Uncertainty Prevails In Venezuela, Days Before Inauguration Is To Take Place

January 2, 2013

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Happy New Year to all! The last day of 2012 was so full of rumors, that I did not dare make a post about the New Year too early and then the partying took over. I still do not quite understand why the New Years Eve parties in Caracas were cancelled, given last night’s interview with Maduro, in which nothing new was said about Chavez’ health.

And speaking of that interview, I think they should avoid them in the future. If the objective was to promote Maduro as the future leader of Venezuela, he did not do very well. He was dry, boring at times and at a time when rumors abound, he barely mentioned Chavez’ condition. I still wonder what giving all the historical dates were all about. Was he trying to imitate Hugo? If so, he failed miserably.

What is true is that we still don’ know what ails Chavez and days before he is supposed to take over, we really don’t know much about his current condition beyond “delicate” and his son in laws’ statement that he was “stable” the next day. I wonder if we will ever see a medical doctor explain anything before Jan. 10th., as it should be if there is any attempt at bypassing the Constitution on Jan. 10th. Because in a country full of conflicts of interest, we now get Maduro’s own wife giving opinions about the formalism of Chavez having to be sworn in on Jan. 10th. What’s next, a Maduro/Maria Gabriela ticket?

Logic says that Chavismo should rush an election and after seeing Maduro yesterday in the interview, this opinion is only reinforced. You don’t want him to go around campaigning or talking too much, he may have the backing of PSUV, but people may fall sleep listening to him. Thus, if logic follows, Chavismo should change course in the next couple of days and begin talking about a transition on Jan. 10th. If they don’t do that, they are simply fools. Remember, Maduro has never run for office and simpatico or charismatic, he ain’t.

Meanwhile, it still seems bizarre to have had this broadcast from Cuba, led by a Cuban reporter and in which Maduro devoted the first few minutes to praising the Cuban revolution and its achievements (??). Given that Cuba is likely the most divisive issue within Chavismo, it was not precisely the best signal to send to his PSUV mates. It made Maduro look like he follows Cubans orders, while his lack of charisma and even the absence of any information on Chavez reduced the impact of the event.

And the Jan. 5th watch continues at this time. Will Diosdado be replaced? If so, who will replace him? Will he be kept in the interest of unity? Do they trust him enough to ratify him as President of the National Assembly? The best thing for Chavismo unity is to keep him in place. But for that, they have to trust he will follow the playbook if he has to be sworn in on Jan,. 10th.

I still believe that Chavismo will stay close to what the Constitutional order demands. It aligns too well with their best interests to call for quick elections and preserves the image that the law has been respected. But in the end, it will be what Chavez decides to do, if he is capable of deciding. If not, the instructions are likely to come from the Cuban strategists, proving once again how low Venezuela’s sovereignty has fallen under the revolution.

To delay Chavez’ swearing in without any formal proof that he can recover or even that he is conscious, would be a travesty and it will certainly create uncertainty and introduce new tensions within Chavismo. I still think logic should prevail and the Constitutional order will be followed, but neither has been a strength of Chavismo. But to attempt to break the order in Chavez’ absence, may be too risky a strategy for those jockeying for power in Venezuela.

41 Responses to “Uncertainty Prevails In Venezuela, Days Before Inauguration Is To Take Place”

  1. Ronaldo Says:

    The Cuban influence over Venezuela is simply shocking. Castro is hand picking the next leader of Venezuela and the PSUV and Chavistas are going along like livestock to the slaughter house.

    Venezuela should just surrender to Cuba and get it over with.

  2. Kepler Says:

    What is so surprising if Cilia is giving her opinion? If Chavismo were to rule for two centuries you will see more inbreeding than within the Tutankhamun family.
    What I am not sure about is the day when Chavistas really need to call for the elections. I mean: you somehow tend to think they will be forced to take drastic economic measures in the middle or short term…but that is only if they were not crazy and so power-horny. They’d rather sell now oil contracts for a century duration in order to get enough Haiers and US rice and Nicaraguan coffee for the coming 3 years.

