I recall having read that, too, that Fidel’s family name has gallego origins. As for Kepler’s request for actuarial measures by region, I must say that I agree with it. Just because the life expectancy on a Japanese island is considered higher than average, means little in the face of individual experience, moreover where there occurs a nutritional variation with the norm. And let’s face it: Chávez’ nutrition (likely, too, lifestyle) has not appeared optimal or steady, over the last 12 years. My speculation is based on the visual, thanks to Ch’s repeated appearance in the media, over that period of time.

  37. moctavio Says:

    Chavez’ health this year has not been great, even before the “knee” or whatever problems, he cancelled 8 Alo Presidentes because he was not feeling well or to give space to promote xxx in the first four months of the year. That is 50%!

  38. cal Says:

    I agree with Mike: PCA is rarely so swift. Remember that François Mitterrand was already suffering PCA when he became president of France (age 65), governed for 14 years and still had a few months to spare. Moreover, it’s difficult to believe that such a valuable asset for the Castros would have been left without monitoring until PCA developed into metastases. Today early detection is easy by monitoring PSA, free-to-total PSA ratio and PSA doubling velocity.

  39. ElsaLario Says:

    Oh! I dont want him to go, I certainly hope “que no se le pare mas” and that he is debilitated, looks bad and does a terrible, long and suffering campaign before his loss in 2012 as people reject the “new and not improved” Chavez

  40. m_astera Says:

    Venezuela has stumbled along through a dozen years of a completely incompetent and even actively destructive leader and is now getting along with no leader. Seems like Venezuela is pretty flexible and adaptive.

    I’ll give it through the weekend. If no real word on or from Hugito by then, he’s history.

    In the meantime, true Venezuelan patriots (and matriots) might want to keep an eye on who is trying to rapidly exit the country with what.

  41. HalfEmpty Says:

    Everyone is frightened, both sides are paralyzed it seems. Why are the opposition so quiet? This is a god given moment, the flank is exposed and you won’t get a better chance.

    • maria gonzalez Says:

      HalfEmpty,
      What exactly you suggest the opposition should do about Chavez absence? I think that the best thing for the opposition is to be quiet and let the rojos make a mess of themselves trying to explain what happen to Chavez.

      I think they have to concentrate in the replacement of the Contralor and they should not let the rojos step on the Constitution with this issue.

  42. GWEH Says:

    “Venezuela’s Sanctionable Activity” Part 1

    “Venezuela’s Sanctionable Activity” Part 2

    C-SPAN

    http://www.c-spanvideo.org/videoLibrary/event.php?id=195038

    http://www.c-spanvideo.org/program/VenezuelaSa

    http://www.c-spanvideo.org/program/VenezuelaPa

  43. metodex Says:

    i don’t know if this is relevant but i saw news of a GNB and a Polivargas found with 3 million dollars.
    I don’t know the details but ye know…i love speculating

  44. GWEH Says:

    I recommend the CPAN links for best quality… the opening statement is interesting.

    • ErneX Says:

      One would have thought that since we are on the internet, you would be able to link to said links…

  45. clamto Says:

    It would be interesting to have an educated guess of what actions of the red team would confirm this theory… for instance I just read that Maduro said that Chavez is in control… It reminds me of the “we will never devaluate the Peso” or “the Peso is strong” as I heard in Mexico many times in the 80′s…. to be followed by a mayor devaluation a few weeks later…

  46. albionoldboy Says:

    Chavez is in deep doo doo, and uncle Fidel can’t get him out of it. There is no way with a presidential election coming-up, that Chavez would miss-out on the 200th year celebration of Venezuelan’s fight for independence, even if they had to stick a broom stick up him for support.

    The real question is why is Fidel stalling about Chavez’s health? One can only imagine that he wants time to gain support for his man, Elías Jaua, when you have one member of a Triumvirate die, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triumvir or lose power you end up with civil war, Jesse Chacón and Diosdado Cabello will have to fight it out for power, directly or with a straw men.

    The big fear for Castro, is to gain support from voters they throw Cuba, and his ALBA gang, (long considered even by Chavez diehards, as parasites) under the buss. The fact that all the Chavez top party hacks are so quiet, speaks volumes.

    • GeronL Says:

      I think Chavistas will split into more than 2 groups and fight each other. Unfortunately the opposition may split into many more groups too.

