First Poll That Says Capriles Ahead By More Than Margin Of Error

September 26, 2012
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OK boys and girls, here is the FIRST poll by a trusted pollster that says that Capriles is ahead by more than the margin of error of the poll. This is very positive, particularly coming from this source. Enjoy!

58 Responses to “First Poll That Says Capriles Ahead By More Than Margin Of Error”


  1. YES!! THERE IS NOW REAL “HOPE””…!!

    • Ronaldo Says:

      Side Topic- Can the Chinese workers imported to build houses vote in the Oct 7th election?

      We know that all Cubans are allowed to vote although Chavez may not like how they vote.

      We also know that Venezuelan military personnel are not allowed to vote.

      This means that Cubans and Chinese workers may have more say in the Venezuelan government than the soldiers who are asked to die for their country.

      That has to change.

      • m_astera Says:

        Agreed about the Cubans and Chinese. I didn’t know until now that the Venezuelan military could not vote. I think that is a very good policy. One of my contentions is that no one taking a government paycheck or whose income depends on government contracts should be allowed to vote.

  2. geronl Says:

    I wonder how the Chavista’s will react when it becomes clear that Hugo is losing?

  3. Iván Says:

    I think that you really want that CIA be behind this polls because you can not accept the real thing, chavez is defeated and I wish DEAD soon.

    • Ronaldo Says:

      Now now now. Chavez will die when it’s his turn. The stress of losing combined with his cancer will certainly move him closer.

  4. Marilu Gruber Says:

    Great!!!Thanks a lot!

  5. megaescualidus Says:

    The only thing that’s [almost] sure is that: Faltan 11 dias

  6. moctavio Says:

    Note the date on the poll, up tp September 18th. with Capriles gaining groung, he has 17 mores days in which to gain.

    • colon Says:

      Thanks Miguel, great as usual.

      Being on the street, including INTT close to base of the barrios, a 50+ for Capriles sounds right. Some questions of interest (a poll on them will be great) are:
      -what are you going to do if both candidates say they won by 0.1%?
      -What if Capriles calls for a pacific take of the street or not going to work until a full recount is done? What if ‘el paciente’ calls for “gas del bueno con los majunches”. What will happen? Would you support the Ghandi/Mandela way or the Chavez way?

      Lopez Obrador may have something to say….biology is on our side for sure.

      The poor does not know much about a margin of error, and knows a lot about the “margin of horror” every day…

      I did the mock voting with the machines, and Capriles wins among the cne volunteers, huge margin of error…

      Cheers,


  7. YES VIRGINIA, there´s a Santa Claus

  8. syd Says:

    whoo-hooo! But we knew that all along. (Pa qué sirven estas encuestas?)

  9. VJ Says:

    The last slide (# 28) of the Consultores21 presentation is really interesting. It shows that 38% of the NsNc people when they vote in secret, they vote for Capriles.

  10. John Says:

    Best news I’ve heard in quite a while!!!

  11. Eric Says:

    The polls are all trending toward a larger than expected Capriles win, and it’s clear, to me at least, that we’re witnessing a very classic tipping point phenomenon in the making.

    In the past I’ve posted comments here and in other blogs about how to interpret poll results in Venezuela, and I’ve made the point that basically you can’t take any of them at face value, given the unique We’re Not In Kansas Anymore characteristics of the political environment.

    I posted an article this morning in a news/opinion portal I co-founded last year which sums up my argument that Capriles’ lead is actually much greater than the polls reflect. Your comments most welcome.

    http://porlaconciencia.com/?p=8329

    • VJ Says:

      I just read you interesting article and agree with your analysis. But your estimate of Capriles winning by more of 15%, I think is too high.
      It is estimated that for the 7-O elections 1% point equals 165,000 votes, so in my opinion Capriles wins with a margin of 3% equals to 500,000 votes.

    • PM Says:

      I’m really sorry for asking this. But, did Julio Borges send you an email saying Chavez would win?

