Maduro Blinks, Recount Will Take Place

April 19, 2013

Madurosilla

Despite all the bravado, all the refusal to recount and even Luisa Estela’s opinion, the CNE spent a full nine hours yesterday discussing the possible recount and magically. an hour before UNASUR was to recognize Maduro but strongly request a recount, the CNE announced that the 46% of ballot boxes would be audited.

You have to realize that the other 54% was not 100% audited and that an audit is truly a recount, as votes, machines and voting notebooks have to match in detail.

So, what happened? Simply, Maduro was forced to blink. It was not only UNASUR, but also the Venezuelan military that exerted its pressure and force the acceptance of the recount that Maduro had backtracked on. And opposition radicals can claim what they want, but 46% is statistically VERY significant. Any discrepancy, any irregularity, any inconsistency will certainly come out in this audit.

Maduro may look really bad after this recount…

What Maduro and his cronies did not realize is how sensible a recount sounds no matter how partisan you may be. Thus, internationally, Maduro accepting the recount only to “recular” (go back) the next day, looked certainly suspicious to say the least.

For Capriles, this is a win-win situation. He knows the hundreds of irregularities in the voting and his team will focus on it. Any ballot box not present, any inconsistency and those votes will be subtracted from Maduro’s lead. Add Capriles 57,000 international votes and Maduro’s lead of 270,000 could easily melt into the 100,000 lead.

And make him look even weaker.

And what do you say at that point? If all irregularities add up to something significant, the road ahead could be quite difficult.What happens if Maduro’s lead is reduced to 100 thousand or even less? Do they audit the remainder votes?

Nobody knows…

But it could get tricky as soon as next week, when the audit begins and Capriles’ team asks for international observers and the CNE refuses them. Or Tibisay says in this audit no actual ballots will be counted. The road will not be easy or simple.

But I am told the military knows what happened in detail on April 14th.Thus, Maduro blinked, but not only because of UNASUR, but because the military knew what was happening on Sunday. The Government claimed all afternoon that Maduro was ahead by as much as 10%, only to announce a small (<2%) victory at the last minute and rushing the proclamation of Maduro, and event that has always taken two or three days to take place.

And the military is divided. Yes, they have opinions, but leadership, true leadership, is nowhere to be seen on either of the two sides. Or maybe they are afraid to show their true colors.

But in the meantime, Maduro blinks and backtracks, Tibisay goes back on her words and Luisa Estela is made to look like the obeying fool everyone knows she is.

The whole thing is more volatile than most people imagine. Maduro was weak, even if he won. But his performance since has weakened him even further, while many of his comrades wonder why Hugo picked Nicolas, if they are so much better than him.

Things could change so fast, that I can’t predict a month, let alone a year. And as I had suggested before the election, politics is a new game in Venezuela. Chavez dominated politics and the agenda for fourteen years, but Capriles has lead the first political fight of the post-Chavez ear and he seems to have won resoundly.

In fact, Maduro may want to sound tough, but in reality nobody fears him, after all, Capriles and others already made him blink…

104 Responses to “Maduro Blinks, Recount Will Take Place”


  1. Are you saying that UNASUR put pressure on behalf of the Venezuelan people? I’m asking because I fear that UNASUR is playing to Humala(and his Nadine) and Cristina, as they plan to rule forever too.

    • cotatuu Says:

      UNASUR preaches and pontificates “consensus” as “IDon’tKnowWhat” method to express decisions, a takeover from communist “United Front” bull. That means 100% agreement to EVERYTHING, that is unworkable on the long term. Supposedly that is the way of acting in unison “against the empire” and Brazil’s method of bullying everybody into acquiescence once Chavez shut up. But now it works both ways, with the loudmouth dead, “consensus” to enthrone Maduro would not be reached unless… there be a recount or compromise on a recount. Probably Piñera, silently supported by Santos, was the only adamantly opposed to Maduro’s sanctification. Perú was wishywashy, Paraguay absent and the rest pro, but Maduro is a cuba man not a Brazil hand so Brazil let the ball drop to reach “consensus”.

