President Hugo Chávez has just been reelected as President of Venezuela by more than one million votes. According to the Electoral Board, these are the results with 90% of the vote counted, 19.9% abstention:
Hugo Chávez Frías 54.42% 7.444.082 votes
Henrique Capriles Radonzky 44.97% 6.151.594 votes
I am in no mood to analyze, abstention was incredibly low, I understand Zulia went badly, it was when that State started coming in that the difference began opening up. Abstention is simply incredible, never had been that low. Remember this graph? It had a lot to do with it, but it was not the full story.
The Devil's Excrement 
October 10, 2012 at 11:11 pm
En Octubre 9, 2012, Chávez supera los 8 millones de votos.
El presidente Hugo Chávez superó la barrera de los ocho millones de votos. Con el escrutinio de 38.066 mesas (96,7%) alcanzó la cifra de 8.044.106 sufragios válidos, lo que equivale a 55,11% de los ciudadanos que participaron en la elección presidencial.
Por su parte, el aspirante de oposición, Henrique Capriles Radonski obtiene 6.461.612 votos válidos, lo que equivale a 44,27% de los electores que sufragaron el domingo.
Este conteo aún es parcial, porque faltan por totalizarse 952 mesas en Venezuela y los votos emitidos en el exterior, concretamente en 127 misiones diplomáticas.
[Ver Chávez supera los 8 millones de votos El Universal, Martes 9 de octubre de 2012, 12:00 AM]
Si estas 38.066 mesas recibieron 14,505,718 votos válidos, a razón de unos 381 votos por mesa, en promedio, tuvieron que recibirlos a razón de casi 31,8 votos por hora; o sea, a unos 2 minutos por voto durante 12 horas, sostenido en cada mesa!
Y esto es sin considerar los votos nulos, que también toman su tiempo cada uno.
On October 9, 2012, Reelected President Chávez obtains over eight million votes.
Venezuelan reelected President Hugo Chávez surpassed the eight million vote threshold. Upon review and counting of ballots in 38,066 polling stations (96.7%), the reelected president gained 8,044,106 valid votes totaling 55.11% of the electorate.
For his part, challenger Henrique Capriles Radonski obtained 6,461,612 (44.27%).
The final figures are yet to come. Counting is still pending in another 952 polling stations in Venezuela and 127 abroad.
[See Chávez supera los 8 millones de votos El Universal, Martes 9 de octubre de 2012, 12:00 AM]
If these 38,066 poling stations received 14.505.718 valid votes, at a rate of 381 votes each, in average, they had to receive them a rate of almost 31.8 votes per hour; that is, some 2 minutes per vote during 12 hours, sustained at each station!
And this does not consider the null votes, each taking some time also.
October 9, 2012 at 4:22 pm
“That’s a big payroll! What exactly do they produce?”
Votos for Chavez – that’s what you get when the 47% becomes 50% +1.
October 8, 2012 at 8:08 pm
The last number I saw said that the public sector in Venezuela is over 2.4 million people. With that many people (and their families) on Chavez’ payroll, it will be nearly impossible to vote him out of office.
October 8, 2012 at 8:49 pm
That’s a big payroll! What exactly do they produce?
October 8, 2012 at 9:43 pm
Which is why I maintain that anyone taking a government paycheck should give up the right to vote. Part of the deal: You want government money, fine, but you don’t get to vote yourself more of it.
October 8, 2012 at 5:26 pm
I’m sorry people. I had planned to invest a lot of money in Venezuela. Now, my plans are off the table. If any of you can offer me some hope, I will listen with eager ears.
My financial adviser tells me that Venezuela is no longer considered an “emerging economy,” and any investments I do here would be too risky. He says that I should expect to lose it all.
October 8, 2012 at 4:45 pm
No, all machines are identified and actas counted. Cuba had seven voting centers, manual count, there were witnesses there for the oppo.
October 8, 2012 at 4:42 pm
Could there have been vote machines in Cuba that were counted?
October 8, 2012 at 4:15 pm
Miguel, have you heard from Island Canuck???
October 8, 2012 at 7:12 pm
Carolina…maybe Roy has….I have been thinking of him…
October 8, 2012 at 3:22 pm
With 97% of the votes counted, I dont see any one million vote inconsistency.
October 8, 2012 at 3:21 pm
Again, the numbers dont add up! missing more then a million votes.
maybe it is just not important?
October 8, 2012 at 3:08 pm
There are no inconsistencies that I know of, people throwing numbers up in the air and reaching conclusions. I have seen no evidence of any hanky panky
October 8, 2012 at 3:06 pm
Are the rumours true that 3 million votes were supressed and the army brought in to close the voting. Capriles and his family threatened unless he conceded.?
October 8, 2012 at 1:56 pm
Aca el comentario de Andres es la mejor respuesta/comentario que he leido sobre si hay democracia en Venezuela y la validez de estas elecciones.
http://www.the-counterpoint.com/discussion/U
October 8, 2012 at 12:52 pm
I’m suspicious about Capriles conceding so quickly and easily. There would have been plenty of time to ask a few questions such as those being asked above. Not a chance in hell that in Nueva Esparta a majority voted for Chavez. Reminds me of Kerry taking a dive for Bush in 2004.
October 8, 2012 at 1:04 pm
Rosales in 2006?
October 8, 2012 at 1:15 pm
M Astera,
I totally agree with you.Maybe he is just trying to avoid violence but at what price?
