My friends keep giving me Hell for not being more optimistic, some even send me tweets that are meant to say I have no clue what I am talking about. However, in the absence of any new information, I think it is a still a close race and Capriles has the momentum. I just need more one data point to make my prediction and I should get that in the next two days. Yes, I am going to say Capriles will win, that seems to be the likely result. But I am not in the camp of a 10% victory by Capriles or even a 5% victory, I think it will be smaller even if I have lots of respect for Daniel’s data, which he just published.
There are many reasons to get excited, Capriles has the momentum, the rallies are huge, the response to Capriles is extraordinary and Chavistas should really not be as motivated as the opposition. But…
-The numbers are not overwhelming in Capriles’ favor in reputable polls.
-The Government is pulling all of the stops.
-Abstention continues to be key on Sunday.
And when I say the numbers are not overwhelming, there are three pollsters that have been fairly accurate in the past. One says Capriles is barely ahead, one says Capriles is 2% behind and the third one says Capriles is 10% behind with 10% undecided.
I can not dismiss that.
But I always go back to abstention. Even if polls are right (Or wrong!) abstention has always been the hardest number to predict in Venezuela’s election. Most of the time, Venezuelans say they will vote and later they don’t.
Currently, most polls are saying that abstention will be around 27-28%. In 2006, a Presidential race, abstention was only 25%. In the Assembly elections in 2010, abstention was 32,5%. And that my friends makes a big difference. Never mind that Chavismo won by 26%-plus in 2006 and lost by 4% in 2010 in terms of the total number of votes.
Thus, last night, I made a little model, using rough numbers from the 2010 election and asked: How many more Chavistas going to vote in 2010 would it have required in 2010 for the number of votes to be the same between the opposition and Chavismo. The answer is, slightly more than 4%:
and to me that is too close for comfort. Because on Sunday, Chavismo has a lot to lose and they will try their darndest to get out the vote. Thus, I can not say whether abstention will be 25% or 32% and it will make a HUGE difference.
In conclusion, it does seem that Capriles has the momentum, it does seem that he may be ahead. But, but…In the next two days I will get the last data point that will allow me to make an educated prediction within the scope of my knowledge. For now, Capriles ahead, but it is very close.
Cheer up!
The Devil's Excrement 
February 12, 2014 at 12:05 am
Great blog here! Also your site loads up very fast! What web host are you using?
Can I get your affiliate link to your host? I wish my web site loaded up as fast as yours lol
July 28, 2013 at 7:11 am
Serve warm with a slice of piecrust over top of the fruit.
Then you can dip them into liquid batter and fry them. The final
decision to use a roasting method to cook the chicken is
a good one because this type of cooking will allow us to compose the item in one large
single batch and place them on sheet pans for the oven.
July 27, 2013 at 8:32 pm
You could certainly see your skills within the article you write.
The arena hopes for even more passionate writers like you who are not afraid to mention how they believe.
All the time go after your heart.
July 19, 2013 at 1:33 am
You are so cool! I do not believe I’ve read through something like that before. So wonderful to find somebody with some genuine thoughts on this issue. Seriously.. thanks for starting this up. This site is one thing that’s needed on the web,
someone with a little originality!
June 11, 2013 at 4:18 pm
Estoy con psoriasis por demasiados meses y probado variedad de tecnicas con limitado resultado
April 20, 2013 at 8:19 pm
When I initially commented I clicked the “Notify me when new comments are added”
checkbox and now each time a comment is added I get
several emails with the same comment. Is there any way you can remove people from that service?
Thanks a lot!