  3. moctavio Says:

    With Chavez out, selling the oil will become an iffier proposition.

  4. Dr. Faustus Says:

    I still maintain that Adan Chavez is the guy to watch. He will surely play a big part in what is about to happen. He’s been hiding off stage for now, but that may be about to change. Adan Chavez is the kingmaker here.

  5. Kepler Says:

    About the travesty: Venezuela’s democracy has long passed being a travesty…it is long beyond the “travesti” point…it’s a complete drag queen.

    You think thus Chavismo will then be close to 10.1 to declare new game. Why do you think they haven’t given up on the charade so far? Just disarray? Feelings?

  6. Noel Says:

    I would have thought that the perceived loss of sovereignty would have been a powerful lever for those who wanted to defeat Chavez and Chavismo. The army faction is reported to be anti-Cuba, which would be natural as the armed forces must protect sovereignty, but so far it hasn’t done much.

    I did not follow Capriles’ presidential campaign, but I have the impression that this issue of loss of sovereignty did not figure prominently in his message. That is very strange.

  7. Boquiabierto Says:

    Diario Abc de Madrid

    Hugo Chávez, en coma inducido

    Fuentes consultadas por ABC aseguraron el lunes que se había programado una próxima desconexión.Hugo Chávez ha entrado en los últimos días en un coma inducido, con las constantes vitales muy debilitadas, mantenidas gracias a laasistencia artificial procurada el hospital de La Habana en el que fue internado.

    Fuentes consultadas por ABC aseguraron el lunes que se había programado una próxima desconexión de la asistencia artificial que prorroga la vida del presidente venezolano. Esa desconexión, con resultado previsible de fallecimiento, podía producirse en cualquier momento.

  8. James Says:

    According to this reputable newspaper article: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2255939/Hugo-Chavez-kept-alive-life-support-cancer-surgery.html?ito=feeds-newsxml

    Chavez is probably already dead or will not recover. All bets are off about Jan. 5 or 10.


  9. [...] The only thing we know for sure is that Uncertainty Prevails In Venezuela, Days Before Inauguration Is To Take Place [...]


  10. [...] The only thing we know for sure is that Uncertainty Prevails In Venezuela, Days Before Inauguration Is To Take Place [...]

  11. Ken Says:

    Es una cosa terrible para una persona estar acostado en una cama de enfermo, para ser entregado por los médicos, para tener amigos que están llorando alrededor de la cama, con expectativa a despedirse de él, y en circunstancias como esas, no tener esperanza, no tener un interés en Cristo y tener la culpa de sus pecados que yacen en su alma, que se va fuera del mundo sin que su paz se hace con Dios, para presentarse ante su santo tribunal en todos sus pecados sin nada para abogar o contestar, y para ver la única oportunidad de prepararse para la eternidad que viene inmediatamente a su fin, después de lo cual ya no habrá más tiempo de libertad condicional. Jonathan Edwards

  12. Ken Says:

    So the soul of a wicked man, at its departure from the body, will be made immediately sensible that it is before an infinitely holy and dreadful God and his own final Judge. And will then see how terrible a God he is, he will see how holy a God he is, how infinitely he hates sin. He will be sensible of the greatness of God’s anger against sin, and how dreadful is his displeasure. Then will he be sensible of the dreadful majesty and power of God, and how fearful a thing it is to fall into his hands. Then the soul shall come naked with all its guilt, and in all its filthiness, a vile, loathsome, abominable creature, an enemy to God, a rebel against him, with the guilt of all its rebellion and disregard of God’s commands, and contempt of his authority, and slight of the glorious gospel, before God as its Judge. This will fill the soul with horror and amazement. Jonathan Edwards

  13. Morpheous Says:

    I’m afraid we never are gonna know the truth about the exact date of Chavez death but who cares?. What would be really indignant is that the Cubans could manage to keep control of Venezuela destiny thanks to the traitors that we all know. Not only Chavez has cancer but also the whole Venezuela. Chavez’s has it terminal; I hope Venezuela’s cancer is still curable.