  2. m_astera Says:

    This would be the reason for Capriles not to publish the actas the MUD has. Because if CNE publishes actas that do not match the ones MUd has from election day, that is a serious discrepancy. Not publishing the actas forces CNE to either publish real ones or take a big chance.

    It’s a poker game, and the dealer has to show his cards first.

  3. moctavio Says:

    Yes, Unasur was going to ask for a full recount, thus the rush to accept the 46% recount which Capiles’ team said they would accept.

    • donacobius Says:

      However, if you read Unasur’s communique, they welcome the ‘decision to audit all the mesas’ (En tal sentido, toma nota positiva de la decisión del CNE de implementar una metodología que permita la auditoría total de las mesas electorales.) The actual offer makes them look foolish. They were bamboozled.

  4. donacobius Says:

    Bear in mind it’s not 46% of the boxes that will be opened but around30% (12,000). Still statistically very significant of course IF it’s a random sample.
    Comes down to the MUD’s ability to set terms. How the boxes are picked, in particular. And it’s not 54% but under 53% that was supposed to have been audited, but we have no idea what percentage really was. And in that segment of the votes, which is off-limits this time round, are all the one-mesa voting centers. I foresee some very tough bargaining, which of course will make the CNE look worse (why all the foot-dragging?)

  5. kernel_panic Says:

    This is an interesting article (in spanish) about the nature of the audits

    http://www.lapatilla.com/site/2013/04/19/las-12-mil-cajas-de-tiby/

  6. Rjd Says:

    I still can’t understand why there was an inauguration today. You don’t inaugurate if you don’t know who won the election. The terms of the audit are unclear and perhaps Capriles should have called that out.

    Unasur is lame. They called for an investigation of the deaths on the 15th. No investigation into all the other injustices that have transpired.

  7. megaescualidus Says:

    Miguel,

    I understand your point. I still think the Government wouldn’t go this route if they wouldn’t think they’d come on top.

  8. Kepler Says:

    Miguel,

    Lucena has already said very clearly they won’t count the actual papers. She said it several times and Capriles is not reminding people clearly enough that we do expect ballot papers to be examined.

    • moctavio Says:

      There will be many fights ahead, Lucena can say that, but to “audit the 46% that was not audited” means to do the same procedure that was done to the others and that included counting.

  9. Roy Says:

    Once the Opposition has established a venue with reliable third-party observers, many things can happen. You only have to pull on one string to unravel the sweater.

  10. Cas Says:

    Sorry Miguel this is our typical conspiracy theory speaking. 270k is not a tie, we are not losing by 1.5mill but we lost. Didn’t we randomly audit 54% of the cajas on Sunday?. Abuses of power yes, threats sure, persecution indeed. But those boxes will be clean. Release the scientist in you and leave your heart of it. For once I would like quants to be in charge of these matters rather than stupid poticians. And I would glad to be proven wrong on this one.

    • moctavio Says:

      No, 54% were not audited and in many places there were no oppo witnesses in the audits. Capriles tally is different.

      • Kepler Says:

        Miguel, I know but Lucena will lie and lie and lie.

        The thing is we MUST tell the outside world she is now saying something that is a lie. It is about the outside world (and to a lesser extent the population, but there we have actually two trenches)

      • Cas Says:

        Sorry Miguel. I really don’t understand your argument. Mesa by Mesa actas are in the CNE website. Capriles has as many as he could get his hands on. He can simply check for incosistencies and I haven’t seen evidence for that so far. What is the tally that doesn’t fit?. “Anomalies” imply suspicion but no causality.

        • moctavio Says:

          Many anomalies are reported, Capriles does not have all actas and theoppo had no witnesses in centers having 2 milllion votes. There are 1,000 mesas whereMaduro gets more votes than Chavez including 500% increases.I a told in one state Capriles gets that he won, CNE says Maduro won. With votes abroad Capriles is down by 215,000 if you can compare the boxes and actas in those 12,000 mesas and the advantage went down, what then? What Capriles did is use as input the actas and its distribtion, as actas come in you project a result, that projection gave less than 10,000-20,000 vote difference from the time 10% of actaswere in until 85% werein and then they report a 270,000 difference. Veri inconsistent.