  47. GWEH Says:

    c-spanvideo.org/program/VenezuelaSa

    c-spanvideo.org/program/VenezuelaPa

    The hearing was not the venue to disclose or announce anything. Mack indicated more info available in classified setting. There seems to be a disinformation campaign going on as evidenced by exchange between Rep. Rivera and Kevin Whitaker. Dept. of State will not move against Venezuela for they are 1) clueless and 2) giving deference to Santos “plan” (whatever this is).

  48. GWEH Says:

    Wally Makled was major piece in US toolkit and mere months pass before unforseen contingencies make you wish he was around. Today’s congressional hearing was a sorry event as is the whole Obama administration’s policy towards Venezuela. Peor q Bush

  49. Dr. Faustus Says:

    albionoldboy Says:

    June 24, 2011 at 5:20 pm
    “Chavez is in deep doo doo, and uncle Fidel can’t get him out of it. There is no way with a presidential election coming-up, that Chavez would miss-out on the 200th year celebration of Venezuelan’s fight for independence, even if they had to stick a broom stick up him for support.”

    Exactly correct. ….July 5th.
    That’s the date to watch. Is he going to Margarita Island, …or not, with or without a broom handle…. The Defense Minister says he’s coming. He’s telling El Universal that he’s preparing for it on a daily basis. July 5th. Beware of other people watching in the shadows with that “lean and hungry” look. July 5th. Beware the Ides of March,….no, wrong month. July …..named after Julius Ceaser. Cassius and Brutus waiting in the wings. Et tu, Raphael? July 5th, …a date in history.

  50. Glenn Says:

    I’m feeling prescient tonight. Chavez will be in Margarita and this will have been much ado about nothing. I’d bet Chavez is rolling on the floor in laughter at the attention and speculation going on this week. Dear Venezuela- not even God will get you out of this mess.

  51. nomi Says:

    Luis Miguel was dead a few months ago and gave a concert last week. Do not speculate, just focus on how to solve the problems Venezuela has.

  52. LGL Says:

    this is what Nicolas Maduro said today coming out of his meeting with the secretary general of UNASUR (quoted from Correo del Orinoco):

    “De Europa, de Asia, el mundo pendiente y acompañando a (Hugo) Chávez en esta jornada que es una batalla para la recuperación definitiva de su estado de salud”.

    El también canciller de la República instó a los venezolano a mantenerse en pie de lucha y seguir acompañando al Presidente en esta gran batalla por su salud, la cual “al final será una gran victoria de nuestro pueblo”.”

    Twice he references the “battle for HCh’s health.” Very odd choice of words if the president is merely recuperating from surgery…

  53. moctavio Says:

    Particularly when the Minsiter of Defense said Chavez was “stronger than ever”

  54. moctavio Says:

    Nuevo Herald tomorrow:

    En estado crítico la salud de Chávez

    http://www.elnuevoherald.com/2011/06/24/967505/en-estado-critico-la-salud-de.html

  55. Kepler Says:

    Miguel

    l can believe Chávez is this or that, but I definitely would not pay too much attention to that article.
    It really has the typical tone of something being fed by the US intelligence when it knows nothing more than your cleaning lady or personal doctor do…or just a journalist’s prolific imagination.

    “dijeron el viernes fuentes de inteligencia estadounidenses.”

    “Las fuentes, que hablaron bajo condición de anonimato”
    OK, so CIA or DEA reported to Miami Herald: look, don’t tell them who I am but…”

    Why would they do that?
    “dijeron que no podían confirmar versiones de que…versión que está siendo susurrada con cada vez más frecuencia en las altas esferas venezolanas.”

    OK, but they do know the other stuff and they know “el estado de salud del mandatario venezolano…se encuentra en un estado crítico; no grave, pero sí crítico, complicado”

    And then the top: one of the sources “cuya identidad no puede ser revelada debido a la sensible ubicación en la que se encuentra.” I suppose that is another source, right? Strange mix.

    Geez…this reminds me of the very sloppy statement by UK minister Gates about Gaddafi flying to Venezuela, he could not confirm or something but he knew from good sources…the very moment he said that I knew he knew nothing more than a mango tree I know in Venezuela and he just thought, in a very stupid manner customary to those people, that such a statement alone would precipitate things and he was completely oblivious to the fact that any refutal of such a statement would actually strengthen Gaddafi, as in fact, happened (well, here it is not the caseo of strengthening or weakening but just veracity). Probably hadn’t he said that more people from Gaddaffi would have shifted sides even if Gaddafi had reappeared.

    I mean: these are the guys who some months earlier lost dozens and dozens of memory sticks with sensitive data, who forgot also some stuff of theirs in a train.

    These guys can definitely hack and screen emails (mine, yours, anyone’s) with relative ease. They a lot of time know much less than you or even me or even “anyone else” from the region.

