Friday Evening Musings about Venezuela After a Long Day

April 20, 2012

1) News Item:  El Assiami  presents proof that there are links between Makled and Aponte^2:

The Devil presents proof that there is also a link between Adan Chavez and Aponte^2:

What’s stronger link, an envelope you write to someone or a book you dedicate to someone, or a ceremony you hold as Governor to honor a buddy.

You be the judge. (Pun intended)

2) El Assiami: DEA helped the escape of Aponte^2

The Devil: Aponte did not escape. Like so many other Chavistas, he was removed but not accused. It’s how they work, they get rid of them, but never accuse them of corruption, they just let them be. So many cases, Antonini, Illararamendi, Duran, Casas de Bolsa. Where are they now…

Except they went quietly, not like the dishonourable Judge.

3) Finally, the Devil would like to note: Today we had the best or second best daily rally in Venezuela and PDVSA bonds that the Devil has seen in his life. I find it hard to believe that this was coincidental. Within an hour, at around 10:30 AM,  PDVSA bonds went up 5-6% this morning, while Venezuela’s bonds went up like 2.5 to 3%. Since Chavistas are just as good as regular Venezuelans in using privileged information, I can’t help but wonder if something dramatic is afoot. I may be wrong, but if I am right, my prediction of the demise before my birthday, which is in nine days, is doable. We shall see…

75 Responses to “Friday Evening Musings about Venezuela After a Long Day”

  1. Johnny Walking Says:

    I don’t understand. What is the relationship between the increase in the price of bonds and cancer-ambulante kicking the bucket. Please, explain.

    • moctavio Says:

      People have been betting that if he leaves things would be run more rationally and the bonds would soar. Venezuela is a better risk than the Ukraine, except we have Chavez.

      • Alex Says:

        Ha! Great comparisson.

      • Johnny Walking Says:

        Well, even though I do not know much about financial markets, my first thought was that if he croaks, either before or after the elections, the ensuing uncertainty about the political landscape y probable short term chaos would keep investors away from anything that smells Venezuela. I wouldn’t invest a dime, for sure, but then again, I may be wrong in my appreciation.

        • Johnny Walking Says:

          Correction: … and probable short term chaos, would keep investors away from anything that smells Venezuelan.

        • syd Says:

          OT, JW: thank you for your acuity and wisdom on the junior league. I share the opinions and am, too, losing interest.

          • Johnny Walking Says:

            You know, Syd, when someone argues with you not using facts but ad hominem attacks, I am reminded of this: “Ladran Sancho, luego cabalgamos.” (although this is an incorrect quote) You were right about the bull: it needs urgent help.

          • syd Says:

            Very apt quote, however loosely applied. (Ya ni se oye el ladrido.) En cuanto al ganado … you can lead it to water, but you can’t make it drink. (Also loosely applied.)

    • julicarbonell Says:

      On general peñaloza´s musings on a dog´s day afternoon afternoon: they are non pareil and so very illustrating! A “must” read, and on the Devil´s ditto: amanecera y veremos. A very happy Bday in case I forget

    • Roberto N Says:

      The last two paragraphs of that article are real eye openers…..

  2. doris Says:

    Are pdvsa bonds traded in the north? I asked interactive brokers, and td ameritrade, but didn’t get anywhere. unless they are overthecounter…

    • syd Says:

      at one time this type of investment was considered a Brady bond (ie, junk), still is junk to many firms. Lehman used to carry them, but we all know what happened to Lehman (their LatAm desk now at Barclays). That’s all I know.

      • syd Says:

        P.S. availability of these USD-denominated bonds, outside Ven, is likely at the institutional market level, Miguel can confirm.


    • You’re right, Syd
      I have no access to them unless I go to a local bank, or maybe to Commerce Bank in Florida… Thanks

      • syd Says:

        not a regular bank, dch, but the capital markets division of a large international bank, if it even has any of these bonds, in inventory for their retail investment clients.

    • Alex Dalmady Says:

      PDVSA is not available in the US, since they are all REG S. You can get several Venezuelan Sovereign bonds (VENZ), at online brokers such as Interactive Brokers (underlying VENZ) and TD Ameritrade should have them also, since they are traded on the BondDesk platform. Rep Venezuela bonds trade tighter than the equivalent PDVSA bonds, so the Devil and others prefer the latter.