      • Eric Says:

        No, he didn’t. The whole thing was a fabrication. I never received an email from him, and the one read by J-Rod was fabricated to make Borges look like a turncoat. I’ve never met Jorge, and have never written him. There’s no reason he would write me.

  12. Bruni Says:

    What is really remarkable is the campaign that Capriles has carried out. Chapeau to Capriles! I knew it, but this confirm my perception that he is an exceptional campaigner. When this started, more or less one year ago, nobody outside Miranda knew who Capriles was and now in one of the slides it shows that a very large number of people know that Capriles has visited their town/city of state.

    What I like about this poll is the fact that in secret people voted for Capriles. What I don’t like, is the fact that when asked about the improvement of their personal situation with respect to a year ago, most people felt there was an improvement.

    There is hope, but still too close for comfort….

    • Eric Says:

      In fact, their methodology is flawed, and it doesn’t prove what you say it proves. You can’t do an in-home poll, ask all the standard questions, including the who-will-you-vote-for question, and then at some point ask respondents to check a secret ballot and stuff it into a container, and assume that the respondent will trust the process. All this says to me is that Chavista voters are more circumspect and distrust the bait-and-switch completely, while Capriles voters have slightly more confidence in the process.

  13. Humberto Says:

    This poll makes a lot of sense. They actually have a strategy to measure the effect of government fear-mongering and it is to allow the polled individual to secretly select the candidate. What they found is that Chavez voters have no fear of expressing their opinion but Capriles voters clearly do. No surprise particularly given the government’s track record of discrimination against political opponents.

  14. CharlesC Says:

    Everyone knows Chavez is famous for supporting dictators around the world.
    Those who vote for Chavez should consider Chavez supporting Assad
    who has killed almost 30,000 of his own people(like his father)using weapons of
    war indiscriminately in his own cities in Syria.
    How can a Venezuelan vote for someone who supports this evil dictator?

  15. firepigette Says:

    I wonder what will happen if Capriles wins.

    What deals are they making with Cuba?

    How much of the army is pro Chavez?

    How will they govern if the governors, the army, the congress,and the generals are Chavista

    Sometimes I see so much optimism that I think deals have been struck, and that Chavismo wants Capriles to win.

    The militia could never confront the army.

    Is the army only partially pro Chavez?

    These kinds of questions go through my mind….I am sure Eric is correct about the proportion of pro Capriles voters vs Chavistas….but what could happen after elections?

    If Capriles wins, will he be able to do anything ?

    • Bruni Says:

      If Capriles wins, forget the army, the real problem is that he will have all the powers against him. They will make his life difficult and Chávez may try to come back by one of his usual methods (twist the law, use the Supreme Court, etc.).

      If Capriles does not win, but loses by a very small margin and ACK it, it all depends on the reaction of the opposition. If the opposition stays united and supports Capriles as a leader, then there is a strong chance of getting strongly into power later on.

      The worst scenario for us is Chavez winning for a large margin. There you will see things getting tougher.

      Capriles must win or lose by a small margin.

  16. Stef Says:

    Miguel, a good friend of mine, who happens to be a very good statistician, did some simple exercises with the last DATANALISIS poll. He took the percentage of ns/nc, which is surprisingly large in DATANALISIS poll, and applied linear regression, taking into account that “HCh is flat” and “HC is steadily upward” in the very same poll, and picking different values P for the ns/nc that will stay ns/nc. This very simple model (the simplest) gives different results depending on the value of P. The most reasonable values for P give Capriles ahead.