  56. Kepler Says:

    Sorry, but that second map is a bloody fabrication, as usual. They really overdid the red colour, though. It is just so completely rubbish!

    There is definitely cooperation from Venezuelan officials with drug traffickers but so is there with Colombian and Mexican and many more.
    This is ridiculous.
    Most cocaine is still produced in Colombia.
    Geeez…these movements are so predictable.

  57. Will W Says:

    Move over Lina there’s another piece of trash heading your way at the landfill…make room for Hugo!

  58. megaescualidus Says:

    Miguel,

    We have thought Chavez’s illness over and over. You may have sound sources for this story. However, there’s a possibility it is all a fabrication (Hugo Rafael is capable of it, and more). It would serve at least three purposes.

    When he returns to Venezuela, he would do it as a hero (“Chavez has dodged a bullet one more time”) which would increase his popularity. In the mean time the country has descended in a certain degree of chaos (that is, more chaos that the usual level of chaos), as with, for example, the situation with the jails. And third, an opportunity is created to purge disloyal followers (PSUV members, FAN members) and anyone who starts talking too much. All of this with, obviously, with the 2012 electrions as a backdrop.

    This is a very real possibility, and it may be THE reality of all that’s going on. Are you very confident your story is real?

  59. moctavio Says:

    I don’t buy that story at all, it may be that now they want to turn it into, but I dont buy it, here is why:

    On May 29th. I wrote my first post on Chavez’ illness. I did it because a very good source told me he had something “painful, debilitating, not life threatening” and that the knee was a cover for this. Everything else that has happened since confirms in my mind the truth of the original story, but the new facts come from a different source. Those may or not be precise, but I do not buy the set up story at all.

    In fact, I find it curious that if the set up story was true, he would tweet yesterday morning and then go silent again. I think an overzelous flunkie decided to tweet in reaction to the spreading news and then stopped.

  60. LD Says:

    It looks like it run out of control now, look at google news… The words of Maduro are taken as “lucha por la vida”… I don’t know what is really happening, but I don’t think they wanted something like that.

    • LD Says:

      but, ok, it could be back on time for the 5th July and “he won the battle” and a new heroe is born, etc…

  61. megaescualidus Says:

    Miguel,

    Point taken. Staying away and going silent for so many days is against his personality. Though he may be ill (“por ahora”) no doubt he will turn the situation around to his advantage. In the mean time, the oppostion seems to have taken a vacation (it is summer time, after all, isn’t it?)

  62. island canuck Says:

    Well it looks like the rats are coming out of their holes.
    Diosdado Cabello has apparently been talking to military leaders about the “transition”.
    http://www.noticierodigital.com/2011/06/ocando-diosdado-hablo-de-la-%E2%80%9Ctransicion%E2%80%9D-en-reunion-con-militares/

    I now am beginning to have some feelings of hope that we won’t have to deal with his highness anymore.

    The problem now is to keep the rats like Cabello, Jaua, Assami, Maduro, Flores, etc., etc. from taking over the country.

  63. GWEH Says:

    Kepler, US Intel is not behind the MH article… it’s the other way around, the article author(s) contact their sources in USGOV. Regarding the map are you referring to the suspicious activity tracks from the video? That data is true there’s no reason to fabricate AFAIK.

  64. Kepler Says:

    Gweh,
    I seem to recall a couple of very similar maps from the US about drug trafficking for the last years. It seems the last one they showed has changed from the one I remember for the very same time.
    I do not doubt there are lots of military involved in drug traficking in Venezuela, but so are there in Mexico and Colombia. More in Venezuela? Very probably, but I doubt it is as portrayed by those guys. If you look at the map, it would seem almost as if 95%> of flights go now through Venezuela and towards Central Caribbean. I believe that as much as I believe the WMD
    maps shown at UN.
    .

  65. Kepler Says:

    By the way, Gweh: I will write later about cocaine in Venezuela. By all means the evolution is worrying and the government’s reactions very fishy. But this stance from the US is rather hypocritical. There is more rotten material all around than just Venezuela’s. And if anything they should put their house in order with consumtion, just like they should do that here in Europe as well.
    No export without demand.

  66. GWEH Says:

    Kepler, the ‘suspicious maritime and air activity’ tracks first appeared around 2004 in a government report and then in Jane’s. I have rarely seen it published elsewhere (Congressional report and Plan Colombia website). The 2007 tracks Mack showed is the first update I have seen.