  14. Bill S. Says:

    Don’t be shocked if they fly the appropriate (?) Venezuelan officials over to Cuba and swear him in over there. His followers will be quite satisfied with that. As long as the freebies keep coming, they are happy. Get ready to hear the announcement right after it is over.

  15. Bill S. Says:

    The Tehran Times has an article on their website entitled, ‘Venezuela After Chavez’. Their Internet connection is too slow for me to access it, but I doubt they would publish such an article if they thought he would recover.

  16. Kepler Says:

    Para citar a Cortázar: no se baja vivo de una cruz.

    I believe the Chavez government can postpone lots of decisions for months. A new Maduro government could postpone taking the urgent measures it needs to take provided the Chinese gives them a few billions here and there. What if they do another no-apertura apertura of Cerro Negro (aka Carabobo)?

  17. Roy Says:

    As soon as the death of Chavez is announced, Chavismo will be over. Even the followers of Chavez don’t like or trust any of his lieutenants. With the death of Chavez, the magical spell cast over half the population will be broken. There are none of the Chavistas in the government who are capable of governing Venezuela.

    Open infighting within Chavismo will erupt within a mere couple of days. I just can’t see them working and playing well together without Chavez to settle disputes.

    • firepigette Says:

      ROY, i think you are forgetting the real reason people are ” Chavistas” which is money.As long as people have found an ideological way to steal money they will keep “idolizing” the representative of the false Revolution in my opinion.

  18. A. Shaw Says:

    “The instructions are likely to come from the Cuban strategists, proving once again how low Venezuela’s sovereignty has fallen under the revolution,” Octavio says sanctimoniously.

    oooo

    Golinger found US government documents through US Freedom of Information that show US imperialists spent $20 million in 2012 on Venezuelan elections — Feb. 12, Oct. 7, and Dec. 16. This spending was illegal under Venezuelan law and would have been illegal under US law if a foreign principal “gave anything of value” to a US citizen or resident “in connection with” an US election.

    The US imperialists will tell Venezuelan Oppos — whom imperialists corrupt — what to do and what to say and when to say it about Jan.10.

    Most Oppos want nothing but a cash handout from US imperialists, usually about $400 per month, if that much.

    Almost all of Venezuela’s quislings in at least the middle layer of the Oppo carry debit cards in which accounts US imperialists punctually deposit about $400 every month.

    Of course, the big wheels of the Oppo get a lot more than $400. This is an early expression of corrupt debit card democracy that the bourgeois-led Oppo wants to restore.

    • moctavio Says:

      True parody of a PSF

    • Ronaldo Says:

      A. Shaw,
      Dang. Next thing the oppos will want is a free washing machine, a free refrigerator, free housing, and free gasoline. That is totally despicable way to influence an election.

      • Glenn Says:

        No you missed something. The oppos will be buying appliances for the chavista voters! Simply the cost of the vote…….

    • Glenn Says:

      Everyone knows you can’t use a US debit card in Venezuela. They get cloned every time you get them out of your wallet. I speak from experience.`

      • A. Shaw Says:

        Yeah, everyone knows that USAID, NED, and State can’t deposit $400 electronically in your debit account in or out of Venezuela. It’s too complex for US imperialists.

        Duh!

        • Mr. Imperialist Says:

          Chavista baiting is such good sport…though, I wonder how the geniuses will handle the news that Habana will soon be the capital city of Venezuela? That really says a lot about your blind faith in personality cults & Monarchies masquerading as “democracies,” hombre.
          Maybe Maduro can stay a few months in Cuba and get a few “free” check-ups before returning to Dysfunctionalzuela? Only costs you 100k barrels per day….

          • loroferoz Says:

            There’s the possibility of Maduro and Cabello being slightly ill, and of their using Cuban healthcare for secrecy’s sake…

            • Mr. Imperialist Says:

              Yes, let’s hope their mental health experts are slightly better than their oncologists…and why couldn’t Mr Bolivar Hero use Venezuelan doctors, at a facility in his own country? Why no transparency at all for the entire lie-filled affair? Sorry, I keep thinking Venezuela is a democracy….