October 8, 2012 at 1:28 pm
we need the violence against this fucking dictator
October 8, 2012 at 1:58 pm
And this is exactly the type of reasoning that keeps the opposition on the losing side of every election. The facts must be assessed objectively. It’s almost narcissistic what you’re doing here. That something is inexplicable to you does not mean that there is a conspiracy afoot, but that there are data that you are not seeing or taking into account. By the way, Kerry did not “take a dive” for Bush. The latter won that election fair and square. To me, at least, it is obvious that Kerry would have been the better choice, but facts are facts, and the guy couldn’t sway the voters.
October 8, 2012 at 2:41 pm
El padre sogol
What keeps Chavez winning every time is naivety on the part of the people and that includes those who think they are vivo by using their connections to make money.When someone thinks it ALL through, that someone ends up realizing that the honorable thing is always the smartest thing in the long run.Most vivos are naive.
October 8, 2012 at 12:49 pm
Bueno. Sigo en estado desinflado y lloron pero tengo que ponerme a trabajar por que a mi el estado no me pasa pensión.
Aqui les dejo una cancionista para que los que quieran me acompañen en mi depre y que hoy le canto a Venezuela.
“No me pidas que sonria que estoy triste…”
October 8, 2012 at 12:43 pm
I lived in South Africa during the apartheid era. The tide changed almost immediately when the ANC organized a couple of one day strikes! If the millions of Capriles voters did the same, it would demonstrate the economic power we have. Chavistas have no idea!
October 8, 2012 at 1:06 pm
Do you remember or know about the strikes in 2002? How did that work out? Chavez systematically took control of all petropleum, power, water, communications, steel, concrete, etc. to prevent just that from happening again. Chavistas know very well.
October 8, 2012 at 1:21 pm
This already happened in Venezuela in 2002 and it did not work. The reason is that the process taking place in the country is the exact opposite of what was taking place during apartheid. In Venezuela the opressed are being liberated and empowered, while in South Africa the government was the force of opression. Of course, you are too privileged to realise that.
October 8, 2012 at 4:37 pm
It did work, but it was primarily a petroleum strike at PDVSA and the economy was much stronger then! In fact, it would have been completely successful except for one individual businessman who helped Chavez ship oil.
Anyway, I’m only talking about one-day strikes. Four million people on strike puts the whole economy to a standstill. Furthermore, Chavez’s tactic of replacing a work force with loyalists has not been effective. You think he wants to keep doing that?
At the moment, the government is facing another currency devaluation and a foreign exchange liquidity crisis. The banking system is keeping the government afloat, and bonds are losing market appeal, and Morgan Stanley released a statement that Venezuela would be facing a default if Chavez won the election.
The strikes would bring the issue to the forefront rather than the current slow gradual famine. Chavez needs more stress in his life! It would really help his cancer! Chavez supporters need a taste of retribution.
October 8, 2012 at 9:04 pm
Chinchilla, vete ya ahora de de este sitio. Todos sabemos que eres Chavista, y por lo tanto, lavada del cerebro. Si no quieres informarte de la realidad del resto del mundo, como ya te dije, vaya a buscarte otro sitio en donde te reciban con los brazos abiertos. Aquí no lo encontrarás.
October 8, 2012 at 12:28 pm
On the bright side:
1-We proved we are the majority. Capriles vote in Venezuela + 1.8 million abroad x 0.90 > Chavistas.
2-The impending economic crisis will be under Chavismo watch.
3-New elections are coming soon.
Keep and soldify the MUD
Take care
October 8, 2012 at 12:42 pm
Does anyonone think that chavez will allow Capriles to linger around till 2018? Remember Rosales?
October 8, 2012 at 11:59 am
At least i can say Venezuela is Sick and his Hearth has Cancer =(
October 8, 2012 at 11:24 am
Could this guys theory on possible method for fraud hold water?
http://labatallafinalporvenezuela.blogspot.com/
October 8, 2012 at 10:04 am
Hoy soy puro moco, lagrimas y tristeza asi que no me voy a poner a hacer analisis porque la cabeza no me da, pero quiero compartir un par de cositas que no dejan de darme vueltas:
– Chavez gano en Zulia y Nueva esparta, y empato en MIRANDA???
– Por otra parte, siento que mas de 6 millones de venezolanos le perdieron el miedo. Eso me da un poquito de consuelo, pero hasta ahí.
October 8, 2012 at 10:36 am
Carolina,
Losing fear is the most important thing that could have happened.It marks a true beginning, not an end.
October 8, 2012 at 12:38 pm
– Chavez gano en Zulia y Nueva esparta, y empato en MIRANDA???
Not a chance in hell. I would guess that tibisay didn’t want to get choked by chavez like she did after anouncing the chavez referendom loss. That made a lasting impression. One choke is good for one referendom win and one presidential win. Wouldn’t you like to know what really went on behind those CNE doors, and what the real count was?
October 8, 2012 at 9:28 am
Has anybody done the maths?
18m voters x 80℅ = 14m votes
All votes counted = 13m
Where’s the other million votes?
October 8, 2012 at 9:52 am
Other candidates and null votes? I haven’t checked though.
October 8, 2012 at 9:57 am
These numbers were when only 90% of the votes had been counted.
October 8, 2012 at 11:15 am
10% more votes makes 20m voters? Thats not right.
October 8, 2012 at 10:05 am
Well, Chavez got 54.66% to Caprilles 44.73%, that means other candidates and null votes got 0,61%. Another 7% or so are missing.