          • moctavio Says:

            And in the end, why do they keep refusing to count the votes?

            • Cas Says:

              I see your point but I think Maduro & Co. are simply idiots. They should have supported the audit from the beginning. The fumbled it and now people will think that they also fixed the boxes late at night. In terms of interpretation I disagree, the missing audits are probably from Chavista hardcore centers and those will trend to Maduro. So he could have picked up 300k there easy. It’s like Maduro arguing that Chacao would go for him. But I am not sure how the forecast is done inside the oppo camp. Again, I hope Capriles proves me wrong.

  11. Iguana_Master_7000 Says:

    Vice President Jorge Arreaza shut down the Internet to all of Venezuela on Sunday. Why?

    There are at least 12 high grade military officers in custody and no reason given. Why?

    Defense Minister Molero was in a meeting on Sunday that included a couple High Ranking Cuban military. What was the purpose of the meeting?

    The answers to those questions will go far in illuminating what took place in the lead change on Sunday afternoon.

  12. bobthebuilder Says:

    Good analysis. Maduro has been on the back foot since day 1. Even more so now. I wonder whether Cabello putting his arms around the inauguration interrupter to protect Maduro is a metaphor for the future though…

  13. Dr. Faustus Says:

    I think that the most important point in the upcoming recount is the participation of ‘international observers.’ They must be there is sufficient numbers to attract the attention of the world press on the methods used by the PSUV to manipulate voting data. Once the real numbers are verified, whatever they may be, a further discussion can then be had on the massive use of state resources to overwhelm any political opposition at the ballot box. Which law gives PDVSA the right to use their huge oil revenues to support the political party currently in power? With a clear 50% of the population opposing the party in power, shouldn’t that be illegal? The same with the state media. A true democracy demands a voice for all political persuasions, not just those who’ve already achieved political power. All of this will open a pandora’s box for the Chavistas. This could be the start of something big.

  14. el burrito Says:

    The only thing I know is that Chavismo had the worst candidate for president that they could choose. I know that it was selected because he is the yes man of Cuba, but could they choose a little better yes man?. Probably, but now is too late. Day by day they are loosing more and more followers everytime this guy opens his mouth.
    30 days looks like an eternity for this guy. If I were the Capriles, I would take 3 or four months to cout. By then, the chavista will be praying for ” fresh lie” to loose by 3 million votes to get rid of him.
    In the mean time, if I were capriles, I will keep pointing at how bad he is and how much worst is the economic situation as the days pass. Also, I would strongly defend all the people that are been fired at public offices. He could include the high crime rate too.


  15. Vean aquí como un individuo se lanza sobre maduro y le quita el microfono durante su acto de coronación http://bit.ly/XWuJQG

  16. Mick Says:

    Caprilles cannot say a single bad thing about St Hugo. So, the next best strategy is to show everyone that HE chose loyalty to HIM over capability. I think not showing more cards than he had to was Caprilles best strategy because the political momentum is moving in his direction. The economy, crime, housing, food, everything the government is trying to control will only get worse under the current regime. The poor have always felt lied to, so they didn’t really care as long as the handouts kept coming. Now that the government is really feeling the economic pinch, the people will lose faith.

  17. island canuck Says:

    Something for Saturday morning:

  18. concerned Says:

    “when the audit begins and Capriles’ team asks for international observers and the CNE refuses them. Or Tibisay says in this audit no actual ballots will be counted.”

    They will not allow international observers, and they will not audit the actual ballots in the boxes. Only the electronic machines, just as the original “random ?” 54% that were checked in a few hours on sunday. That is all that was agreed to, and they would not have agreed to that if they thought that they could not control the outcome, just like with the first 54%. This was only to pacify the opposition and unasur, and to allow the coronation to proceed without protest. Why they say it will take 30 days to audit the electronic machines is just to buy time to in some way break down the opposition to minimize the threat once they anounce again the bogus results. Kind of like keeping chavez alive through lies for another three months until they were in position for the election.