April 20, 2013 at 8:29 pm
i can delete the comment, is the only thing I can do
October 19, 2012 at 12:40 pm
[…] This is what led me to model what would have happened in 2010 if abstention had been lower and asked myself: How much lower did it have to be in order to move the 2010 results to a tie? The answer scared me, it was only 4% in an election with 32% abstention. Most pollsters were saying abstention wold be 27-28%, thus I concluded that abstention would have to be below 25% for Capriles to lose, but except for one pollster that I don’t follow (who claimed abstention would be in the single digits), nobody was suggesting it could be that low and in any case in 2006 abstention was 25%, there was no reason to think it would or could be lower than that. […]
October 7, 2012 at 9:42 pm
[…] the difference began opening up. Abstention is simply incredible, never had been that low. Remember this graph? It had a lot to do with it, but it was not the full story. Share […]
October 6, 2012 at 8:48 am
http://babalublog.com/2012/10/well-use-hot-lead-there-will-be-a-bloodbath-if-caprilles-is-declared-winner-says-chavez-ally/
Plenty of animals are on the loose in Venezuela. (Need to be caged.)
October 6, 2012 at 8:51 am
http://faustasblog.com/2012/10/venezuela-tupamaros-threaten-death-to-opposition/
October 3, 2012 at 1:09 pm
I would like add just one more thing. If there is going to be a confrontation regarding the election results, my bet is that Hugo Chavez can’t handle it. How can he if he can’t handle going to a campaign rally? Furthermore, the Chavista hierarchy also won’t be able to handle it. How can they if they can’t even handle prison uprisings?
October 3, 2012 at 12:43 pm
Granted, there is lots of uncertainty regarding polls, who are going to vote and for whom, whether the vote counting process will be fair, whether a losing Hugo Chavez will transfer power peacefully, etc. However, will these uncertainties be over in just five days, or will the they persist in a new form? My take is that there is going to be lots of uncertainty after the election continuing, except for one thing. Capriles says that he makes sure that every vote he gets will be counted! He apparently has a track record for doing so as well. My sense, or perhaps my hope, is that the Chavisa track record of incompetence and thuggery will be unprepared for Capriles’ superior organization. I think the focus will swiftly change from election results to a confrontation between the two parties that will clearly show incompetence and thuggery on one side and superior organization on the other and the masquerade will be over!
October 3, 2012 at 1:45 am
Miguel,
What is your take on the fairness of the election? My theory is that it doesn’t matter how many people vote for Capriles, because the vote is rigged for Chavez to win no matter how many people vote for him. I would suggest you don’t get too excited about Capriles – there is just no way that Chavez is going to cede power.
October 3, 2012 at 7:38 am
Chavez ceding power & the fairness of the election are 2 separate issues.
The MUD will know the results based on the printouts & the mesa review. So in this aspect the election will be fair.
What happens next is the big question mark. Capriles will win on Sunday. There will be no squirm room for Chavez.
If he doesn’t accept the results then it will be a coup & a whole different ball of wax. Let’s deal with that when it happens & keep our hopes alive that things will go well on Sunday, Sunday night & Monday morning.
Capriles will win the majority of voters on Sunday.
Hay un camino!
October 3, 2012 at 4:12 pm
Island, you have been so consistent so very consistent in your belief that Capriles will win that it strikes me. In fact, from all the people that I have red/listened/discussed with or talked to, including my blogger friends, you are the one that since the beginning was able to convey certainty on the victory.
It starts to tinkle in my spirit that you may be right.
What it is? Why you feel this time around is different?
Can you elaborate on the difference with 2006?
October 3, 2012 at 4:41 pm
Bruni:
I live in Venezuela (25+ years) and, although I’m a Canadian, I have few foreign friends. I’m married to a Venezuelan & run a business here.
I’ve watched every event that I could since the beginning of the primaries.
Since 2006, which both my wife & her sister voted for Chavez, I’ve seen them & their friends (at least 10 that I know voted for Chavez in 2006) change from Chavistas light to rabid opposition.
Then there have been the 300 appearances by Capriles including one here in our local area that I attended. The turnout on Sunday in CCS, in Barcelona & Merida yesterday & today in Portuguesa show a level of enthusiasm that did not exist in 2006. There were large turnouts in Caracas but not in the rest of the country as there are in 2012.
And finally it’s a personal thing. My whole future rests on what happens on Sunday. Our business will not survive another 6 years of Chavismo. I will not survive another 6 years. Venezuela will not survive. Things like private property & human rights will disappear – he’s already promised that. So my enthusiasm, while based on knowledge, is personal.
He will win on Sunday – there are no other options.