October 8, 2012 at 8:31 am
I wrote this earlier on Daniel’s site and was not going to duplicate it. But I feel like if I do not it would be somehow disrespectful not to say it directly to you Miguel.
Thank you very much for your dilligence over the years. I usually toggle between you and daniel for updated information about what is going on around me. With the media blockage and government propaganda, the truth seldom surfaces about the “real” Venezuela that so many don’t know or understand. They only see what the government model wants them to see which is, everthing is fine and we are an example of the most democratic government in the world…What a fk’n joke that is.
I am not a Venezuelano, but after living here for over 10+ years and being married to a Venezuelana for half of that, I feel enlightened enough to make comments from time to time on these sites. A benefit of not being from here is that I see things sometimes differently, and I realize the black hole that Venezuela has become in recent years everytime I cross the border (doesn’t matter which one as all countries visited are a relaxed improvement).
What bothers me most about the vote result last night is that it was the last straw. We will never know the real vote count, but we now know that it is useless to vote again. Whether the CNE adjusted the vote count, or the rabid chavistas, wealthy opportunistas, drug cartels or the castro connection were actually able to inject that many votes to hold onto power, the result is the same. Useless or Hopeless, either one fits. The will of the people was not rewarded last night, and the disbelief this morning echoes a deafening silence. If Capriles reads this, I would like to say thanks for giving us the hope.
As soon as the borrowed flash election money dries up, conditions will deteriorate quickly. Parallel dollar rates of over 12/1 makes another devaluation certain. I am not sure what accelerating the socialist model means, but I am sure it is not good.
We have options that my wife’s family, and the friends that I have made over these 10+ years don’t have, and we will probably move on. But I feel mixed between sick to my stomach, and mad as hell about the future of the ones who will have to stay and endure this bizaro world castro model.
Thanks again for all you and Daniel have done for this country. I wish you the best.
October 8, 2012 at 8:29 am
Caprilles should keep his hat in the ring for when Chavez dies. There may be another election in less than 6 years. I say “may”, not because Chavez won’t die, but because his cronies might not allow an election for a legitimate president.
The good news is, he will have an easier time campaigning without Chavez around. The bad news is he will have an easier time winning because the shit is really going to hit the fan now:
Venezuelan oil production will continue to slump.
The recession in Europe will slow oil demand and goods demand from China, which in turn will slow oil demand.
Iraq and Libya will continue to increase oil production, unlike the in past 30 years.
Canada will get their pipelines.
Hi-bred cars are becoming common and Hummers are history.
All of these facts will cause oil to fall more in line with the other commodities. Everything else will get more expensive or oil will become cheaper. Either way, Venezuela’s oil dependent economy will go bankrupt.
Too bad the oil boom pushed Venezuela toward the Somalia end of the spectrum instead of the Dubai end.
October 8, 2012 at 8:27 am
Chavismo is, in a certain way a reflection of world wide problems.It is not just a problem for Venezuela only and it is time many of us viewed it like this in my opinion.
All of the negativity we are feeling right now can be used to continue the good fight, whether through words or through deeds ; in small ways or grand ones.
The fight has only begun and I suspect it will be a difficult one but worth it in the end.
I am not replying to anyone…this computer I am using does not allow me me to simply comment.
My heart goes out to all those living in Venezuela right now.It is really hard for all.
October 8, 2012 at 8:19 am
Here’s a thought or three: Maybe Chavez didn’t cheat; maybe there really ARE +55% of adults who want Chavez; maybe the Venezuelan people have exactly the president they deserve to have. Too many folks forget just how rotten Venezuela was before Chavez, in fact if not for the deep existential rot of those who came before Chavez there never would have been a Chavez at all. Maybe that “gloria al bravo pueblo” phrase is just a forgettable line in a song that never would have made the top million global hits anyway.
October 8, 2012 at 8:22 am
Well, I have to say that Gloria al Bravo Pueblo is gibberish.
You have “y al vil egoísmo que otra vez triunfó”. It should be
“y al vil egoísmo, que otrora triunfó”. Por eso es que está triunfando otra vez.
October 8, 2012 at 7:12 am
So venezuela has 6 million+ sifrino-looking voters? What rot.
October 8, 2012 at 7:14 am
That was in response to Paal.
October 8, 2012 at 7:07 am
Just one (small) example of Chavez’s corruption and the unfair electoral process: has anyone here received this kind of lettter:
October 8, 2012 at 7:12 am
Not only that, old age pensions were perfectly timed for delivery on Friday as well. It is called “bozal de arepa”.
October 8, 2012 at 7:21 am
What does it say?
October 8, 2012 at 8:52 am
This letter is a fake. It was originally dated 14 August 2012 and stated that the undersigned was nominated Director General of Autonomous Service of Registry and Notaries, confirmed in Gazeta Oficial #39985, same date. Enough cheating as it is without spreading this kind of horseshit around.
October 8, 2012 at 6:18 am
Guess what? Now Chavez has to deal with all the problems he has created to win the election. A forthcoming devaluation, inefficient electric delivery, crime, corruption, dishonesty in government, blacklisting non-chavistas, brain drain as more seek to leave Venezuela, and on and on.