  3. I just want to wish you an early happy birthday. I hope you get everything we want!

  4. Jose Says:

    I’ll send you a birthday bond, if I can get hold of one. Sorry, I’m not chavista.

  5. island canuck Says:

    “I can’t help but wonder if something dramatic is afoot. I may be wrong, but if I am right, my prediction of the demise before my birthday, which is in nine days, is doable. We shall see…”

    Miguel I can’t help but wonder if all the rumours that were floating around early Friday morning might not have been the reason for the spike in the bond prices. Twitter & ND were alluding to a Friday morning without a president.

    According to the latest info he’s alive and will return to Venezuela on Monday or sooner.

    My fingers are crossed that you are right in your prediction.
    If not, it wouldn’t be much longer.

  6. Dr. Faustus Says:

    In late 1944 the Russian Army was hunkered down on the other side of the Oder River, just a short three hour drive from Berlin. In Berlin itself a pervasive gloom hung over the city. They knew what was coming and the violence it would bring. Just off the Wilhelmstrasse there existed a deep underground bunker filled with the top military generals and senior officials of the Red Shirt Party. Er, no,…wait,…they were Brown Shirts. Sorry. Yes, Brown Shirts. The senior military officials and party officials were all in a state of panic. A major change in their lives was coming, even though the first shell had yet to fall. No one knew what to do. The Fuehrer spent many hours alone in his bunker/room transfixed in a state of deep depression. While chaos spun around him, he gave few orders and refused to make any decisions. He knew his time had come. His fate was sealed. The Grim Reaper stood outside his door. Generals Zhukov and Koniev were soon coming and plotting the take over of the city. They were preparing to hurl their 3 million man army against the city gates.

    With few remaining musicians left in the city, the Berlin Philharmonic Orchestra pieced together a make-shift orchestra and decided to give a final concert. The piece selected was from Wagner, Hitler’s favorite composer. It was, of course, the Goetterdaemmerung, The Twilight of the Gods. It is the story of the worlds come crashing down on the Gods set to Wagner’s composition. Total, utter destruction. To Hitler it was appropriate. If ‘he’ was going to die for Germany, so should everyone else. “We will fight to the end, to the last man!” Hitler announced to his generals. Let every man, woman and child into the fight. “Give them all kalishnikovs!” he said.

    No, not really. But it could happen.

    The final hours seem to be approaching. What next? Who are the plotters in Cuba? What are they saying behind closed doors? What is the plan? Millions of people on the streets with guns? Dead bodies filling the streets for,….for,….the revolution? When politics becomes a religion as it did in Nazi Germany, evil things can happen. One only hopes that nothing similar will happen to the beloved Venezuelans……

  7. doris Says:

    Let’s be careful for what we wish for –
    the country is pawned to the hilt,
    anything profitable has long been nationalized and stripped,
    in short the productive apparatus has been destroyed.
    Is there any cash , or even bullion left? Future earnings are compromised.
    Bonds gyrate, but investors still remember Greece.
    “Après moi, le déluge” (“After me, the deluge”)
    is attributed to the King of France Louis XV (1710-1774) :-p

  8. island canuck Says:

    Another report (in Spanish) by Dr. Marquina.

    Chavez needs help to walk.

    The cancer cells are doubling every 17 days.

    With medicine & radiation he may be able to appear normal for a few days do that he can calm his followers (cult members?)

    http://www.reporteconfidencial.info/noticia/3169151/chavez-requiere-ayuda-para-caminar-marquina/#.T5LVUwkjxUA.twitter

  9. Manny Says:

    This is the most dangerous period relating to both leaders’ mental health and current events. There is no greater legacy than having their regimes outlive them. The opposition has been outsmarted, outmaneuvered and outmuscled again. Doubt a frail looking Chavez will be publicly seen

  10. Manny Says:

    The amercans had good access to Makled when he was detained in Colombia. Makled sang like a bird (a mistake for him in hindsight). The Americans well aware of Aponte

  11. Milton Says:

    What happened yesterday with the Venezuelan debt market is extremely weird. Someone knows something that the rest of us do not and is betting a lot of money on it quite too fast. It is not like positions are slowly being built…they must be expecting something to happen very soon…

    • moctavio Says:

      That is exactlybwhy I decided to write about it, it was a very sudden rally, someone has to know something

  12. megaescualidus Says:

    Miguel,

    You can’t imagine how much I’d love your prediction to turn out to be right. I don’t doubt now that HC is really sick, but I find it hard to believe his end is coming so soon. I’ll really believe it when the guy is 6ft under.