  17. VJ Says:

    I just found out that the last Datanalisis poll was taken between August 25th and September 5th, which is more than a month before the elections. So in my humble opinion, this poll is already outdated and worthless.

    http://www.noticias24.com/fotos/noticia/2159/en-fotos-una-mirada-detallada-de-la-ultima-encuesta-de-datanalisis-antes-de-las-elecciones-presidenciales/

    Also, today pollster analyst Christian Burgazzi posted an interesting article “El empate tecnico como trampolin”. Here is the link:

    http://www.lapatilla.com/site/2012/09/25/empate-tecnico-como-trampolin-por-cburgazzi/

    • Stef Says:

      VJ, Since CONSULTORES21 seems to be the only pollster that put Capriles ahead, what I wanted to highlight is that a simple analysis of other polls, even the one by DATANALISIS, gives results somehow similar to those in the model predicted by CONSULTORES21. The poll by DATANALISIS could be as updated and worthless as you like but it was released a few days ago. A serious analysis of the polls should include the models of the 5/6 pollsters that have been acting in the last 4/5 elections.

    • Stef Says:

      By the way, VJ, what Christian did is exactly what my friend did. I know Christian. He is doing a good job analyzing the polls. In less than an hour of routinary work my friend came to similar conclusions. Let’s hope they are right!

  18. Odette Says:

    After almost 2 years of sitting, reading, waiting, watching in silence… finally…There is something that moves me to post. The fact that 21 had the balls to release its Poll speaks volumes. Is it understated? .. yup, but I would have done the same. This is a bitter pill for Chavizmo. ( Best they Import some water so they can take it) I Started noticing the trend and the confidence in the change of Gov. with the value of the BF. The demand for US$ now is high.. and climbing. My interpretation There is going to be a party & much to celebrate. X-mass is coming and anyone with a little extra $ will be spending it on gifts. Not to mention the amounts needed for the Rats that are going to bail the ship to stuff into their respective maletas as they exit left. Personally, I will be spending X-mass there…and a few months more. I hope to have coffee with someone if they find themselves in Porlamar for something other than a wedding. As far as Govern-ability. Pres. Capriles, although it was swept aside by almost all except Diego Arria, will have to shut down the existing Parliament. Just as Chavez did. But thats a good thing. With the immunity removed the majority of them ( I am being kind now ) will be mounted on the bus and chauffeured to the Tribunal Supremo to face the varied legal charges. Will there be a witch hunt. NO. But there will be Justice. Finally. My My, so much to do in so little time.. 100 days. What I did not like by Capriles, but again I understand it, was his promise of the increase in salarios minimos and keeping them ahead of inflation. This is creating a guaranteed fuel for inflation. hmmmm Populist move… glad he beat Chavez to the punch on this one..heheheh. Got my Dom ready, the occasion merits nothing less.

    Anyone watch Globo tonight? they had a memb. of the Parlatino on. The Fat Cat was wearing his pretty red tie. In my mind I ” choked ” him after the 3rd sentence … Anyone read the Statements made today by the Ve embastard in Cuba (not a typo). Apparently, according to him, “a vote for Chavez is a vote for Fidel ” now I’m not sure…but..do you think he knows that he actually helped Capriles on that one? intresting…

  19. m_astera Says:

    People like to support a winner, and they like to say they picked the winner in advance. Chavez is doing nothing that looks like winning; Capriles is coming up fast. Those without any particular political conscience are going to be thinking about being able to say they voted for/supported the winner. This includes the press.

  20. Roy Says:

    Capriles WILL win. I don’t have any doubt at this point. But the question is, what happens after? In the next week and half, the momentum and expectations need to build even more. We need to create a true sense of inevitability about this win. The victory must be definitive, leaving no room for doubt in anyone’s mind. Any ambiguity about the outcome can lead to the open confict scenario that is always present in our thoughts about this election.

    As a manager and supervisor, I have sometimes made decisions and pronouncements about which I was not certain, yet my role required me to project certainty. It is the role of everyone involved in this project, to project absolute certainty and confidence to everyone they come into contact with. If you have doubts, keep them to yourselves, for now. I know this seems difficult. The Opposition has been disappointed too many times. We don’t want our hearts broken, yet again. Our defense is cynicism and pessimism.