October 8, 2012 at 8:46 am
He, Chavez, only cares about being president longer. His followers (those high up, or in any position to benefit from the government) don’t care about those problems you mention, and the people who voted for him (the electorate, the people) do care but one way or another have been coerced to vote for him or are dumb (not the majority, I hope). In summary, he, Chavez, doesn’t care about the problems you mentioned.
October 8, 2012 at 10:12 am
Guess what? He doesn’t care. And with control of the media, well, if a voice cries in the wilderness, does anyone hear it?
October 8, 2012 at 5:44 am
Not much to say:
Stunned silence, disappointment, and despair:
It’s over, and you can kiss the country off.
October 8, 2012 at 4:45 am
The election is over, but “it” isn’t over. Hay un Dios justo en los cielos observando, y en sus momentos kairos va a mover. Keep your eye on Capriles, his moment is yet to come. Watch what unfolds this year and maybe the following year. Things will happen that you aren’t imagining… por lo mejor.
October 8, 2012 at 5:36 am
” Hay un Dios justo en los cielos observando”
Remind me again who created Lucifer? Ok sure, he was an angel who revelled, but since god is supposed to be omnipotent he could and should have stopped him but didn’t, so there.
Also, Christ tells us on Luke 11:23 that “He who is not with Me is against Me”, which is exactly the kind of crap we are used to daily from you know who, so these two seem to agree with each other.
So please leave the religious BS out of this. If god does indeed exist he (she/it?) doesn’t give a flying f*ck.
October 8, 2012 at 8:27 am
God might be watching but he’s useless.
October 8, 2012 at 3:48 am
chavez can’t be removed by a socialdemocrat softy. although i hoped to be wrong. it’s a old phenomenom of venezuelan society, that they will follow a caudillo no matter what. he can only lose against an other caudillo who has at least the same carisma and power to lead the masses as he does. or that peoples actualy will vote against him (it’s a difference to vote against somebody or to vote in favor of the oposition). socialdemocraty has no future in venezuela. let’s take the example of colombia with alvaro uribe!
October 8, 2012 at 8:08 am
Why would social democracy have no future in Venezuela, but be victorious and effective in Brazil?
October 8, 2012 at 2:38 pm
the problem is that venezuela (as most of the southamerican countrys)during the democratic era from 1958 until 1999 only had socialdemocratic goverments. furthermore there was and is no right wing alternative, so people could only choose beetwen a little bit more and a little bit less socialdemoracy. ergo there was no real democracy at all. and as we all know chavez is the abortion of this 40 years adecocopeyanismo. so it’s primarely socaldemocracys’ fould that we are in this situacion.
as i said above i’m convinced that chavez can only be removed by an other caudillo (sad but true. it’s a little bit a complex theory that i have and my english is nod good enough to explain it with details). that’s why i don’t believe in first place that a neo-oldscool-socialdemocrat of the upperclass (ironicly enough in venezuela as in the rest of the world most the socialdemocrats are upperclass people) can beat chavez. although i really believe that capriles had an outstanding plan for venezuela and this eleccions!!
but the people of venezuela as they have shown yesterday to the world are not ready for “fancy” democratic thoughts.
i don’t know much details about brasil but:
brasil had already a very solid economie and infrastuctur before lula ran for president. sao paolo is almost as developt as an europeon city. the politics of lula and rousseff are very pragmatic. i have some brasilien friends who say that brasil would be better off with an other political, more economie friendly direccion… but i agree, i think lula did a good job.
October 8, 2012 at 1:40 am
A few hours ago when I heard the results announced, I accepted them (with resignation and disgust) about like Deanna above. Now it’s 2 am and I’m thinking a little more clearly and less emotionally. Do I believe that Chavez really won 54% to 45%? No. I don’t. What I believe is that those percentages are what he ordered, and what was delivered.
I seem to recall Chavez saying very clearly, recently, that there was no way he would lose.
Is there anything that he and his coterie have done honestly and fairly? No. Nothing I have ever heard of. So why would elections be the exception?
Paper ballots, marked by hand, deposited in a box by the voter, counted in view of the public, all who wish to observe get to observe. The results announced for each polling station publicly when and as the votes are counted, no ballots leave the polling station to be counted. Each polling station reports independently and publicly.
That would make it difficult to cheat. Voting on government owned electronic machines? The public will never know what the vote really was.
Paper ballots, hand counted, in public.
October 8, 2012 at 12:44 am
If the people of Venzuela willingly accept the chains, they will never get rid of them.
October 8, 2012 at 12:40 am
Do you really Chavez won? Last time all polls showed him losing recall with 59% against and it came out 59% for. They are flipping for the for/against votes.
October 8, 2012 at 1:32 am
That would lead to fairly inconsistent results where Chavez would receive a lot of votes in wealthy areas, whereas Caprilles would be supported in poor areas. That’s much too obvious.
Voter fraud or no, the election was stolen long ago by severe advantage Chavez had by blatant abuse of public resources.
October 8, 2012 at 12:34 am
It was and is ABSURD to think that Chavez would lose an election. He CONTROLS everything in Venezuela, save 6 million minds. Where there is a will, there is a way, this includes cheating. How many Cubans are in Venezuela today? Did none of them vote? And what of the absence of lines? I don’t mean the lines that we saw, I mean the hoards of voters – 80+% of the population.