  13. island canuck Says:

    It just keeps getting better & better.

    The vice president of Venezuela, Elias Jaua, calls the opposition leader, Henrique Caprilles, a clown:

    http://www.noticierodigital.com/2012/04/jaua-capriles-radosnki-es-un-payaso/

    What great class this guy has. Has he looked at his leader??

  14. Kepler Says:

    Thanks, Miguel.
    What’s up with Acosta Carlez?

    http://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luis_Felipe_Acosta_Carlez

    Is he ‘just in aquaculture’ in his native Llanos?
    Wasn’t he one of Makled’s best friends?

  15. noel Says:

    While much about Venezuela today is depressing, not all is; watch the link below:

    http://liveweb.arte.tv/fr/video/Gustavo_Dudamel_Philharmonique_Radio_France_symphonies_2_4_Brahms_Pleyel/

  16. dorisclubhipico Says:

    off-topic,
    out of harina pan? buy it in vancouver.
    NYtimes mentioned scarce arepa meal in caracas, yet here in vancouver there’s plenty of both white and yellow.
    The other point I’d like to make, my email address been hijacked, so I have a new moniker.
    Good night

    • island canuck Says:

      Your Harina PAN. in Vancouver probably comes from Colombia not Venezuela.

    • dorisclubhipico Says:

      Good point Island Canuck. You’re right!
      Made by Alimentos Polar Colombia – no wonder it doesn’t taste right! :-)
      I want the one that they use at Misia Jacinta! Stamp my feet! Rant! Rant!

      Oh well, I won’t tell the kids that the empanadas are actually Colombian.

      • Alvaro Says:

        How long has you been out of the land of the possible? Colombian PAN tastes better and is softer. the quality of the one in venezuela has been affected by years of price and raw materials regulations…

  17. CharlesC Says:

    Aponte^2 -replied to the question “Why did you do
    xyz?” -by saying ” I believed in the revolutionary process” – What kind of
    bs is that. C’mon. man. You went to law school. I would like to ask Aponte^2 a follow-up-Do you believe taking drugs is good for your health? Or, letting someone get away with murder because they have important friends and ‘he’s really a nice guy”- yeah, that is revolutionary justice I believe in!!
    Later Aponte^2 said–I guess correcting himself-that “they would have
    fired me”- Again, dumb and dumber.”- (My words from previous post)
    After thinking about this- I realized Aponte^2 saying “I believe in the revolutionary process”- is very important.
    A. Aponte^2-is/was a goodchavista- however -isn’t he saying now that
    he no longer believes in chavismo? What better example for chavistas to
    ponder than that of an ex-Judge who realizes the destruction caused by
    CHavez- think about it. This may cause millions of Venezuelans to defect,
    give up their belief in “the revolution”.- Naturally, Madura et al – the parrots of Chavez come out and squack “Look, this is just a conspiracy against the
    revolution of Chavez”
    But, the evidence is there. The deaths, the expropriations, the destruction..
    This could/should be an avalanche against chavismo!
    I like the quote someone said “We knew it, but we did not REALIZE it”
    B.The leaders, the promoters of the “revolution” have blood on their hands
    lots of blood -blood from their own el pueblo this includes Chavez.
    Isn’t it time to realize REALIZE -it is not/was not worth it and the future
    is only worse(-more of the same is worse)-regardless of what Chavez
    sings about with the Chinese lending money and weapons from Russia
    and kisses from Raul and Fidel. Resign and apologize and get out
    if you have any honor, Hugo Chavez.

  18. moctavio Says:

    Each broker has differemt policies. Some dont deal with them at all, others only certain ones, it varies a lot. The big guys all do them.