    But, this time, it is real. We have a real candidate, and a truly unified opposition that is well organised and well led. We KNOW that we ARE the majority of the population. We are NOT just some whiny minority, and we ARE going to WIN and WIN BIG.

    • syd Says:

      Roy, I’ve been thinking the same thing about Capriles. He has certainly been drinking the confidence juice. And that can’t be too easy, especially at the start of his campaign. I suspect that Aveledo et al have been a great help in moving Capriles to a statesmanlike position from what earlier came across as a junior politician. It’s been an impressive evolution to see Capriles, cutting through over a decade of so much fear and victimhood with almost no mistakes and with his sincerity intact.

  21. island canuck Says:

    Geroni said:
    “I wonder how the Chavista’s will react when it becomes clear that Hugo is losing?”

    Last night Chavez said:
    “No tengo oposición en Venezuela. Yo la quisiera pero no hay nadie que me pueda dar la pelea”. “Estoy seguro que si me ganan, cosa que dudo mucho pues las encuestas que tengo me dan la razón, y en el supuesto negado que llegara a entregar el poder estoy seguro que antes de seis meses, o mas allá máximo un año, regresaría triunfal y en hombros, pues el despelote, la ingobernabilidad que se desataría y la falta de apoyo militar al elegido convertirían el país en un caos”.

    Here’s a translation (don’t blame me if there are errors)
    “I have no opposition in Venezuela. I wanted one but there is no one that can give me a fight. I’m sure that I’ll win, something that many doubt but the polls I have assure me of this, and in the event that I have to turn over power I’m sure that before 6 months or at least one year I’ll have a triumphant return on shoulders when the collapse starts, the inability to govern that will come & the lack of approval by the military for the elected one will convert the country into chaos.”

    The delusions of Chavez are epic but I assume this information is for the faithful. What worries me is the continuing insults & threats of chaos.

    • Bruni Says:

      Island, that is an old quote. La Patilla (the link you gave below) just pastes in tis main page the flashiest sayings of Chavez written by Bocaranda and even though it is said that the complete runrunes are elsewhere, most people read quickly and do not go “elsewhere” . As a result, since you read the date of today, you assume that the quote is recent.

      Well, it is not.

      The quote is a 2011, as Nelson Bocaranda himself writes in today’s Runrunes in El Universal.

      http://www.eluniversal.com/opinion/120927/runrunes

      The moral is, be ALWAYS extremely cautious of what you read in Venezuela’s media, in particular portals that copy information from other sources. They often present the information in a manipulated way, misquote or just quote out of context and out of time.

    • island canuck Says:

      Thanks Bruni for pointing that out.

      It still remains a scary statement or a great illustration of his delusions.

      • Bruni Says:

        It is not that scary because it is expected. It is exactly within Chávez logic and what I have been saying all along when people tell me that Chávez will not surrender power if he loses the elections..I tell them they are wrong: he WILL surrender power, but he will do something to get back, that’s for sure.

        He did that in 1992 and in 2007. In 1992 he was coupster, never forget that and then , when he saw he had lost, he found a way out ruminating (with the help of some “brilliant” people) how to get to power through elections. In 2007, he lost the reforma, grudgingly accepted the results (remember “la victoria de m..”?) and then found a way to come back next year with the enmienda, which, BTW was lost the first months, but right after Xmas, Chávez added the indefinite goverment for everybody, and governors, even from the opposition, started thinking it wasn’t after all such a bad idea…

        So this is Chávez way of behaving he knows when he is defeated but he has a purpose and that is to stay in power forever. If Capriles wins, he will do anything he can to get back ASAP and he will have an easy ride because all the powers are chavistas, which has not happened ever before. I don’t think in a traditional coup d’état, Chávez wants to die making believe he was a democrat, I am thinking something like what they did to CAP.

        Capriles is smart, so I guess he must have thought about it. If Capriles loses, then we need to support him in bloc to get a chance in the assembly elections, that are the REALLY important ones.

