Archive for February 14th, 2012

Chavismo’s Attack On Capriles And The Opposition Begins With Force

February 14, 2012

We all knew it was not going to be an easy road, but Chavismo has started its attack on Capriles and the opposition with  force. I did not have time to blog about the Supreme Court’s decision to order that the voting notebooks should be preserved, while the Mesa de Unidad (MUD) had promised the people they would be destroyed. Fortunately, there was a leak somewhere, as Bocaranda wrote about it this morning the possibility in his Runrunes and the MUD ordered the notebooks incinerated before the decision was announced. We note the same Supreme Court ruled in 2009, in a case of a Chavista candidate, that the voting notebooks are confidential and could not be handed out. But consistency is not a characteristic of this Court, which just follows orders. (Neither is precision, the decision has the wrong year on it!)

And in a second, very disturbing development, above I post the complete page of an article published in the webpage of the Government’s radio station, written by a reporter that goes by the name of Adal Hernandez. This so-called reporter, was present at Monday’s press conference by Capriles, asking questions in a very aggressive tone. But instead of writing about what Capriles said or the answers to his questions, he launches this attack on the opposition candidate. Just in case the article disappears from the webpage of radion Nacional in the upcoming days, I have included the URL in the picture. This article is certainly despicable and indicates the type of fanaticism and disregard for others that is present within Chavismo and working for the Government. That it is allowed to continue is absolutely reprehensible. I have translated the first few paragraphs, so that those that don’t speak Spanish can get an idea of the type of hate and extremism that is present in this Government and tolerated (and paid!) by it:

The Enemy is Zionism by Adal Hernandez

Capriles Radonski, son of Henrique Capriles Garcia, a descendant of a family of Sephardic Jews of Curacao, and Cristina Monica Radonski Bochenek, a Russian-Polish Jewish woman. Both families are linked to the country’s business oligarchy, among which are counted from media such as Cadena Capriles, entertainment industries and corporations as Cinex, to services and real estate.

Capriles participated in several courses in Europe and, of course, in the imperialism of the US, more specifically at Columbia University in New York. He worked for some time in the private sector at the firms firms Nevett & Mezquita Abogados and Hoet, Pelaez Castillo & Duque. Both firms linked to the interests of the Zionist bourgeoisie.

He was part of the paramilitary and fascist sect called Tradition, Family and Property, where religious rites were practiced and perverse crimes were planned, selective of all that does not represent the Aryan race and the high national Venezuelan bourgeoisie. This organization was directed by Alejandro Pena Esclusa, a confessed CIA agent.

In 1998, he was elected deputy for COPEI, the Social Christian Party, the son of a religious fascist organization linked to the Spanish Phalanx called Opus Dei, which came to Venezuela to take root in the early 50s of the twentieth century.

Capriles actively participated in the bourgeois coup of 2002, against the Bolivarian revolution, where he and his Baruta police, punished the revolutionary people in a fascist onslaught, which was however short-lived, but that showed what  the bourgeoisie can do to defend their interests. On April 12, 2002, with a group of enraged thugs, he led the assault on the embassy of Cuba, violating all international norms and endangering the lives of people who were in Cuban sovereign airspace . In December 2006, the Zionist was acquitted by a court of appeals.

To understand the candidate who embodies the interests of the Venezuelan oligarchy and the transnational one, Capriles it is important to know what is Zionism, an Israeli ideology that he covertly represents .

Zionism is hiding behind a religious and nationalist discourse

There you have it, Chavismo is on the offensive and has taken its gloves off, while Chavez has yet to resurface after Sunday’s primary, perhaps to distance himself from this relentless attack. However, I suspect this whole thing will backfire, and will only convince those that will vote only for Chavez come October.

Opposition Primary Results Show Urban Voters And Expected Geographical Correlation

February 14, 2012

The above graph, sent to me by EC (thanks!) shows the percentage of voters in each state that participated in Sunday’s primaries. Except in Amazonas, which is a rural state, you can see that States on the right, with the highest levels of participation, are mostly populous, more urban states. These results are no mystery, simply put, the opposition has always been stronger in these states. In fact, as EC pointed out in his mail, the correlation coefficient is 0.95, with the opposition”population” of each state, as measured in the last election when the opposition obtained 5.7 million votes.

Thus, about one out of every two opposition voters went to vote on Sunday, clearly a highly motivated opposition force, with a rather unusual participation for a primary. In fact, in the two primaries that Chavismo has held, the internal ones in 2008 and the one for the National Assembly in 2010, participation was 520,000 and 1.2 million, respectively.

This could indicate a more disgruntled population, but it is hard to extrapolate much from the data to what would happen in the Presidential election in October.

Chavismo Is Very Concerned About Capriles’ MUDslide in Sunday’s Primaries

February 14, 2012

While I expected the surprise factor to play a role in how Chavismo reacted to Sunday’s results, I am a little surprised by the fraud slant taken by most Chavista leaders. I mean, you can expect craziness from Mario Silva, but when Diosdado Cabello and Jorge Rodriguez step in to suggest fraud, when the Government controlled Electoral Board ran the election, you know these guys are nervous.

I do not care much for Mario Silva’s rant on Sunday, he clearly went bezerk with the results. But when the man that is trying to succeed Chavez comes out, military fatigue on, saying “It has to be determined whether if those numbers truly exist”, you know something is up.

To say nothing of former CNE President and Mayor of the Libertador Municipality Jorge Rodriguez, who came up with this very unprofessional looking chart, claiming it suggests fraud:

This chart claims to show the number of votes per candidate as a function of time and somehow the non-uniform rates are supposed to be evidence of fraud. And then comes the electoral expert from Chavez’ PSUV party who says it would have been impossible to get 3 million votes in the three hours allocated. Maybe he was the one that told the Government how to limit the number of voting machines in order to limit the number of votes. He obviously failed…

The truth is Capriles’ MUDslide los tiene locos. The total number of votes was an incredible 3.04 million votes, with Capriles getting over the 1.9 million number. When someone told me at 5 PM on Sunday that we could get three million votes, I found the number so incredible, that I dismissed the same person’s number that Capriles had 62% (He got 64.2%)

Meanwhile, the big autocrat has yet to say anything, while I think the MUD has to emphasize that the CNE is controlled by Chavismo. BTW, shame on the CNE Board members, only one of them, the lone non-Chavista has defended their integrity. Lucena, the President of the CNE, was wishy-washy. She did say that the CNE controlled the process in all but 160,000 votes, but she did not want to say much on the controversy. She is probably waiting for instructions from above.

For now, this is fun. When Chavismo does not establish the agenda and reacts to the news, you know they will screw up. So, for now, get the popcorn out and enjoy!

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