Hay un camino!
October 3, 2012 at 6:53 pm
Don’t know if anyone had a chance to see Capriles & Pablo Perez in Maracaibo.
It was incredible!
You can feel the emotion. Sunday will be a day of victory for HCR!
October 3, 2012 at 9:54 am
Pedro: I don’t believe it is rigged to that extent, I wrote three articles on fraud. I think the voting system itself can not be tampered with, that the RE has maybe 10,000-20,000 possible double votes, that the fingerprints intimidate and that f we have not witnesses at some tables, the voters that did not show up “will vote”. But I dont believe the whole thing can be rigged. The voting machines spew out the result before transmission occurs, many copies are printed and given to the witnesses, then 54% of the tables are randomly audited using the paper cup random generator. So, where is the rigging?
October 3, 2012 at 12:35 pm
Miguel, I found almost 10000 double records (20000 people with exactly the same full name and birthday)…a few are just coincidence (José Rodríguez will be born twice every day), but most, like Juan Cristóbal Aristigueta Sánchez, will not.
But those are just the records we know of because we did a very simple, trivial comparison by checking the names and the birthdays as one primary key. This is very basic. If someone just put different birth dates, there is no way we can know…
October 4, 2012 at 1:36 am
And let me be clear:
hay un camino.
I will be voting for Capriles as early as possible on Sunday.
I only have to travel 1 hour, but I would travel weeks to do so.
October 3, 2012 at 2:42 pm
I hope you are right, Miguel. This way there is a real chance for Capriles. And then of course there is the separate question, as Island Canuck noted, of whether Chavez will actually cede power. Time will tell.
October 2, 2012 at 11:43 pm
[…] I don’t see the Capriles excitement everyone is talking about. And with voter turnout as a major variable in the outcome of the race, that lack of excitement could matter on Sunday. Like this:LikeBe the first to like […]
October 3, 2012 at 11:21 am
Sapito…..
Please read the following chronicle “El Furor” written by your colleague Leonardo Padron, about a day of campaign with HCR.
Your opinion on this chronicle be much appreciated.
Thank you.
http://www.el-nacional.com/politica/furor_0_49795121.html
October 3, 2012 at 11:25 am
I liked it a lot and sent him a message asking him if I could translate it and place it here, never heard back.
October 2, 2012 at 9:39 pm
Is Chavez smelling sulfur?
October 3, 2012 at 2:43 pm
Yes, produced by him.
October 2, 2012 at 9:34 pm
Totally off-topic, but Miguel, you haven’t blogged about it:
Chavez’s claim that Obama would vote for him. (Which as a liberal and Obama supporter has caused me headaches from Republicans yelling, “SEE!?”
Until this evening when my wife told me, I didn’t realize that there was a racist element to Chavez’s full statement, referencing that if Venezuelan, Obama would be living in Bolobento (spelling?), a predominantly black area.
Am I getting the story right, and is that the whole story to this?
Any reaction in VZ about it?
October 2, 2012 at 11:26 pm
I prefer to keep Obama, Romney and US politics out of this.
October 3, 2012 at 5:18 am
But what about the racist element to what he said? That’s leaving U.S. politics out of it, isn’t it?
October 3, 2012 at 6:12 am
Ira, I am not Miguel but I will give my opinion:
as you surely know, darker Venezuelans tend to be poorer than whiter Venezuelans. That is a fact. And so, darker Venezuelans tended to vote more for Chávez. But in 1998 and 1999 they were voting for the traditional parties because rural people (and they tend to live in rural areas) always tended to change last.
But things have been changing a lot.
Chavismo has been trying to rewrite our history. That is easier to sell abroad. Almost every Venezuelan whose ancestors had more than 3 generations in the country has native American and sub-Saharan blood…and almost all Venezuelans, including the very dark, have some European blood as well.
There are several municipios in Miranda with the darkest people in Venezuela, apart from a few places in such areas as Northern Carabobo and Zulia. There Chávez has the majority, but still the opposition has from 38% to around 45%. Do you think that 38-45% are whiter? Not at all.