  22. TV Says:

    My greatest concern is that the election authority will simply claim Chavez won on bogus numbers and claim opposition protests are a way to “destabilize” Venezuela. Is there anything that could stop them from doing that?

    • island canuck Says:

      The physical printouts of the voting machines & the recount of 54% of the mesas should prevent that. The numbers won’t lie no matter what they try & do. The important thing is to guard these numbers the day of the election.

      If they try anything else then it will be a coup, nothing less, which I don’t put past him although, the coward that he is, he may fear the wrath of a very emotional pueblo.

      • TV Says:

        Yes, this is exactly what worries me – a coup by faking election results.
        Want to physically recount them? The court denies you that.

        Easy enough to do, and enforce it with the military and militias.

        I do hope I’m just being pessimistic!

    • Hay un camino? Says:

      All political parties witnesses and all CNE authorities (including Vicente Diaz, the oppo one) are required in the totalization room to be able to see the transmission results (they are encripted and a password from Diaz is required) so everyone will see the actual results at the same time. That and having the actas makes a bogus announcement impossible

      • TV Says:

        It’s impossible to transmit wrong results without opposition knowing. It’s quite possible to do it regardless. That’s what I fear. Without credible external control, the Chavistas could try that. I hope I’m wrong, obviously.


  23. Capriles will win this election, any doubt about it.

  24. Dr. Faustus Says:

    That poll will scare the you-know-what out of each and every Chavista. It was a pleasant surprise with my morning cup of coffee.

    Now the only thing to worry about is Hugo Chavez thundering ‘earthquake’ into a microphone, and then cancelling the elections.

  25. firepigette Says:

    Will votes flow through the underwater umbilical cord that exists between Cuba and Venezuela?

  26. jau Says:

    Today was a truly impressive day. We had real money demand in excess of $100mm. The bulk of the demand was for sovereign paper. PDVSA kept up as well particularly 17n and 22s. PDVSA 22s tend to be a good barometer for local market sentiment. Locals dont differentiate much between PDVSA and the sovereign. SO when they come in to buy, they tend to buy the highest yielding bond out there which is PDVSA 22s. While we did not see big PDVSA demand it seems like locals were in buying given how well that specific issue performed. Away from VEnezuela we are finally seeing some weakness in the low beta long duration names. While those credits like Mex Brazil Panama etc have performed wonderfully this year, future returns are going to be hard to come by given QE, Fed comments of extended accomodation and future inflation expectations. So we should begin to see some rotation out of these low beta names into Venezuela as well. Particularly given many clients remain underweight Venz it will be interesting to see what happens if this rally continues and low beta names continue to show signs of exhaustion.

    Hay un camino and people are betting on it!

    • NicaCat56 Says:

      I do love Jaime Bayly! Thanks, syd.

      • syd Says:

        I don’t. But he does manage to make journalism mildly entertaining, though I wondered how much he was getting from Cisneros for dropping his name and that of Venevisión. Bayly must have repeated these names a good 1/2 dozen times.

  27. m_astera Says:

    Chavez is gravely ill and is not going to have a miraculous recovery; he has likely already tapped into all of those he is going to get. He’s a goner, folks.

    Due to his own narcissism, paranoia, and need to be the belle of the ball, he has surrounded himself with sycophants and incompetents for the simple reason that they pose no threat to him. He has no credible successors in his own coterie. Never mind what they might wish they could do, not a one of them has the charisma or intelligence to take over once the figurehead is gone. More likely they will, if they can, join the new winners.

  28. Kepler Says:

    I agree with Bruni.

    The examples she gave are good enough. If you want more confirmation, you can read a book or two about the evolution of left extremist movements in history. Or just look at Nicaragua.

    But there are methods to neutralise them as soon as possible, kosher, Catholic, good methods.


  29. And many of us that were once walking under the stench of
    a generational curse had to go through much consecration just to
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    The game revolves in fantasy medieval time where the strong enslaves the weak, and in
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