If you believe Chavez won this election, I have some ‘waterfront’ land in Florida that you should consider purchasing…
October 7, 2012 at 11:52 pm
Stolen again…I was hoping that I was wrong about the CNE this time as so many opposition voiced support for the CNE process, and thought they could “observe” the vote. Guess we needed another Baduel behind the scenes to keep them honest. When cuba took control of the electoral registry, the 55 +/- win was guaranteed. The only unknown was how many Capriles votes would be cast to adjust the count accordingly. It is a sad day in Venezuela, and I believe we will start thinking about our exit plan.
October 7, 2012 at 11:01 pm
I also noticed inmediately from CNE figures this abstention issue.. too low, too good to be true…it looks like there was a votes creation process, somewhere , probably electronic votes from non audited machines..or the very CNE mainframe.. I do not know. But nobody will convince me that in a comfortable and nearby Chacao voting center we got 27% abstention and then, countrywide, we got less than 20%, with long lines, hot sun and rain scatters… Miguel you are a good number cruncher.. how is this?
October 7, 2012 at 11:40 pm
Maybe those machines are in Cuba?
October 8, 2012 at 3:40 pm
Or connected via a fibre optics?
October 7, 2012 at 10:53 pm
The primary merit of the Capriles campaign is that he ran it for all Venezuelans whether rich or poor or whether they previously supported Chavez or not. I think the Capriles roadmap is the way forward. Why? Let me tell you: apart from winning elections, Chavez cannot do anything right. He surrounds himself with sycophants and spearheaded an abysmally failed economy where the government runs everything into the ground. Without petro-wealth, the regime can do nothing and falls apart. In fact, with all that oil, the current system is falling apart. Didn’t Chavez recently call for a “Ministry of Follow-Up”? C’mon!
Capriles attempted to build bridges across the divide. It was valorous attempt that resulted in over 6m votes. But there is no other way other than to rely on Venezuelans eventually maturing enough to see the consequences of their electoral decisions. Yes, electing this incompetent was a mistake but that’s the choice. And the opposition needs to build bridges to acknowledge what is plain for all to see and that is that for all his faults, this guy Chavez captures sympathies in a majority of Venezuelans.
Need to follow the Capriles roadmap. It means running an inclusive campaign for all. Kudos to him. I am proud to have voted for him.
October 7, 2012 at 10:53 pm
I’m here in Caracas, and I’m really sorry for the results. A little rant:
I’m watching the people embracing Capriles and superficially they all look like sifrinos caraquenos. Of course if I had been Venezuelan I would fit nicely into that group myself. However, the fact that such an elite group of people are able to pull out 45% of the votes is suprising in a country where the majority of the people has a president they really identify with on a number of accounts. The Venezuelan “people” woke up in 1999 to believe that they could have president like them that cared for them. The only reason that Capriles and his snobs were able to pull so many votes is that Chavez is such a horrible administrator and president. I believe that for Capriles or possibly Lopez to grow beyond 50% in the future they might need to demonstrate strongly to the (economically) lower two-thirds of Venezuelas population that they really care for them. Unfortunately, Chavez knows this and has successfully managed to sabotage opposition governors’ attempts at helping the people.
Is it likely that credible lower-classed based opposition candidate (or a party) could arise to challenge Chavez? No. From which corrupt corner of Venezuelan politics or labour unions should he arise? Are any of the strong opposition politicians similar to the lower two thirds of the population? No. Will they be? No.
Possibly the only hope for the next elections, given that Globovision and several newspapers might be closed or forced into further obedience and institutions will be further destroyed, is that Chavez does a really horrible job, and that the people pay a sudden (not slow cooked) and high economic and social cost for the mismanagement. Is that likely? Yes. Chavez is a horrible administrator and president and Venezuela is train wreck in full speed rapidly falling apart.
What should the opposition do? Keep working and fighting and take its opportunities in tune with the people, like Capriles has done in this campaign.
I also think it is important for the opposition and all freedom loving people to inform the chavistas of the living conditions of the Cubans and connect this to their mid-term and long-term living conditions, because a lot of those conditions will gradually materialize if Chavez follows the path he suggests. Also, it is necessary to counter Chavez capitalism-badging by pointing out great (pseudo)-capitalist countries like Sweden, Denmark, Netherlands, Switzerland etc, and show how they kick Cuba, Russia and China’s ass. Also, we should explain how Brazil, Costa Rica and Chile has achieved growth.
Another idea that should be pushed is that Chavez is making Venezuela weak (through debt, mismanagement, corruption etc). Because pretty soon chavistas will stare up at the faces of their Chinese, Russian and other capitalist masters, and feel sincerely disempowered.
Finally we can hope that the Cuban people finally stands up and ends their crazy experiment.
And if we wanna make a realistic prayer to god, then prayer for Chavez listening less to his and mind and less to Cuba, and more to China.
Speculating or counting on Cancer is wrong and in any case we should focus and what WE can do, because that will pay off under any scenario.
The worst part of chavismo is not what has happened (except for the crime level) but what will come. That should be used and preempted by the opposition, obviously without sabotaging any effort which could help the country.
October 7, 2012 at 11:10 pm
I don’t think Capriles is personally a snob (or in any case after all that walking any snobbish tendencies must have been worn off), but I think the rest of your rant is on target. Where I work there is a single professional black engineer, the rest are all white. There are apparently TV channels that will not show a black face. And from what I heard from acquaintances is that people were afraid an opposition victory would bring back the times before Chavez. Capriles seems to be a decent person and it’s really a shame for Venezuela that he couldn’t make that vital connection with the Chavez constituency.