In my Venezuelan family you find all the skin colours of Venezuela. My very infamous Chavista aunt, the only one who is still Chavista, is the whitest.
I have cousins much darker than Obama and all of them are going to vote Capriles. They are not rich. One is a taxi driver, another is a lorry driver, another is a mechanic, etc.
It’s more an urban versus rural thing.
October 3, 2012 at 12:10 pm
I appreciate the explanation, but what I really want to know was if there were any repercussions in VZ as to what Hugo said about Obama and Bolobento (again I question my spelling) being kind of racist. Like because Obama is this color, he would be living THERE.
I’m curious because that’s how it’s playing here in South Florida. (Well, at least in my WIFE’S world in South Florida.)
October 3, 2012 at 12:29 pm
Barlovento it is…
I think some people – oppos, ninis and even Chavistas – will be pissed off but only a tiny minority.
I actually am pissed off but I am pissed off by anything Chávez says.
I find a lot of Chávez’ comments very racist but most Venezuelans seem to have donkey skin when it comes to that…unless they see this is serious talking about someone close to them.
This is one of those million comments that will flow away like rain water down Glasgow’s gutters. The vast majority won’t even notice.
This was not the first time – “negro, tú deberías hacer esto” (black, you need to do this”)
He said something about Condolezza that was pretty nasty, and then told Aristóbulo, who is very dark-skinned, to
“give it to her”.
Chávez has previously said about Obama that he should be acting otherwise because he is black.
This was hardly discussed in Venezuela.
Do you know what pissed off a lot of people even from his side? When he said this election is not about blackouts or so but about the Fatherland.
This is it…pretty sad.
October 3, 2012 at 3:13 pm
“This is one of those million comments that will flow away like rain water down Glasgow’s gutters. The vast majority won’t even notice.”-
Please pardon my interruption, but this fits with what I have been thinking.
Of course, Chavez is surrounded by “yes-men”, but also a press that is the same and not just chavistas-here’s the point-THE VAST MAJORITY.
As you say- “they won’t even notice”. This applies not only to his comments, but to his behavior. For example, a billion dollar deal-not requested by the Army, not discussed by AN, just decided and executed by Chavez and everyone acts like they don’t even care…
October 3, 2012 at 3:26 pm
And furthermore, those who DO CARE about these things, these phrases from Chavez are going to vote for Capriles 7O, for sure.
October 3, 2012 at 2:42 pm
well explained Kep. Thanks for bringing up the issue Ira. I found it an interesting read.
October 2, 2012 at 9:28 pm
Un dia menos. Cinco dias mas.
I believe frustration will be a bigger factor among past Chavez supporters than abstention. A huge percentage of Venezuelans who in the past voted strictly with Chavez will turn and vote for Capriles because they see what little Chavez has done in 14 years. They may walk out of the mesa appearing to have voted for Chavez but they didn’t. Sort of like stealth Capriles supporters.
October 2, 2012 at 9:08 pm
Miguel, I think abstention will hurt chavismo more than the opposition. No question Capriles has momentum on his side, so I don’t think abstention will be an issue for him. What I wonder, though, is whether officialismo may counteract abstention by tipping rojitos into voting. As sad and pathetic as it sounds, too often all it takes is a case of beer to buy people into supporting the regime.
October 2, 2012 at 11:25 pm
It depends how well organized they are, I think they are not, but I can’t prove it.
October 2, 2012 at 7:58 pm
OT.-
Today, Chavez forfeited rally in Puerto La Cruz !!! Too sick? Too tired?
El Jefe del Comando de Campaña Carabobo Anzoátegui, Tarek William Saab confirmó para hoy martes un triunfal acto de concentración de los revolucionarios previsto desde horas de la tarde, evento que marcará el cierre de campaña electoral del Candidato de la Patria Hugo Rafael Chávez Frías y que abarrotarán toda la Calle Sucre de Puerto La Cruz, municipio Sotillo.
http://venezuelaaldia.com/2012/10/chavez-cerrara-campana-en-lar-y-anzoategui-este-martes/
http://www.lapatilla.com/site/2012/10/02/cierre-de-campana-hoy-en-anzoategui/
October 2, 2012 at 8:20 pm
Tarima waiting for Chavez in Puerto La Cruz. (picture # 2).
http://www.noticierodigital.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=907620&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=0
October 2, 2012 at 11:24 pm
VJ: this is the most interesting thing. Basically, this means Chavez can not appear tomorrow (Wenesday), because he can not afford not to appear on Thursday for the last rally.