    As for the coronation, a more vulgar display could not be possible with the complete who’s who list of corupt criminals and any anti U.S. thugs that would accept a free trip to Caracas. With full military parade just to make sure everyone will think the military fully supports him. Disappointed that Santos went, but at least he showed up late and left early. What was the price tag for that charade, or for the fireworks that have been going off all week nationwide (the big ones are about $100 each)? Many millions but just pennies on the dollar for what they have spent throughout the campaign using government funds and resources.

    And speaking of thugs, Arminajerk is not even back on Iran soil and they anounce plans to sell crude to north korea. That should ruffle a few feathers.

    They keep pushing the 8 deaths as a result of opposition protests. Those have already been discredited after investigated and proven false. No mention from the government of the hundreds of opposition who have been tear gassed, shot with plastic bullets, or detained and beaten until they declared loyalty to maduro. After seeing the photo of the boy who was shot at close range with the plastic bullets (Gustovo Coronel’s blog), you would like to line up the national guard involved and shoot them repeatedly, educating them on the effects of plastic shotshells. And any day that there were only 8 deaths in caracas alone would be a good day, and yet the government all of a sudden acts like it cares about this particular 8 fatalities that they fabricated?

    Now, I have worked up a good mad and I haven’t even had my first cup of coffee. By the way, it looks like they are intermittantly blocking your website.

    • TV Says:

      Good point about the deaths, actually. On an average day, Caracas sees some two dozen dead the government clearly doesn’t care about.

  19. island canuck Says:

    Here is a list of all the actas from Sumate.
    Not sure if this is 100%.

    http://actas2013.pals.com.ve/

    I checked some 15 mesas here in Margarita, Maricaibo & PLC & Capriles won handily in every one. In the past Chavistas won most of these mesas.

    You can search by your CI or by the exact mesa.
    If you checked by CI & then want to search by mesa be sure the CI space is cleared or it will default to that.

    It will be interesting to see if the totals reached by the addition of all these actas is the same number that the CNE published.

  20. Alejandro Says:

    Is there any possibility that the fibre optic cable between Cuba and Venezuela could be used for anything within the voting system seeing it was an electronic one?

    • island canuck Says:

      There has been a huge disbelief in the reson given as to why the CANTV ABA internet was disrupted at 6 PM on the 14th for 10 minutes.

      They said it was to prevent hacking but I really don’t believe that.
      I’m not enough of an expert to comment on what really happened but it sure was strange.

      • moctavio Says:

        Internet was indeed shut down via Cantv, since then it is impossible to acesss CNE from outside the country. I understand there was haching of the CNE servers on Sunday.

      • Iguana_Master_7000 Says:

        There is more than meets the eye on that shut down.

        If the real reason ever comes out Chavismo will be forever dead

        • The Cat Says:

          What do you know? Do share with the rest of us, as inquiring minds want to know!

        • Iguana_Master_7000 Says:

          I wish I could say that I have absolute proof, but I don’t. So what follows is at best speculation until proven otherwise.

          What I have heard, I heard from someone that does not play the “rumour to look connected game” and whose opinions I have seen time and again to be sensible and true. And while Miguel fits the bill on all of the above, it certainly is not him, so don’t go pestering him.

          1. The “most excellent voting system in the world” transmits voting in real time, not at the end of the day.

          2. All day long Capriles was up by as much as 2% pretty much the whole time.

          3. The voting is monitored in real time, and around 6 pm the government tries to inject votes into the system to beat Capriles, but is blocked (unspecified how) and fearing discovery shuts down the whole Internet into and out of Venezuela. What is implied is that whatever manipulation happens via the Internet and that someone was blocking and interfering with it, hence the shutdown.

          4. At that time, voting centers that were closed are re-opened and the votes pour in but only enough to give Maduro a razor thin margin.

          Certain members of the armed forces are meeting with Defense Minister Molero and a Cuban, observing the vote in real time and complain about the irregularities. These people are put under arrest by the DIM and to my knowledge still are.

          Nevertheless, pressure is put on the Maduro camp to recognize defeat but they stick it out and eke out the small margin, but are scared about being caught and hence the speed with which he wants to be proclaimed and the fascist attitude.