I don’t think another 6 years of the same are possible. I don’t think anyone can recover from cancer in 3 months. And the administration’s incompetence must at some point bring everything to a standstill.
October 7, 2012 at 11:59 pm
Most lower class Venezuelans I’ve talked to (they are not my driver and my maid since I don’t have neither), complete look through Capriles fake pueblo face. OK, he is not acting like a snob, but you can’t really picture him hurding cattle in Apure, or pouring steel in Guayana, can you? I still think it was necessary for him to fake it though. I am not at all against having a rich person in power, but people evidently see through the act. Still I really admire his discipline and intelligent campaigning, and if he ever gets into power I hope he will run a pro-active developmental state Asian tiger style government (let’s call it jaguar). I hope his socio-political reference is Israel, not the US.
October 8, 2012 at 12:39 am
it might be better if his socio-political reference was something not loony or messianic, and maybe the jaguar might look to the celtic tiger for inspiration rather than to Asia. If he ever comes to power…
Otherwise I agree with you.
October 8, 2012 at 3:39 pm
Personally I think Capriles is a hero and that Globovision should pull the plug and leave Venezuela while they still can.
October 7, 2012 at 11:39 pm
As Venezuela sinks further into shortages, the Chavistas will be clinging to the nipple of el comediante. Meanwhile, they will continue importing goods from foriegn bourgeosie factories and farms at prices that the domestic bourgeosie cannot match because of price controls and currency exchange rates that are unsustainable. It is inevitale that that nipple will go dry. Then, hope and patience will grow short. Apparently, it hasn’t happened yet.
October 8, 2012 at 12:29 am
You know, in China they kill, torture, and imprison political opponents, so hopefully Chavez will not listen to them either.
October 8, 2012 at 7:23 am
He doesn’t have to listen to foreign torturers. The pranes already do that job quite nicely.
October 8, 2012 at 11:40 am
Hi Paal, interesting rant. And it lines up with the reporting I’ve been doing around Caracas. One of the most interesting conversations I had yesterday was with some pro-Chávez street vendors. They mentioned that they support him even though his mayor has confiscated their goods and chases them out of the plaza. They asked about street vendors in other countries and I mentioned that it’s relatively easy to do in Peru or Mexico, and that the worst I had ever seen was Cuba. That got them thinking. Telling them that the only thing people end up selling on the street is their body — that really got them thinking. And I wasn’t proselytizing for any political camp. I was just telling them what I saw in Cuba.
October 7, 2012 at 10:51 pm
I am depressed and sad for Venezuela. Leaders in China, Cuba, N. Korea, Iran, Hezbollah, etc are sleeping good tonight.
Thanks to all for the discussions over the last few months.
October 8, 2012 at 8:27 am
Argentina, Brazil, Nicaragua, Ecuador, Bolivia, ex-president Zelaya are too.
Who is worse than us??? Dra Afiuni, Simonovis, etc!
October 8, 2012 at 8:34 am
and the Econoinvest directors…
October 7, 2012 at 10:46 pm
I am disgusted with my country. A country that rewards mediocrity and ineptitude has very little future.. An elegant speech from Henrique Capriles, Too elegant for the people of this nation who sell out for a handful of coins. And yet, six million people, nearly half of the nation is no small feat. That is a small consolation at the end of the day.. I find it difficult to hang on to my faith and trust what Henrique so wisely said: God’s time is perfect….With this said, I am incredibly sad tonight.
October 7, 2012 at 10:35 pm
Options: 1. Kowtow. 2. Wait for Chavez to die with crossed fingers. 3. Emigrate. 4. Cross over to the dark side and participate in the thievery. 5. Continue the good fght for democracy despite the fact that over half of adult Venezuelans want their Bolivarian revolution. Admittedly, I came to believe/hope that Capriles would win. My gringo side. Now, much to think about, and re-think.
October 7, 2012 at 10:40 pm
Six more years with a “clear mandate” is too much to take.
October 8, 2012 at 3:13 am
Indeed…
October 8, 2012 at 8:25 am
6 more years????? Its the begining of the end, buddy! We are doomed!
October 8, 2012 at 10:38 am
I agree, I have given up hope, by 2019 he the country will be in full throttle communism. Already it was going to take a long time for the country to get back on track. But now I think either he dies or oil collapses and the FAN have so much pressure that they act against him.
October 7, 2012 at 10:27 pm
Y lo pongo en ingles –
I still do not believe this result. Yes, Capriles accepted defeat, but more and more I believe that all these “elections” are just a show put on by chavez in which we all participate to give him international credibility as a democratic government. I saw this discussion which is getting started about whether a communist government can be taken down by democratic means – http://www.the-counterpoint.com/discussion/V
October 8, 2012 at 6:03 pm
it cannot
October 7, 2012 at 10:24 pm
Yo aun no lo creo… de verdad, se que Capriles acepto de una la derrota, pero mas y mas creo que esto todo es un show de chavez del que todos formamos parte para que el mundo se crea que el es democratico. Aca esta empezando una discusion interesante sobre si un gobierno comunista se puede sacar por vias democraticas – http://www.the-counterpoint.com/discussion/V
October 7, 2012 at 10:36 pm
Andres, to answer your question, “No.”
October 8, 2012 at 10:35 am
There are some good comments on the linked discussion. I agree, unless the country is going through economic collapse and the opposition has an overwhelming majority, I do not think it is possible.