October 4, 2012 at 11:03 am
I’m from Puerto La Cruz, Chavez was never expected here. Also I was in the capriles act, and I seriusly doubt we were more than 50K people, however it was so hot and humid that day, that it was purely conviction to see Capriles that keep me there for almost 4 hours until he arrived.
As for the PSUV act in Sucre Street, like I said before chavez was not expected, there where some buses in the morning, but not army or GN on the street , that is the norm when Chavez or someone high in the goverment comes to the city…
October 2, 2012 at 6:07 pm
If the election is close, I think it is very likely that one side or the other will challenge the election. This is what I’m worrying about! Then, there must be a challenge mechanism in the constitution, and there will be a need for either the courts, the CNE, or the military to play a leadership roll in adjudicating the complaint, and the decision is probably not going to be perceived “neutral” by whichever is the losing party. This may be the most likely outcome… nevermind the polls!
October 2, 2012 at 7:18 pm
Gordo,
I agree and in a polarized context like current Venezuela’s, this has the potential to be explosive.
Once a foreign journalist told me that he never believed any information coming from one or the other side in Venezuela. And that is the problem: when a country does not believe in its institutions, everything is possible. That is the tragedy of this 14 years, we ended up with a no-country.
People on one side of the spectrum tend to believe only their side and think the other is cheating, and vice-versa.
I recently asked someone in Caracas who was winning and he told me: it depends who you ask.
October 3, 2012 at 8:21 am
Bruni,What I find odd is that when you ask foreigners they are all sure that Chavez will find a way to win.When you ask Venezuelans, they are mostly sure Capriles will win.In both cases it is frustrating because both camps are totally sure of themselves, which makes me think that there is just way too much knee jerk reaction.
October 3, 2012 at 8:46 am
Good point Bruini, I don’t believe absolutely anything that comes from the government (including the illness of Chavez – all a show although I don’t know what its purpose was). However, I realize one has to take what the opposition says also with a grain of salt -something i don’t usually do.
The institutions (by definition: the goverment) : totally corrupted, unfortunately including the CNE. How can anyone believe anything that comes out of the CNE. The voter rolls? Ha! The nine million new voters added during the Chavez years almost doubling the number of voters prior to Chavez? Who are these people?
And don’t get me started on the polls. How can anyone believe any number coming out of these outfits. I don’t even believe they actually interview people.
It is a great gig, publish some numbers scribbled in the back of an envelope and get paid by some political party.
Is polling the only business the flourishes in Venezuela?
For a country of only 30 million people how could we have these many pollsters?
Keller & Asociados
GIS XXI
Cifras C.A.
Instituto Venezolano de Análisis de Datos
Consultores 30.11
Datanálisis
Hinterlaces
Consultores 21
Varianzas
Predicmatica
Hercon Consultores
Topdata
Datos Interdata
And I am sure I am missing a few.
October 2, 2012 at 5:51 pm
Capriles en Barcelona = pure gold.
Examples more or less:
Hagan su lista de sus problemas, y pregúntense, qué ha hecho la revolución para solucionarlos, en estos últimos 14 años?
Todos en PDVSA seguirán en su empleo. Solo un hombre saldrá de PDVSA…
Cada uno de ustedes es un Bolívar que se faja para traer la tranquilidad a sus hogares.
October 2, 2012 at 5:43 pm
Just in case nobody saw my question posted previously; it’s a simple question which I don’t believe I’ve seen posed before…If Chavez wins “officially” but voting irregularities are documented… what then?
October 3, 2012 at 1:57 am
I asked the same thing a few blog posts ago. Unfortunately there isn’t much that can be done. International intervention is exceedingly unlikely (soverignty + half of Latin America is in Hugo’s pocket), and armed rebellion even more so.
