The Details Of Sunday’s Venezuelan Municipal Election Results Are Ugly For The Opposition

December 12, 2013

totals

While people are still trying to show that the municipal elections were somehow a victory for the opposition, the more the results are analyzed, the worse it actually looks for the opposition. I had tried to analyze the results of the election to look at local parties which ran independent candidates and separate the votes according to the leanings of those parties. But since the CNE  site is blocked outside Venezuela, it is very difficult to do. Someone was helping me locally, but then today Eugenio Martinez did an even better (more precise) job in El Universal, as he even had two additional categories, candidates supported by both sides (bizarro country) and really independent candidates with no ties to either side.

The results are shown in the table above. The first two lines are the Lucena-style results, in which you only take into account the votes for PSUV and the votes for the MUD, which makes it look like PSUV got 54.4% of the vote and the MUD 45.6%. (Both in red).

The opposition had a different interpretation, which was to add ALL votes not for the MUD or PSUV to the opposition, which made it look fairly close, with a slight advantage to the opposition.

But the reality is that, as Martinez shows, of those additional votes, about 533,000 correspond to candidates who are part of Polo Patriotico, but were in municipalities where the votes were divided. Similarly, about 270,000 were for parties which are part of the opposition, but ran separate candidates from the MUD. Finally, about 300,000 votes can not be accredited to anyone, because the candidates were either supported by both sides or neither.

What the totals say is that the results up to yesterday, are quite close to the Lucena-style results with PSUV and its allies obtaining 53.7% of the total vote and the MUD and its allies 43.4% for a total difference of 1.1 million votes between the two sides.

This means that the results are even worse that they looked initially, as the opposition lost by about 8% of the vote, compared to the minimal difference (if any) of the April Presidential election. Thus, about the only positive thing you can say is that the opposition managed to win the more “emblematic” races, including most large cities, but losing Maracay, Distrito Libertador and Sotillo (Puerto la Cruz), as well as the “in your face” opposition victory in Barinas.

Chavismo on the other hand won the popular vote handily, won nineteen of twenty three states and only lost 26 cities when compared to the 2008 election. Maduro can also say that he is now more legitimate than he ever was and Capriles lost the plebiscite.

By now, even one Mayor elected within the MUD has already switched sides in Aragua, while the opposition lost one Deputy in the National Assembly because both the principal and his alternate were elected as Mayors in Zulia State.

Meanwhile, both sides are claiming victory with Maduro even saying his candidate won in Lagunillas (??). But what is true is that the Daka offensive, the so called “Cadakazo” worked, it changed public opinion overnight. And the opposition had no time or did not have time to react. Thus the loss. And it is a big loss.

And in the best Chavista (and Venezuelan!) fashion, to celebrate his victory, Maduro decides to give Venezuelan a “gift” by cancelling school all of next week with return to classes on Jan. 6th. Makes sense, the last thing Chavismo needs is an educated voter. Maybe they would start to understand what the populist game is all about.

Three I “forgots”: 1) I think we may have a referendum on the gasoline price increase, that would really divide the opposition, Capriles already came out against it.  2) Government discovers 40% of companies given CADIVI are fake, but it is someone else’s fault. 3) Apparently inflation in Novemeber was imaginary= i, because the number is already three days late.

31 Responses to “The Details Of Sunday’s Venezuelan Municipal Election Results Are Ugly For The Opposition”


  1. You mean Eugenio Martínez, not Ernesto…
    (yer volunteer proof-reader – Quico)


  2. There’s one aspect of this story I really feel shouldn’t be overlooked: for all we complain about the red Media Hegemony, it’s UNCONSCIONABLE that El Universal stuck this particular bit of data away in the NINETEENTH PARAGRAPH of Eugenio Martínez’s story.

    Martínez – props to him – had a big story, a big of analysis that he specializes in that nobody else had done and that he got to first. By any reasonable estimation, it’s big news…and yet it gets buried way, way down in a story incongruously headlined “Oposición ganó votación en 4 estados”.

    Are you friggin’ kidding me?! THAT’s the headline?!

  3. Bruni Says:

    I had the same perception Miguel, but the “feeling” on twitter and facebook was that we won…I thought I was missing something.

  4. Morpheous Says:

    “the last thing Chavismo needs is an educated voter. Maybe they would start to understand what the populist game is all about.” …

    So, do the opposition need to be more populist than Maduro? … I think that had not worked either? … Remember the “mi negra” card by Rosales? … Or do you suggest the opposition offer a “mi negra” card but in dollars? … In the end, nothing seems to work for the opposition… BTW, this time the CNE also won because it seems as few people are concerned about fraud … What’s the winning strategy for the opposition?

  5. LuisF Says:

    Why is everyone avoids seeing the elephant in the room?

    Electoral results in Venezuela are flawed.The system (and I am not referring to IT) is broken down.

    From financing, to advertising/ propaganda, to voter franchise, to the national Identification system, to the actual machines and automatic tallying, to the leaders and experts of the CNE, to the non confrontational opposition……

    trying to outsmart the next analyst and to explain the arcaic detail dsitract us in a never ending cycle.

    Why no one trusts the results? what are the cubans doing everywhere, who runs the country? who benefits from the systematic destruction of private enterprise and the social networks. Who benefits fro hyperinflation and emigration/brain drain?

