Now that the Human Rights Court of the OAS has ruled that Leopoldo Lopez’ political rights were violated by the Venezuelan Government, will he be allowed to run?
My gut feeling says no, although there are arguments for saying they will.
Basically, it depends on the Government’s perception (and polls) on how it affects the current race.
Currently, Henrique Capriles is the clear front runner with almost 60% of the preferences in a race that even includes Lopez. However, it will not be the same poll if Lopez is openly campaigning and is allowed to register.
Thus, it boils down to whether they think Lopez takes sufficient votes away from Capriles to allow a third, and more easily beatable, candidate to get past both Lopez and Capriles.This could work both ways, if Lopez has no impact on numbers, this would give Capriles even more strength.
My gut feeling is that they will not let him run for a simple reason, a Capriles/Lopez or Lopez/Capriles duo would make a fearsome campaigning team with no links to the IVth. Having said that, Capriles could still say he would name Lopez as VP, even if he is not allowed to register for the primaries.
Additionally, accepting the decision means all of those banned from public office due to a decision by the Comptroller would be covered by the decision.
Not an easy choice for the Government…somehow I like that…