    Check this out:

    Cautadas más de cinco toneladas de cocaína en el estado Bolívar

    Caracas, 25 Jun. AVN .- La Oficina Nacional Antidrogas (ONA) y la Guardia Nacional Bolivariana (GNB) incautaron un total de 5.052 kilos de cocaína en el estado Bolívar.

    Así lo informó este sábado El ministro del Poder Popular para las Relaciones Interiores y Justicia, Tareck El Aissami, a través de su cuenta Twitter @TareckPSUV.

    El Aissami resaltó que se trata de uno de los procedimientos más importantes en materia de decomiso de drogas realizado en el país.

    “ONA y GNB realizaron uno de los procedimientos más IMPORTANTES en materia de incautación de DROGA. en Bolívar se incautan 5.052 kilos de COCAÍNA”, escribió el titular de Interior y Justicia en la mañana de este sábado.

    Minutos más tarde, agregó que con este decomiso se suman, hasta la fecha, 22 toneladas de drogas incautadas en lo que va de año.

    “Con este golpe al narcotráfico en BOLÍVAR suman al día de hoy, 22 toneladas de droga incautadas en lo que va de año 2011”, escribió El Aissami.

    Con relación a este decomiso, el ministro del Poder Popular para la Información y Comunicación, Andrés Izarra, agregó que esta acción representa la segunda incautación más grande registrada en la historia de Venezuela.

    “GNB decomisa 5 toneladas de cocaína. Segunda incautación mas grande en historia Venezuela”, publicó el ministro en su cuenta twitter @IzarraDeVerdad.
    09:39 25/06/2011

  67. GWEH Says:

    found a 2007 map (probably the one Mack showed yesterday):

    http://www.cipcol.org/?p=590

  68. GWEH Says:

    Kepler, I’m also very critical of USGOV war on drugs. concerned about Mexico/Juarez. we have different views on where best to fight the problem. For cocaine go to Venezuela.

  69. Kepler Says:

    Yeah, I know…every time the US make some big anouncement about drug trafficking in Venezuela the minister of Justice in Venezuela announces the discovery of several tones of cocaine.
    I wrote in January (although in German) about that…back then I was predicting the Venezuelan government would discover 42 tones for the end of this year. So far it goes according to “plan”.

    Gweh,
    How is it possible for 95% of the cocaine flights in Latin America to pass through a passage that is about 200 km broad from Central Venezuela to the Dominican-Puerto Rico area?
    I mean: are they using the newest Airbus from Guárico to San Juan or what?

  70. GWEH Says:

    they use twins with certain models preferred for their payload and range capabilities. They land or drop in Haiti where it goes overland to DR then PR then US (this is one route). All law enforcement, military and government officials along the way are corrupted.

  71. bobthebuilder Says:

    I may get proved wrong but I’m very skeptical of any story professing the end of Chavez. How many rumors, counter-rumors and downright lies transgress Venezuelan news daily?

  72. GWEH Says:

    Bob, we know fear when we see it

  73. Miguel Octavio Says:

    Bob: I dont think what chavez has is necessarily fatal, butas the last seven weeks shows, he has to reduce his visibility and activity, for a Government facing myriads of problems and an election next year, this does not help at all. Up to now, I had believed Chavez would win in 2012, to me his health problem is a game changer.

  74. moses Says:

    Latest Gossip:

    http://twitter.com/#!/WikileaksAR

    WikileaksAR Wikileaks Argentina
    ALERT! The president of Venezuela Hugo Chavez died in Cuba this morning.
    hace 30 minutos

  75. moses Says:

    LaBichaOficial Berenice Gomez
    Señores mi fuente A1 dice que Wikileaksar miente, que HChF está vivo en La Habana. Yo sigo como Santo Tomás.

    http://twitter.com/#!/LaBichaOficial

  76. Gringo Says:

    moses: from your last two posts, it would appear that Twitter is Gossip Central. An old tendency in a new technology.

  77. moses Says:

    Just a sample of some of the rumors ….

  78. GeronL Says:

    If he kicks the bucket, who is to say they won’t pretend he is still alive for a while?

    just kidding.

  79. LD Says:

    If Fidel is alive, I would think the chances for Hugo are not that bad… Be patient, don’t get overexcited, if he doesn’t show up on 5th July, OK.

  80. Dr. Faustus Says:

    The rumors on Hugo Chavez have gone ballistic. Is this a death watch? Some news sources say his condition is “critical.” Other say he is already dead. What in the name of Jehova is going-on? Does anyone have a ‘reasoned’ explanation as to what is taking place?