    Think.

  6. TV Says:

    Hm, did Caprilles come against the gas price increase?
    “USD 7 billion of our oil; now, after the election, they (authorities) want to raise gas prices. No adjustments. Stop giving things away!”

    This could easily be understood as a slightly more complex way of saying “about ******* time”. Dunno. Gas prices increase was why Chavez rose to national prominence in the first place.

    • Glenn Says:

      You know I read those headlines the same way – that Capriles would give away petrol too. Don’t know whether to attribute this to the author or
      Capriles. Gas prices must go up and the currency devalued – regardless of the election.

  7. Alex Dalmady Says:

    Capriles needs to learn when to shut up.

    • Bob Says:

      Capriles, Machado, Lopez and co. should pack their bags and leave. Their continued presence, or representation of the democratic alternative, will only act as a target for not only chavistas but sooner or later all Venezuelans.
      Their supporters have yet to accept that this is not about a perfect world but only about Cuba’s version of communism entrenching itself in Venezuela. So best to get out now as thousands have already done and leave the possibility of democracy as just that, a possibility. If they stay they will only succeed in providing a target for all, one which no one is willing to defend.
      And it would appear the further you are from Caracas the greater the potential and desire (strangely) to bring down Capriles and co. And that’s just another Venezuelan idiosyncrasy.
      Maybe the barrio is closer to many than they are willing to accept.

  8. captainccs Says:

    What the Sunday 8 mandate says is that we are sick and tired of políticos, chavistas, oppo, and every other stripe. They are all leeches and thieves. If we could just export the políticos instead of the oil the county would have a change to heal.

    The mandate is NO MORE POLITICOS!

  9. J. Navarro Says:

    Apparently, at least one of the two mayors who supposedly switched sides came out and denied it.

    http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/elecciones-2013/131213/alcalde-carlos-miranda-descarta-cambio-de-bando-politico

  10. shrillary clinton Says:

    Looks like that stationery satellite over Venz must have its Stupid Ray stuck on a High setting……

    by the way, whatever happened to the Venz Space Program?

  11. Andres F Says:

    When you say “the last thing Chavismo needs is an educated voter”. I don’t think Chavismo analyzes things that much. The beauty for them, is that most of their actions unknowingly end up helping their cause. It is easier to destroy than to build.

  12. syd Says:

    Miguel, congratulations. Very nice recap. But I disagree on one aspect: I’m not so sure that the Cadakazo was the principal agent that contributed to the abstention (which was king of the day), particularly among oppos. As I understand it, municipal voting day has had a long tradition of being heavy on abstention. What I do believe is that the MUD / Aveledo and “first-tier products” are not lions that roar. And personally I think a lion is necessary, if only one.

    Finally, if I may point out, your link to the Cadakazo is in error.

  13. CARLOS Says:

    The PSUV and pals will be ousted via elections only the day a new lion like CAP (or a new CHAVEZ ) will arise… That day no CNE, no Cubans, no nothing will break the change (like in 1998 when AD/COPEI/etc made everything to stop Chavez but they could not.

  14. concerned Says:

    Knowing the track record of cne, and the almost magical 54% that chavismo has garnered over the years, is it too farfetched to question the results in the key areas? We keep assuming that results are not tampered with, and beating ourselves up as if we could have or should have done something more.

    I don’t think that the opposition will ever improve their position at the ballot box under this cne / Cuban controlled system.

  15. moctavio Says:

    You can be sure the error is not one million votes.

  16. gabo Says:

    Forget elections and analysis, not when everything is so blatantly stacked up against the opposition (and yes, I agree with “concerned”, the votes are probably tampered with).

    Only when there’s a real systemic crisis that can’t be spun and blood runs on the street will anything change.

  17. moctavio Says:

    Keep counting on that, think Cuba for 50 years or Mugabe who had 1,000,000% inflation and is still there.

  18. jak Says:

    To be blunt what more do you expect from retards?
    The plebs will take whatever free stuff is offered today because they know the battle is against other idiots.

  19. Island Canuck Says:

    Talking about inflation still no number for November.

    Must be a doozy. If it was good they would have announced it sooner.
    Whatever they announce now it will be a lie.

  20. Alex Says:

    Numbers-wise the opposition had its ass kicked. To all those thinking The CaDakaso had nothing to do with it, well you should listen to Mr Saade of Datos. He was in a conference here in Miami couple days ago and what his polls measured before and after Daka clearly showed that the order-to-loot had a HUGE impact over people’s preferences on candidates. Hey, turns out the plebiscite was in favor of Maduro.

    In the eyes of an unscrupulous politician, Daka was a genious, sucessful move. It would be fair to say that having redistributed and ransacked all of the state’s wealth, the government is clearly at the stage of redesitributing private wealth. And this will maintain the government’s high popularity.

  21. Mick Says:

    That is what Hitler did with the Jews. He paid for his war by declaring a portion of his countrymen as “enemies” and justly redistributing their wealth among his new loyal favorites.

    History has many examples of how amazingly far some will go to cling to power.


  22. […] The Details Of Sunday’s Venezuelan Municipal Election Results Are Ugly For The Opposition […]


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