    • The Cat Says:

      Ooooohhhh!! A. Shaw, you really think that “quoting” the Golingerbicha makes you credible? Really? You really have no fucking clue, do you? SHOW the documents; no, really. SHOW the documents that the US “imperialists spent $20 million in 2012 on Venezuelan elections – Feb. 12, Oct. 7, and Dec. 16″. Moron. You can’t.

      • Roy Says:

        Cat,

        The U.S. funds several NGOs that do things such as promoting democracy and human rights. I would guess that whatever “proof” Golinger found was merely the expenditures of those NGOs in Venezuela. These funds do not get spent on partisan issues and they go out of their way to avoid being seen as partisan. However, the U.S. has an interest in seeing the rest of the world become more democratic and less authoritarian, and they do spend money where they think that they can successfully promote it.

        Of course, Mr. A. Shaw probably has never seen these documents himself. He is just quoting Golinger. She does have the documents, but only to maintain some figleaf for her claims.

  19. loroferoz Says:

    Uncertainty? Of course, chavismo acts as a combination troll-bully. They keep the truth to themselves, when asked say that “they” know what to do, but never tell what it is, never discuss a thing with anyone from outside their sect, and insult and threaten anyone not following their telenovela with tears in the eyes.

    The only thing left to do, is to talk and act as if it had already happened. As if Hugo Chavez were dead and buried (which he will be anyhow). Respectfully, tactfully, though, we should troll the trolls.

    How and when shall the Presidente Encargado Maduro (they got angry over this!) to pass the investiture to Diosdado Cabello, Presidente de la AN? What about the coming elections? Economic measures? The show must go on!

  20. Bill Seidel Says:

    Shit, the 20 million at least flow the other way, Fidel is a failed chulo with a 54 year old failed regime, despite the Soviets and Chavez feeding him, but this jerk thinks Fidel is great.

    Zero brains!!!!

  21. Trader Says:

    90 days renewable for 90 days more. Supreme Court

  22. m_astera Says:

    Eva Golinger found Imperialist documents proving that the Evil Empire is/has been paying the mid-level opposition (whoever that is) $400 per month by depositing it in their bank accounts? Is that right? So that would be why they don’t support Chavez, this payola?

    Cool story, bro. :-)

    • Rolando Says:

      Actually, it was not Eva. It was the Cubans using their old Sandalista contact Jeremy Bigwood. Eva had been recently recruited by the Cubans through Andres Izarra. The Cubans will sacrifice their own when facing US Narcotics indictments…has happened before. Not sure about this Maduro-Diosdado thing but Maduro has kept his name clean on drugs while Diosdado has been involved for a while. The US does not want to prosecute Venezuelan generals and government officials. The US would rather cut a deal that lets these guys off the hook in return for something and that’s where the problem lies.

    • m_astera Says:

      If I were a FARC leader I would be getting pretty nervous about now. Nothing the DEA would like better than taking them down.

      • Roy Says:

        I wouldn’t count on the DEA, but the Colombian Army pretty much has them on the run. The only place they still survive is where they have a friendly border to duck accross when it gets to dicey for them.

      • m_astera Says:

        My point was that some of the robolucion leaders know a whole lot about the FARC and could trade that info for immunity from prosecution.

  23. Kepler Says:

    I checked my account and I haven’t got any money coming from the USA. Please, dear gringos, what’s going on?

  24. Roy Says:

    I wonder if, in the end, it isn’t better for the Opposition to let this just play out and not try to force elections. Let Maduro or Cabello, or whoever be the one to devalue the Bolivar. Let the public see Chavismo in action without Chavez.

    In about three months, people are going to have gotten used to life without Chavez, and they are going to start to see how useless the minions of Chavez really are. Then let’s have the election, after people get tired of all the uncertainty.


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