  81. m_astera Says:

    Power vacuum is as good a term as English has. Chavez has routinely cut the legs from under anyone who might present a threat to his own preeminence, disagree with him, or make a move without his express consent. He has surrounded himself with toadies and incompetents whose virtues are that they are no threat to him and can be bought cheaply or intimidated easily.

    The opposition? Does one of them stand for something on principle or have a vision? If they do you haven’t heard about it because of the reasons listed above: If Chavez had seen them as a potential threat, chances are they would never have been allowed to run for office.

    I’m enjoying thinking about Fidel’s position and options, none of which look very good without his pudgy protege.

  82. Roy Says:

    It really is so that the truth is stranger than fiction. You just make s__t like this up.

    What we have right now is an information vacuum, and since nature abhors a vacuum, every rumor is getting sucked in and analyzed. I really have never seen such a circus of speculation.

  83. Charly Says:

    To sum it up, with or without His Nibs, the place is a fuck-up.

  84. GWEH Says:

    On June 10th, the locally host ed MRE website was defaced:

    http://www.lapatilla.com/site/2011/06/10/le-hackearon-la-pagina-a-la-cancilleria-de-venezuela-imagenes/

    MRE website back online after two-week absence:

    http://www.mre.gob.ve/

    MRE is now hosted in the geographical center of CONUS “Wizard of Oz” country!


  85. [...] a hurry said another of the sources. “That was 72 hours ago.” El Nuevo Herald (Spanish)The Devil’s Excrement calls it the best kept secret in Caracas, wondering if he has prostate cancer and postulating that [...]

  86. Dave Says:

    Chavez did NOT go for “Cuban” medicine. They flew in a team of real doctors from Spain, just like for Castro.

    Hopefully Chavez will be room temperature real soon. Viva Venezuela Libre.

  87. not important Says:

    It is all faked.

    They are trying to emulate a kirchner style grief & sorrow fueled rebound.

    And in that order, the more human misery they get to arise from the haters, the more effective the grief rebound will be, with their emotionally connected people.

    And masterfully executed.

    • Marypuchy Says:

      I am thinking it is a farse also………… besides, this whole story sounds way too good to be true………… I hope I am wrong but I believe they gotcha hook, line and sinker!

      He’s had some clever advisors behind him all along. I’m betting on a July 5th opposition smack down…………

      If it were to be entirely true, someone for sure would be tempted to “step in” or “speak up” and take control. There is way to much at stake to stand idle.

      Venezuela is like being traped in “the twilight zone!”

  88. moctavio Says:

    I dont buy the farse story, they may want to make it look like one now, but the guy definitely hit a rough patch.

  89. Speed Gibson Says:

    the real fun will be after El Mucho Macho Numb Nuts dies…..who will take over? Not that greasy disco Foreign Minister Maduro…ewww….I suppose it will be up to the Cubans to decide….the Venz people gave up control of their country a long time ago…..

    maybe the next leader will cancel all those idiotic weapons sales from Russia

    • maria gonzalez Says:

      This is not going to happen, he may be sick, he may have PC, but he is not going to be kill by it soon….He is just doing what he always does…waiting for the best moment to appear.

  90. m_astera Says:

    Not a farce, not a trick. No chance of that as long as Chavez is in control. I say that because his ego is too big to allow even the impression of weakness or illness, much less something that reflects on his physical manhood.

    If the initial diagnosis was prostate cancer, which seems likely, at this point all sorts of complications could have come up, including MRSA from surgery, bad reactions to drug treatment or radiation therapy. An iatrogenic source is quite possible, meaning that the treatment he got made the condition worse or, more likely, initiated whatever it is that is now the main problem.

    I’m guessing he’s comatose; if he were even able to speak his words could be transcribed and posted online.

    No way in hell is Cuba going to take over Venezuela. Given the chance to brainwash two generations of schoolchildren, maybe, but they haven’t had that chance and won’t get it. Despite whatever Marxist rhetoric the Chabistas may parrot, they don’t believe or practice it themselves. Venezuelan society is individualist, not collectivist.

    • Gringo Says:

      I say that because his ego is too big to allow even the impression of weakness or illness, much less something that reflects on his physical manhood.

      Good point. Humility and Thugo mix like oil and water.

  91. moses Says:

    Latest gossip on Nelson Bocarnda´s twitter:

    http://twitter.com/#!/nelsonbocaranda

  92. Doug Williams Says:

    Debemos orar……por el cancer!

  93. estrias Says:

    Just how have you find a way to build this type of fantastic group regarding commenters to your web page%3


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