There are few other possibilities and none that I can see.
Perhaps even more importantly – even if Chavez wins without fraud, then the election is still a sham. The playing field is so uneven there are only two possibilities: either Capriles wins, or we’re seeing a perversion of democracy.
October 2, 2012 at 4:42 pm
Just wondering,
On this graph, when the number of Chavistas increases, their share of votes increases. How does an increase in the number of Opposition, make their share of votes decrease?
October 2, 2012 at 11:23 pm
The point is the oppo was very motivated in 2010, Chavismo was not. The oppo remains highly motivated, Chavismo is more motivated because their idol is running. Hopefully, they wll not be but polls always fail to detect that well.
October 2, 2012 at 3:48 pm
To me, one of the most telling things is that Chavez, very uncharacteristically, insisted that the killers of the two or three activists this weekend would be brought to justice. That’s out of character. Chavez would ordinarily be cheering such killings or at least ignoring them. His loud insistence that the killers be brought to justice can only mean one thing: that he’s worried he will be defeated and if he is defeated, his next stop will be jail, the same fate for the same sort of crimes as Fujimori committed. I would bet he’s completely phobic of this prospect. Based on his sudden conversion to rule of law in these killings, I think Chavez knows he may lose.
October 2, 2012 at 5:39 pm
I hope you are right and I hope Chavez loses and pray that he has to
face justice.
October 2, 2012 at 3:29 pm
mucha atención al monólogo de Jaime Bayly …. Programa reciente que dura 20min….. Hay un camino !!! http://youtu.be/oii_RJYCg7w
Enviado desde mi dispositivo movil BlackBerry® de Digitel.
October 2, 2012 at 3:03 pm
Miguel don’t waste your time with the “data points”, it’s Chavez 54-46.
It doesn’t matter how many abstentions or who has momentum or how many opposition members will be monitoring the results in the scary “totalization room”.
It is fixed.
Do you remember the marches in ’06 for Rosales? I think they were even bigger than the ones this year for Capriles. I think Rosales won that election.
Nothing mattered then, nothing will matter now. It is fixed. Because Chavez can’t afford to lose.
October 2, 2012 at 3:11 pm
George: yes, rosales’ marches were big, but the polls sais he was down, down big time (except Keller) That is the difference this time. Ithink the fudging has gotten smaller since 2004, when I estimated it was about 5%. If we have the witnesses it may be about 1%. That can be beat. Chavez will not risk cheating. This time, if he loses he may try a different approach. I still believe it can only happen before the votes begin to be counted.
October 2, 2012 at 4:02 pm
If Chavez wins “officially” but voting irregularities are documented… what can happen then?
October 3, 2012 at 7:32 am
I think people were afraid to tell the pollsters who they would vote for….who knows who the pollsters really were (Chavistas?).
I agree with George, it doesn’t matter. Chavez will not leave power via the ballot box. Mark my words – I’ve been saying it forever. Why would he? Why would Castro, or Saddam, or any other two bit dictator?
October 3, 2012 at 1:24 pm
In spite of the what you see from the generals at the top, the FAN is NOT uniformly rojo rojito. We are just going to have to see how it plays out.
October 2, 2012 at 3:12 pm
All polling back then (including C21) clearly said Chavez was going to win. Now They place Capriles ahead in a close race…. Times have changed, and Rosales never won btw…..
October 2, 2012 at 5:52 pm
George.
No, the marches of Rosales were not bigger. They were smaller. Capriles is BIG wherever he goes. Even in chavista redoubts. The size big meaning biv for the visited area, of course.
October 2, 2012 at 3:02 pm
Isn’t Fco. Rodriguez head economist for Latin America at BoA? Any reason to suspect that he has better information than the polls that have been discussed in this blog?
October 2, 2012 at 3:08 pm
Yes, its him, well, if he believes in Datanalisis then he believes Chavez will win easily. That is precisely why I think that would not be the case.
October 2, 2012 at 2:50 pm
Well, thank you for your mark of respect 🙂
I will be awaiting eagerly that “last” data that you seem to be the lone one to receive…..