  19. syd Says:

    Devil’s advocate, here. In the absence of dates for such proof, I would say:

    1 a. Just because there’s proof of an association between AA and Makled, doesn’t mean that AA knew of Makled’s dirty business. Besides, AA has admitted that he knew Makled, socially, and he hints that, among the many carnets he signed, he may have done so for Makled.

    1 b. Just because there’s proof of an association between AA and Adán Chávez, doesn’t mean that it’s shocking that there would be connection. After all, AA was the president of the Supreme Court. Under the circumstances, he had to have hobknobbed with the highest echelons of chavismo.

    2. Technically, AA did escape, for he knew full well what was in store for him, if he presented himself at the National Assembly, as he was summoned to do on April 3, 2012. The fact that the government considers him a fugitive adds to the speculation of the negative outcome for AA, had he respected the summons.

    3. Just a hunch, but in the absence of any critical news, other than the interview explosion, which continues to reverberate on the street, I wonder if the spike in Vz bond prices isn’t due to that continuing buzz, meaning, it isn’t going away that easily.

    • syd Says:

      to add to the weight of #3, here’s Teodoro, ningún santo de mi devoción, but still: http://www.dailymotion.com/video/xqapi4_teodoro-petkoff-caso-aponte-aponte-es-el-escandalo-de-la-decada_news .

      • CharlesC Says:

        Teodoro Petkoff- said es el escandalo de la decade- – y “podría tener consecuencias impredecibles y causar “la sacudida más fuerte que habría de experimentar la estructura de poder venezolano”.
        What Mr. Aponte^2 said- relates to the “whole ball of wax” -and I suppose
        this is what Mr Petkoff is referring to – not just the case of Mr. Aponte^2…
        Point is-I agree with the second part of Mr. Petkoff’s statement more than the first- I do believe this case will have consequences far beyond what some are saying now. Yes, this points to the faulty structure of the justice
        system and the wrong-headedness of chavismo.
        It is not a pretty picture.Fact is- the country is run by nothing more or less than a group of thugs who operate within “gang mentality” –that is all.
        This means = they are all criminals! Every stinking one of them!

    • Milton Says:

      You can argue that he did not know about Makled dirty business. However, he clearly stated that he at least once favoured, in a court procedure, someone involved in the drug business. Therefore, we know already what kind of ethical and moral standards he manages . Sorry, but the logical thing to infer here is that he would have had no problem helping other drug dealers. And what a coincidence!!!! it turns out that he had a close relationship with a huge capo in the business. Additionally, this was a guy that managed a lot of information, not only in his position as “Magistrado” but also when he acted as Military Prosecutor……

      • syd Says:

        yes, I agree that just because AA didn’t know of Makled’s dirty biz, doesn’t mean he didn’t know what was happening in the drug biz. After all, AA says that he knew that the drug was stashed in army warehouses, if I remember correctly.


  20. Hi Guys,
    I’m looking at grancolombia sa from next door, they declaring exdividend dates way ahead, and if polar, and p&g are already there, and with our economy in a tailspin, is CIB worth looking at? Thanks

  21. CharlesC Says:

    To put it nicely, this article leaves a lot to be desired. But, that’s OK
    after a string of incredibly well written ones..this one still passes for
    light reading with afternoon tea and crackers..
    Milton (one of my teachers was named “Milton”)-Aponte^2 -“helped”
    anyone drug-dealer, murder, whomever- he was instructed by his
    masters in chavismo-even Chavez himself told him to help..
    Maybe, Aponte^2 helped someone outside the circle or failed to
    follow orders- probably opened his mouth and said something
    he shouldn’t have said..
    Relationships- with inner circles -are probably very fragile and
    it seems these guys know they are playing with fire -playing with
    the life and death of people including themselves…


  22. […] Friday Evening Musings about Venezuela After a Long Day […]

  23. syd Says:

    Riveting reading at Caracas Gringo: http://caracasgringo.wordpress.com/. (Hat tip: Daniel at Vz News & Views)

  24. CharlesC Says:

    For what it is worth-my advice is stay with the Aponte^2 case.
    Today’s media rushes on to other news-infotainment, but, this
    case is just beginning.
    a.The military- what are the military going to do about these
    narco-generals?
    b. The Judiciary- the Press should be asking questions to some other
    judges and getting answers.
    c. Think about this- DEA-is not going to prosecute Aponte^2. DEA
    is receiving relevent information as to drug trafficking through Venezuela
    by? etc.
    I urge everyone -don’t be distracted.