          Now many of you are going to claim that this sounds like another GWEH type ploy, and I truly wish I could point to the proof and call a black donkey black because I have the hairs in my hands, but all I have is the word of a serious person whom I have known not to engage in BS. and who knows quite a bit about what goes down (which sounds like GWEH, but really I do wish I had more, sorry)

          It is obvious that the Capriles camp had some idea of what was happening but no real knowledge until just before Tibisay comes out with the first bulletin, but they did know something wasn’t right and have stuck to their guns hoping that someone cracks.

          Capriles can only hope now that in any recount, audit or other examination that enough comes out to nullify the votes in as many voting centers as can be in order to close the gap and revert it.

          I believe they do know where the problems are, and how to get them to light. What we may never see is how vulnerable the whole system is.

          I suspect the reason that the CNE servers cannot be accessed from outside Venz. has something to do with this scenario as well.

          Maduro & Co. are scared, and showing it. Capriles needs to keep doing what he’s doing and pressure them relentlessly as someone will break and the whole thing will crash.

          That’s what I heard, and I think most of it is true.

          • Tomate Says:

            Wow! The story certainly orders all the random pieces of information that at least I couldn’t put together… Generals in jail, internet outage, electoral fraud, rush to proclaim maduro president, etc

        • syd Says:

          Interesting, Iggy! What’s best is that you explain well, calmly, and without any look-at-me-and-I’ll-tell-you-plenty-of-conspiracy-theories-with-sorry-no-proof.

          Thank you.

          It sounds plausible. And I’m with you on Capriles’s strategy to keep applying the pressure, within the rule of law, until there’s a break. Frankly, I think he’s performing masterfully. It’s impressive.

    • HalfEmpty Says:

      I suspect it more likely that the cable is used for secure communication and strategic cameras. Voting disruption doesn’t require anything like that much bandwidth.

  21. Carenne Ludeña Says:

    Me encantó Miguel! Muy buen análisis. Nosotros en Asamblea de Educación nos estamos proponiendo también como observadores nacionales (has visto nuestros reportes?). Estamos a la espera de una respuesta.

  22. Alirio Escalona Says:

    Just curious. Is obedient fool your rendition of tonto útil? Mine is useless fool

  23. apartensevacas Says:

    The audit will only check the votes. No cuadernos or capta huellas will bw checked. Also less than 46% chexk this out http://www.ultimasnoticias.com.ve/Noticias/TuVoto/NoticiasElectorales/Se-revisaran-12-mil-mesas-y-no-el-46-.aspx

  24. xp Says:

    useful puppet
    Tonto útil es una expresión política generada en los escritos de Carlos Marx y describen a personas que al luchar por un ideal pueden transformarse en instrumentos de otros grupos políticos. Se refieren a personas que colaboran involuntariamente con los intereses creados de terceros.

  25. Quest311 Says:

    So, apparently, Unasur election observers witnessed a complete failure of the fingerprint machines during the elections. They observed that people were able to activate the voting machines with their fingerprint, despite presenting the cedula of another person. In other words, you could present any cedula you want, and your fingerprint would activate the voting machine every time. This was observed by Unasur election observers in Santa Rosa de Lima. They began checking all the mesas to see if the problem was isolated to one mesa or if it was happening at all of them. Apparently, all of the mesas were affected by the “glitch”.

    http://www.notizulia.net/politica/67-politica/56487-unasur-presencio-irregularidades-con-uso-de-maquinas-captahuellas.html

  26. concerned Says:

    There were videos of the same person voting repeatedly using their their same fingerprint to activate during the Oct. 7 vote, but they were discounted as isolated and a nonfactor in the vote count. The important thing then was not the number, but that this most perfect voting mechanism in the world can be manipulated. It should be no surprise now.

  27. Kepler Says:

    Miguel,
    I hate to say “te lo dije”, but I am afraid I have to: the CNE registries are still far from clean. They won’t be clean as long as we haven’t actually carried out a statistically meaningful physical verification of people with their finger prints and all. No phone, no address by remote verification.
    This would be a gargantuant task but it is needed.