October 2, 2012 at 2:55 pm
Note that I am working now at 25% abstention, which as you say gives Chavez an advantage. But I am seeing that Capriles is able to peel away votes from Chavez, which I did not think possible before, namely in Lara, Zulia and even Libertador. I have assumed that this in part compensates for the lower abstention. But it is impossible to measure I think, at this time anyway, so it is gut feeling, I confess.
That is, at 30% abstention Capriles win by 5% without problem. I hope, I pray.
October 2, 2012 at 3:13 pm
Nothing mysterious, just one more pollster to report.
October 2, 2012 at 5:13 pm
Datos?
October 2, 2012 at 1:59 pm
Jose: i discussed this in this post:
http://devilsexcrement.com/2012/08/13/protecting-the-votes-in-venezuela-part-i-the-evolution-of-the-electoral-registry/
October 2, 2012 at 3:16 pm
Thank you!
October 2, 2012 at 1:47 pm
I apologize if this is a particular issue that has already been addressed here adn I somehow missed, but has anyone (MUD, etc) analyzed voter registration rolls to weed out false/fake voter registrations that HC- PSUV could use to boost their final numbers?
October 2, 2012 at 12:34 pm
There are many players in this, bonds have not dropped because yield across the world has gone down dramatically in the last few months, it is all relative. In reality, very few brokers in NY think Chavez can lose, Bank of America is just more emphatic that he will win by a large margin.
October 2, 2012 at 12:31 pm
Miguel What do you think of this article by Bocaranda:
http://runrun.es/runrunes/55531/de-como-sacarle-plata-al-miedo-electoral-y-bastante-en-dolares.html
“Una conversación con los colegas Blanca Vera Azaf y Roland Carreño hace unos momentos me animó a compartir, con el permiso de ellos, la noticia que nos reunió. Debo decir que Roland es el director de la revista Hola-Venezuela y Blanca es periodista de la sección de Economía del diario de Los Cortijos.
El más reciente informe sobre Venezuela del Bank of America Merrill Lynch señala que la victoria del presidente Hugo Chávez está asegurada el próximo domingo 7 de Octubre.
Blanca me alerta sobre el tema y me preocupó de tal manera que por eso lo escribo, no siendo el área económica mi fuerte.
Según ella, cuando un informe de esa talla saca un escenario diciendo que es imposible que Chávez pierda los inversionistas se asustan y venden los bonos de PDVSA y de la República Bolivariana de Venezuela por temor a perder 5% luego de las elecciones.
Venden los bonos pero alguien los compra. Ese que los compra, si gana Henrique Capriles, se puede meter hasta un 40% de ganancias en tan solo cuatro meses.
Blanca insiste: “Lo que te quiero decir es que hay un juego macabro de decir que Chavez gana para que los tenedores vendan y quien compre haga multimillonarias ganancias.
Tienes que decirlo porque la gente no puede ser tan coneja”.
Cierra enfática advirtiéndome: “El Bank of America ha perdido mucho dinero desde la crisis del 2006 y por eso se lanza con este dramático informe. Es un negocio. Money talks and they listen. Me puedes citar si quieres”.”
This makes sense, although it seems investors are not taking the bait as bonds haven’t dropped, right?
October 2, 2012 at 1:21 pm
I completely agree with Blanca. Reminds me of a report produced by the international division of a large Cdn bank that I will not name (but used to work for). The 1991 report justified the loan to a Philippino copper mine (a pet project of the bank’s chairman) on the basis of growth in the copper markets, especially given China’s then fledgling growth. I suggested caution, supported by the predicted downturn in cu pricing, as per the Financial Times. Thunderstorms and lightning struck. How dare I. All during the 90’s, copper prices dipped, the mine unable to make its interest payments, which were based on market price. But in the 2000s, copper pricing went on the upside, so the chairman and the bank were happy.
All this to say, banking decisions aren’t foolproof and internal politics do play a part.