October 7, 2012 at 10:19 pm
Over 250,000 votes voided (votos nulos)
October 7, 2012 at 10:36 pm
That’s just 2%, one fifth of the difference. Not a game changer.
October 7, 2012 at 11:07 pm
Still a lot.
October 7, 2012 at 10:17 pm
CHAVEZ NO SE VA, BITCHES!
October 7, 2012 at 10:23 pm
Asshole!!!!!
October 8, 2012 at 8:23 am
scum bag!
October 8, 2012 at 9:36 am
Chavez no se va!!! It depends, do you believe in The Afterlife??? I don’t so I agree, he won’t go anywhere. He shall disappear from this Universe in less than a year.
October 7, 2012 at 10:15 pm
bummer dudes…….sorry for you people…. its going to be interesting to see what a real serious shit hole Venz wiil be in a few more years…..like some African nation awash in guns and drugs…..no doubt eventually run by the Chinese because all the smart people will be elsewhere and Hugo has sold them the country….
oh wait? or is that Detroit…or DC…or Chicago…
October 7, 2012 at 10:08 pm
So. The electorate chooses a sick and dying man to lead their country, rejecting a new direction and fresh ideas. We live in interesting times.
That said, it’s probably better than if they had chosen a healthy Chavez. I have heard perhaps three fireworks on Margarita. Not much celebrating here.
I imagine plane reservations will be hard to get.
October 7, 2012 at 10:05 pm
I have a hard time believing 80% participation
October 8, 2012 at 8:53 am
I believe it, every voting center had long lines. Here in Puerto la Cruz the lines were the longest i have ever seen. And they were moving fast.
October 7, 2012 at 10:05 pm
Gracias Diablo for being the best, most reliable blog. I wish the news would have been different. Buenas noches!
October 7, 2012 at 10:05 pm
Depressing is an understatement. Venezuela is cursed.
October 7, 2012 at 10:02 pm
[…] Beats Capriles by One Million Votes Posted at 11:16 on October 7, 2012 by Jim Hoft FINAL UPDATE: Chavez wins re-election. Chavez wins by over one million events. Hugo Chávez Frías 54.42% Henrique Capriles Radonzky […]
October 7, 2012 at 10:01 pm
Pedro, I agree with you about Ernesto’s remark about Obama. I also agree that this discussion is for another day. Mis más sentidos pésames al pueblo de Venezuela.
October 7, 2012 at 9:58 pm
Just a question, if the voting machines are electronic how do you insure that there is no tampering?
October 7, 2012 at 9:57 pm
So is there anybody here who truly believes that over 13.6 million people voted today?
October 7, 2012 at 9:48 pm
Not true, Ernesto, not true (regarding Obama). But let’s leave that discussion to another day.
October 8, 2012 at 12:50 am
Oh, it’s definitely true. They are very close on every thing.
October 8, 2012 at 3:11 am
Obama is not subverting the constitution order, nor steamrolling human rights, no endorsing discriminatory practices against citizens based on political belief, race or social status. Chavez does.
October 8, 2012 at 9:41 am
I agree that in the US they are not streamrolling human rights.
But what about all these examples:
Obama is subverting the constitution by governing through executive order -does it sound like Chavez? – over 900 executive orders in 3.5 years (leftist love to compare with “evil” George Bush who in 8 years issued 63). Obama does not even try to work with Congress to pass or change laws instead he orders the Justice Department (and others) to NOT enforce the laws his administration does not like. Now people will say “it’s the Republicans that obstruct”, well, guess what, that is the role of Congress, otherwise it would be a dictatorship of the majority.
Don’t tell me that behavior is not exactly as Chavez’.
What about the constant railing against rich people – does that sound like Chavez? Day after day. Did you hear his “they (the rich) didn’t build that” comment?
What about the constant attacks on the only center-to-conservative network left, FOX News. Doesn’t it sound like the attacks on Globovision?
I grant that the attacks have slowed down lately but prior to the mid terms in 2010 it was disgusting.
What about his telling the russian Medvedev to tell Putin to give him until after the election so “he’ll have more flexibility because it’s his last election”. How do you like that? Flexibility for what? to give the house away?
Want more?
October 8, 2012 at 10:05 am
Do research for about 2 minutes and you will find the executive order issue us a complete fabrication. It turns out that not everything sent to you in an email is actually true.
October 8, 2012 at 1:38 pm
Ernesto, there is a HUGE difference between Chavez and Obama. Last time I checked, Obama does not control the supreme court, is not throwing judges into jails, does not control the central bank, is not nationalizing companies, did not change the constitution, is not using a campaign of intimidation against his opponents…. etc. etc…. The biggest sin that Obama did in the eyes of conservatives is provide modest health insurance reform so that people with preexisting conditions could have insurance in the private market. The horror! Watch this before you comment further:
October 7, 2012 at 9:47 pm
I guess that even after all the extraordinary effort by the opposition, the truth is that Venezuelans–the ones who voted for Chavez–do not deserve a democratic and progressive president. I feel sorry for Venezuela (my second country and home) because of what another six years of Chavez will do. I don’t believe in his promise that he will be a better president this time around!!! Only idiots believe that lie!!!
October 7, 2012 at 9:47 pm
Miguel, I can’t wait for the day when brilliant people like yourself and Daniel will realize that Chavez will never lose by elections.
Next election is in the US.
I also can’t understand is how people that oppose Chavismo can be for Obama and repeat stupid concepts like Republicans are racists or Romney is to extreme. Obama = Chavez.