    When we discovered the 60000 Doppelgänger, people with the same full name (for Spanish name something extremely unlikely) AND the same birth date we simply discovered there had been a massive cheating.
    60000 (late reduced to 40000 and later to less, even though we don’t know how the unlinked IDs suddenly have old people who were not there before)
    is about 0.33% of all votes but that is only what we discovered for SURE to be cheating. That doesn’t mean there aren’t many more.
    “Yeah, but you don’t have proof”. Well: in any country, the discovery of thousands of fake IDs would be enough to carry a thorough investigation.

    We were permissive with this as we were with so many other things.

    Specially our forces still have to improve in finding ways to document cheating outside Miranda.

    I know some people who were witnesses in very tough areas of Carabobo. I consider them the real heroes. I think the same goes for those witnesses we have in Calabozo, in Tocuyo, in Punto Fijo.

    They need much more support from us expats, from the people in the three main urban centres.

  28. Javier Says:

    Verificación is not Inpugnación I understand that to invalidate a result and have a significat number of mesas do a revote has to be done within 20 days after the election took place; it”s a legal proceeding and I undestand it has not been done yet.

    The verification is to extend the audit of the mesas of last Sunday but this process is going to last longer and end after the 20 day window

    So this means something we don”t know is going to happen while the verification process is going on. Any guesses ?


  29. Thanks, Miguel. Good analysis.
    I suspect many more obstacles will be thrown in by the government. What will happen?

  30. LuisF Says:

    What will happen you ask! the mounting pressure will bring the regime to try desperate measures.

    There is an assemblyman missing since Tuesday I understand (Azuaje), some key people will be dissapear-ed, many more will be injured in street oppression,…,

    if we play the cards right, the military will eventually openly split, and a civil war will continue. If we are decided and united (as much as it can be under the current circumstance), the cuban invasion will again be defeated.

    Hopefully we will learn a lesson

  31. el_inmigrante Says:

    I want to believe you but do you have any evidence that the military did actually force the government to backtrack its position? Or are you guessing (as everybody else) that that is what happened? I hope it’s true.

  32. Morpheous Says:

    I wish I was wrong but I don’t see the CNE ever recognizing that Capriles won. They will do anything to keep the fraud hidden. It is really heart braking see Venezuela in darkness. Now the country is in need of not leaders but heroes.

  33. 1979 Boat People Says:

    From Los Angeles Times:

    ” Winners and losers in Venezuela’s presidential election ”

    http://articles.latimes.com/2013/apr/19/opinion/la-oe-shapiro-venezuela-maduro-protests-20130419

  34. Bill S. Says:

    If I were Capriles I would remind the voters that the price of oil quadrupled in recent years. Then simply ask where all that money went. Does everyone live in a mansion? Does everyone drive a Rolls Royce? Are the roads all pothole free? Is the electricity always on? Can you travel everywhere on free public transit?
    I would carry around two jars of coins, with the coins inside representing the price of oil in 2000, and today. Calculate how many stadiums full of coins Venezuela received for all the oil it sold, then ask, “Where did all that money go? My friends didn’t get it. Did yours? Did Cuba get it? China? Yankee banks? Where did it go? It didn’t stay in Venezuela. Why was that?”

    • syd Says:

      I like your analogy and simple presentation. With few words and a tangible presentation, there would be no argument from even blinded chavistas and trolling PSFs.

  35. island canuck Says:

    For anyone who reads Spanish here is a complete explanation of the electronic fraud that occurred on 14A.

    http://towelto.wordpress.com/2013/04/20/gral-carlos-julio-penaloza-cronica-de-un-fraude-anunciado/

    This was written by Gral. Carlos Julio Peñaloza. If true I hope that Capriles has this information & can prove it.

    • Roger Says:

      Great link thanks. He mentions VPN’s but its more private than that. Many of the voting station are on a government owned satellite network and then there is the submarine cable to Cuba that is also government controlled. This means few people can monitor or trap the traffic. Programs like WireShark do this. Even TCPView show all network connections on a computer and a great freeware to check for cookies and such.
      The problem is that we don’t know how this voting system operates and what safeguards are in place. The only thing we know is that they have been cheating with it since RR in 2004!


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