  25. CharlesC Says:

    http://www.lapatilla.com/site/2012/04/23/la-foto-que-chavez-no-quiere-que-veas/

    Note the comment by Ms. Silva Valero:
    “Asi como Aponte Aponte, hay muchos más que tienen miedo de brincar la talanquera, lo harán cuando las situación se ponga color de hormiga, muerto el perro, fuera la rabia. Muchos los veremos pidiendo asilo, pidiendo perdón, clemencia …. lo malo es que ya nosotros estamos cansados de tanto teatro, cinismo y vagabunderias. Hemos tenido mucha paciencia. lo malo es cuando se agote”

  26. LD Says:

    He called VTV today, to show he is alive. He would return to Vzla. thursday 26.
    But he told that there will be more treatment sessions (something that was not supposed/told before, it should had been ended this week).
    El mandatario informó que regresará a la nación suramericana el próximo jueves, “yo debo estar en Caracas Dios mediante el 26 de abril”. Acotó que tendrá que regresar a Cuba para recibir más sesiones del tratamiento contra el cancer que le aqueja. http://www.telesurtv.net/articulos/2012/04/23/presidente-chavez-desmintio-rumores-sobre-su-salud

  27. Rojorojito Says:

    Chavez just spoke and said he is fine. You keep repeating your lie but we will trounce you on oct 7. Chavez has defeated cancer. No volveran!!!

    • CharlesC Says:

      Rojitico, you ARE scared aren’t you? Capriles is going to beat
      your rojo viejo like a rented mule!!

    • NET Says:

      “Trounce” is an interesting/unusual word for any Venezuelan/Spanish-speaking “Chavista” to use…..??!!!???

    • Kepler Says:

      Pendejo,
      Why do you say “no volverán”? The ones in power are the ones who have always been in power: the military caudillos and the thieves that have ruled Venezuela since history began…only that worse. Some of the military in power were shooting at civilians in 1989. Some of them were people like Freddy Bernal or Chacin or Roger Cordero, who all murdered people in the now so-called 4th Republic…and afterwards they had the chuzpah to talk about being different when they were actual representatives of the worst of that 4th Republic.
      So: what are you talking about? No volverán? The Boligarchs who flaunt their dollars like Hugo’s daughter does? The Chávez clan? The red-very-red military generals who, as they always did, use vast amounts of Venezuelan territory as hunting ground in the same way as feudal lords did that in Europe 1000 years ago?

      They have never departed…only that now they are in power with fury and on steroids destroying Venezuela’s infrastructure.

  28. moctavio Says:

    He did not sound like he is ready to trounce anyone, it’s the pancreas rojito, he will not ressurect for October.

  29. dorisclubhipico Says:

    Correcto! Hugo no volvera – 2013 sera su ano pavoso

  30. Kepler Says:

    Miguel,

    I read in the news how Hugo is saying the announcements about his death are exaggerated. Whether he goes to visit Onkel Marx next week or next year, I think the best for us would be to consider he is alive until we have solid proof he is completely dead.
    Following rumours takes us out of focus and the focus should be to show how much money is being wasted, how much infrastructure is destroyed, how much corruption is allowed, etc. in spite of the longest oil boom we have ever had.

  31. Ira Says:

    As Mark Twain said (and I’m paraphrasing):

    “I never wished for the death of anyone, but I have read many obituaries with great delight.”

  32. CharlesC Says:

    AN briefly mentioned an investigation into Aponte^2’s accusations. Whereas,
    it just another matter to be on the agenda the AN directors want everyone to believe -IT IS NOT. Wake up, you bunch of sick freaks- this is huge!!
    And, Chavez, in Cuba, insulting- saying “I wasn’t even there, I may have had lunch with Aponte^ 2 – just like I predicted- Chavez will deny knowing anything
    as will all other chavistas and try to blame everything on Aponte^2..
    I’ll spare you the music but- I have the feeling I get from
    watching and listening to-“For A Few Dollars More Theme- Ennio Morriconne”.


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