October 7, 2012 at 10:08 pm
what?
That was ridiculous.
October 7, 2012 at 11:31 pm
Truly ridiculous. Actually outrageously dumb.
October 8, 2012 at 4:13 pm
Yep, silly and I am a knuckle dragging rethuglican.
October 7, 2012 at 10:22 pm
Not all Republicans are racists and Romney is not extreme. And Obama is definitely not Chavez. But that can wait for another time.
October 8, 2012 at 12:49 am
They are exactly the same. They really are. Obama is a Fascist from the depths of hell intent on destroying the US, he hates this country
October 8, 2012 at 8:16 am
Oh my fucking gatos!!!! Please, read!!!!!! Inform yourself before you type or share your ignorance online!
October 8, 2012 at 3:45 am
so true, my analisys before the eleccion was exactly this: chavez can’t be removed by a socialdemocrat softy. although i hoped to be wrong. it’s a old phenomenom of venezuelan society, that they will follow a caudillo no matter what. he can only lose against an other caudillo who has at least the same carisma and power to lead the masses as he does. or that peoples actualy will vote against him (it’s a difference to vote against somebody or to vote in favor of the oposition). socialdemocraty has no future in venezuela. let’s take the example of colombia with alvaro uribe!
October 8, 2012 at 8:13 am
What????????? Any Venezuelan would love to have Obama as a president! You don’t know what you are talking about! You are talking out of your ass!
Romney is too rich to even know what middle class feels like, let alone poverty levels. Did you know he made 13 million bucks last year???? Do you know he keeps his money in overseas banks that pay no taxes in the US??? I could go on and on but judging by your comment, its not worth it since you have no clue what you are talking about.
October 8, 2012 at 11:00 am
Do you realize that most of what you just said could have been spoken verbatim by Chavez or his followers? Go ahead and “…go on and on…” with your statements of resentment, you are living proof of why Chavez won, although you voted for Capriles.
Just as a btw, for a US citizen, it is not illegal to have ones money anywhere in the world, but you have to pay tax on interest, dividends, realized capital gains and the like, just as if you had your money in the US. Oh my, ignorance is alive and well. Why am I not surprised?
October 8, 2012 at 11:06 am
Dont want to get into US politics, but read about the Foreign tax credit, is the only way to lower your rate below the alternative minimum tax rate, which that candidate did.
October 8, 2012 at 11:45 am
Neither do I, but with all due respect, she states “paid NO taxes” (emphasis added) which is not true. But even if he didn’t, it wouldn’t be BECAUSE of having money in foreign accounts.
October 7, 2012 at 9:45 pm
Miguel, sometimes there comes a time to leave your country for a better place. Many Cubans already know this. I know this – I’ve done it. I find that it is better to distance yourself from a hopeless situation rather than hoping against all odds. Come to Canada, where I am now, we will welcome you with open arms.
October 8, 2012 at 12:14 am
Sorry Pedro, we’ve already got him in Miami. Venezuela’s loss, America’s gain. Thank you, Chavez (and Castro)!
October 7, 2012 at 9:45 pm
Eso es lo que me falta, que haya sido el Zulia el que la cago mas. No, really, I’m down, kick me some more.
October 8, 2012 at 8:08 am
Seriously???? Do you really think that he won in 20 of the 22 states??? Do you really think Zulia is chavista??? Carabobo????? Nueva Esparta????? I don’t think Zulia la cago! I think the fucking chavista outsmarted us. Even in movies, the good prevails! Even in the horror films, the bad guy gets shot. So what happened here?????
Another thing that has surprised me, their celebrating. They are way to quiet!!!
October 10, 2012 at 8:32 pm
de bolas, las primarias fueron una guerra entre la oposición caraqueña y la oposición zuliana, gano la caraqueña. luego de destruir moralmente a la oposición zuliana, y después se preguntan por que muchos zulianos prefirieron a chavez que a capriles! really?
aquí, mucha gente todavía recuerda el “Un maracucho no puede ser presidente” que tanto rodó por las redes sociales…
ustedes pusieron al riquito de capriles y lo trataron de transformar en un pobreton, recojan los frutos de sus decisiones, con toda la mierda q estaba padeciendo el chavismo, los abstencionistas de las pasadas elecciones prefirieron irse con la mierda q con el rico.
October 7, 2012 at 9:41 pm
Lightning analysis: After years of media domination, shutting down of unfriendly media outlets, intimidation of opponents, dumbing down and bribing of the electorate, and corruption in every level, the Chavez del Ocho managed to ensure that he will die from cancer while in office.
October 8, 2012 at 10:43 am
So it looks like the opposition has declared defeat for the next 6 years. I was amazed at how complacent Capriles sounded during his last speech. Of course, Carter Center did not help matters at all, after all he said that Venezuela had the best electoral system in the world (http://www.the-counterpoint.com/discussion/N). But I did expect the opposition leadership to put one a bit more “this is not over” talk last night. Should the opposition accept defeat? http://www.the-counterpoint.com/discussion/E.
On with the sad day.
October 8, 2012 at 1:32 pm
I think Capriles only accepted defeat to avoid a civil war. He is being the statesman that Chavez could never be.
October 8, 2012 at 1:37 pm
Yes, but is essentially demoralizing the opposition and I believe ending any chance that his presidency may end earlier than 2019.
October 7, 2012 at 9:39 pm
Thank you for your work. I’m at a loss for words.