October 2, 2012 at 12:11 pm
This just goes back to what I’ve thought all along, and Miguel, you just said it: Chavismo does have a lot to loose on Sunday, and a win by Capriles by less than 10% (round number) is, in my opinion, too easy to steal by the Government. Yet again, there’s nothing else I’d want right now than an end to the abyss Venezuela has been in for the last 13 years, but I do think, as impressive as Capriles’s rallies have been, he might (just might) win by much less than 10%, and that’d be too easy for the Government to manipulate. Which takes me to my other point, which is that Chavez will be gone whenever his cancer (and I don’t doubt he’s ill with cancer), to put it some way, eats him up.
In any case, I will, as I have in any single election since I’ve been 18 years or older, vote next Sunday, “llueve, truene o relampaguee”.
October 2, 2012 at 11:25 am
No, I dont, but what he does is analyze and talk about this:
http://yvpolis.blogspot.co.uk/
October 2, 2012 at 11:19 am
Miguel, I asked over on CC if JC knew anything about Christian Burgazzi, to whom Jaime Bayly referred in this video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g775sjENmMM. Do you know anything about him? And, if so, what is your opinion?
October 2, 2012 at 12:53 pm
Cmoore,
I knew him in person fairly well over a period of about 5 years back in the 80’s.He is a very smart man, from the Communist persuasion( think urban guerrilla,and an engineer with some knowledge of personal growth.I also know that he has been solidly anti Chavez.
October 2, 2012 at 1:22 pm
I read in Miguel A. Santos twitter (last week) that he is an HR specialist, and suddenly an expert on polls…
October 2, 2012 at 1:54 pm
an engineer (no mention of what type) who ended up in Human Resources? Hmmmm, ’nuff said.
October 2, 2012 at 9:20 pm
Syd, I worked personally with him many years ago.
He’s a civil engineer, MBA from IESA, but began working very young in an international firm specialized in human resources. Same company is a pioneer in salary surveys. En dos platos: mucha estadística pues.
He began there as a Consultant, ended as General Manager and if I’m not mistaken was transferred to Italy to an executive position.
If you need more details, send me an email.
October 2, 2012 at 10:52 pm
Liz, thank you for your verification of his credentials. What he had to say was, at least to me, very illuminating.
October 3, 2012 at 12:51 pm
Liz, It’s that I personally have known two engineers who’ve ended up in Human Resources (and they’re excellent at their jobs), a corporate support function, generally known for handling but not producing great amounts of quantitative data, available from, for example, actuarial scientists at major insurance companies.
What I implied was that I wasn’t sure how much polling background CB had for producing the polling information for a televised audience.
What WAS GOOD was CBs making note of the uptrend in the Capriles camp, and his analogy to the finish line in a race where the challenger keeps moving up and can often overtake the one thought to win.
We’ll know on 8O, if not a few hours before, what that finish line will look like.
October 2, 2012 at 1:53 pm
To me, Bayly is a clever flake who’s terribly in love with himself, and who has a somewhat entertaining program with an audience share. I would hardly bet the bank on anything he said. Furthermore, I suspect, based on JBs unnatural repetitions of X or Y, that he issues a proposal to these people (Cisneros in particular, as in ka-ching) to see if they’re interested in the publicity … for a price.
The Christian Burgazzi presentation felt like I was watching the late, late , late show produced in someone’s basement. It was weird that JB didn’t make any mention of CB’s bona fides — as they related to the polling predictions. Como si cayera del cielo este pobre hombre.
In any event, the presentation was interesting to hear, but I wouldn’t invest too much stock in it.
October 3, 2012 at 8:29 am
Christian and I did our MBAs at IESA in the mid-80s and at that time I got to know him very well, since we both went to UNC-Chapel HIll on an exchange program.
That was a long time ago, but he was(is) extremely intelligent and graduated among the top 4 or 5 of the class.
As mentioned here, he was an engineer but he had an inclination for the social sciences and after his MBA he made a career at HAY in HR and organizational consulting.
I’m going to watch the video now, but I would take anything Christian says very seriously.
October 3, 2012 at 8:51 am
Alex, I agree with you.Christian is super intelligent, and quite apt for this type of analysis.