Archive for October 8th, 2012

Looking At The Numbers From Yesterday’s Presidential Election

October 8, 2012

People are throwing all sorts of tables suggesting the numbers say fraud. The main problem is that they fail to include the percentage of votes counted or the null votes or whatever. Above is my take on this (Thanks TD!), using the numbers from the CNE. There are minor inconsistencies, but that is about it.

The story of the day was not the abstention, it was the turnout, never seen before in Venezuela’s elections. Capriles won the cities, but the rural areas were a blow out in Chávez favor. In a previous post, I showed how we would have lost the vote in the Parliamentary elections in 2010 if abstention had been 4% less. Well, abstention was over 10% lower, big impact. Have not really looked at numbers, but I am told, for example, that Chacao was the municipality with the highest abstention rate in Miranda State, which we lost. So, they turned the tables around, their abstention was lower than ours, or at least comparable.

Anyway, post in the comments any interesting, weird or funny things you find in the data. I don’t think I have the will or the energy. Just a couple of numbers:

Chávez got 8.2% more votes (absolute) than in 2006

The opposition got 33.2% more votes than Rosales got in 2006

The absolute number of people that did not vote in 2006 was 3.994.380, this number decreased by 653.981 votes as of the last bulletin, despite the fact that the electoral registry has grown so much.

In my opinion, all pollsters did bad. Datanalisis may have gotten the difference right, but they still had 15.5% undecided. these people were found  yesterday, based on the turnout. In fact, all pollsters were saying abstention would be higher than 25%.

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